Week 13’s final matchup takes us to the Mile High City where the Horses play host to the visiting Brownies under the Monday Night Lights. Cleveland comes into this game riding high after backup QB Jameis Winston led them to a win over divisional rival Pittsburgh at home in the snow winning 24 to 19 as +3.5-point home underdogs. That’s great for the Browns picking up that win but it sets them up in a situation where they have been terrible. You want to play against the Browns coming off a home win versus a divisional rival because they are a perfect 0-6 ATS in this situation. Even with that nice victory over the Steelers the Browns are 3-8 SU and have a very tough schedule remaining. The chance of the Browns making the postseason is just too far out of reach. Once the buzz wears off from that win the realization of what’s ahead hits like a ton of bricks beginning tonight. Browns QB Jameis Winston has done a nice job of getting his team motivated, but you know the hammer is about to fall on this Browns offense and team. In Weeks 2-16, play AGAINST a team off a SU win over Pittsburgh in its last game vs. an opponent not off a SU win as a home favorite of 3+ points in its last game, 55-31 ATS (64%)(+$2,090). For Denver their rookie QB Bo Nix has thrown for 795 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions over their last three games. The Horses defense have played their part and ranked second in scoring allowing opponents to average just 16.8 points per game. Pressure is a key factor in their defense, and they could very well force Winston into the mistakes he is famous for. Our Momentum Matrixes project a pair of teams heading in opposite directions. The Browns qualify in a Reverse Momentum Matrix situation with Cleveland coming in with an average of only 4.64 out of a possible 10.0 in that Matrix. The Matrix has them in a letdown situation after such a huge home win over Pittsburgh. The Broncos come in with an average of 7.06 out of a possible 10.0 (unlike the college game where the regular Momentum Matrix has a top number of 12.0) in the regular Momentum Matrix. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 11.8 points. The MM projects a point differential of +5.92 points against the current line range. The SIM Matrix has the Denver Broncos with a 73.90 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number tonight. The OFF-DEF split projections give the Broncos a projected point advantage of 11.15 points. The Broncos are heading into their bye week after this game so we should see an all-out effort from the Horses. Play ON NFL home team prior to their bye week when it comes in Week Eight or later in the season, 72-37-2 ATS! Rookie starting QB’s as home favorites are 36-11 SU and 33-13-1 ATS (72%). We want to back rookie quarterbacks under the lights on Monday night football because they are 19-5-1 ATS (79%) over the last twenty-five games. We also know that rookie quarterbacks have done a nice job against non-divisional conference foes when it comes to covering the spread, they have posted a record of 60-44-1 ATS (58%). Play ON a Monday home favorite of more than 2 points off a SU win of less than 14 points trailing at halftime last week vs. an opponent not off 7 SU losses in its last 7 games, 23-6 ATS (79%)(+$1,640). From Game 7 on, play AGAINST a non-Saturday .500% or worse road underdog of 7 points or less with a TOTAL under 51 points off a home underdog SU win in its last game vs. a +.500% opponent off a road contest in its last game, 27-7 ATS (79%)(+$1,930). With significant support for the Horses, we will lay the chalk on Monday night in Mile High City as the Broncos bring the Browns back down to earth. GAME PREDICTION: 8* DENVER BRONCOS 31 CLEVELAND BROWNS 20