The Buffalo Bills are in the Big Easy for Thanksgiving taking on the host Saints Thursday night. The home team enters off three consecutive losses with the last coming in Philly against the Eagles losing 40 to 29. That score is misleading in that the Saints were never really in the contest. Their offense was silent for the better part of three quarters with a short touchdown drive of less than ten yards their only score. They filled the rest of the time turning the ball over and punting. The Saints injury report tells the story they are playing with subs and its obvious they’re in trouble. Looking at their scoring over those three losses we see they managed to score at least twenty points in each of those games. The scoring has been much like that of the Philly game though they are not rolling out of the locker room lighting up the scoreboard. We know they are off four straight overs and a couple years ago this game would have deserved a second look at this number, times have changed. Late season less than double-digit underdogs coming off four straight overs and playing to a total of less than fifty are 11-27 Under including 1-9 Under the last ten. This week the injury riddled Saints face possibly the best but certainly one of the best defenses in the league. The Bills opened the 21-campaign putting up big numbers until their 34 to 31 loss to the Titans. They put up just twenty-six against Miami followed that up with just six points in Jacksonville. The next outing was against a horrible Jets team, and they did score 45 in the win but last week they reverted to the offensive struggles that have plagued them recently losing to Indy and scoring just 15. Late season teams coming off a home game where they allowed at least forty points with a current total of forty-eight or fewer points have seen their next game go 3-16-1 Under. The TPR Index has a projected point total for the game of 38.07 points. The MM projects a point differential of -6.77 against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 71.96 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number. The OFF-DEF splits favor the low side of the games total with the Saints projected ODS -3.89 while the Bills come in with a projected ODS of -3.03. Play Under on NFL teams coming off a loss as a favorite facing a team coming off a road game where both teams scored at least twenty-four points, 12-38 Under for seventy-eight percent winners to the low side. With significant support from both teams for the under we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers total Thursday night in the Big Easy.