The accomplishment of soon-to-be NFL Rookie of the Year Commanders’ quarterback Jayden Daniels has been tantamount to their success. His 100.1 QB Rating blows Sam Howell’s 78.9 QB Rating last season out of the water. And for what it’s worth, this will mark the first Wild Card game since 2020 to feature a pair of teams that averages over 28 points per game in the regular season. With the Bucs 9-2 ATS coming off a SU win and ATS loss, and Washington riding a five-game playoff losing skein, look for QB Baker Mayfield to improve to 4-1 ATS in his NFL playoff career.

The Bills were 2-3 against teams that have reached the playoffs, allowing 108 more yards per game against playoff teams vs. non-playoff teams. Buffalo’s defense also allowed 33 points a contest vs. playoff teams, the fourth-most all-time by a playoff team. The only teams in 2024 to allow more points per game vs. current playoff teams were the Patriots, Titans, and the Bengals – and they’re all on vacation. And it should be noted that Denver led the NFL in quarterback sacks with 63 this season. You can’t fade Sean Payton’s 40-25-2 ATS career dog log.

Green Bay paid a heavy toll in last week’s stunning loss to the double-digit underdog Bears. Not only would a win have moved the Pack up to the No. 6 seed, but QB Jordan Love left the game with an elbow injury, and star WR Christian Watson suffered a non-contact season-ending knee injury. Thus, they limp into the playoffs on a two-game losing streak with more question marks than the Riddler. In addition, Green Bay was 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against foes with a win percentage greater than .615 this season.

The Ottawa Senators are getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and this line makes no sense. The Senators have lost six of their last eight games and their offense continues to come up short. The Dallas Stars have won seven straight games and haven't lost since December 27. The Stars have scored three or more goals in six of their last eight games. If that sort of production continues, the struggling Senators are going to have a hard time keeping up. The Stars also blasted the Senators a little over a week ago by a score of 4-2. Why this line is so soft is a bit puzzling. The Stars are one of the better teams in the league, and the Senators can't get out of their own way. I'll gladly lay the cheap price with the Stars on the road, one of the better bets on Sunday's NHL card.

The expectation is that the Bucks will have their full complement of stars for this one and considering how well they have been playing of late, they'll be able to keep momentum going in the right direction. Not only will they cover the spread but they'll get the win as well. The Knicks have played well in this series of late but it wasn't long ago that the Bucks had won seven in a row before injuries derailed their dominance. The Bucks have Giannis, who is a matchup nightmare for New York, and the Bucks might be one of the few teams in the league that have the size to match New York and take away their advantage on the glass. With great efficiency numbers on both ends and covering the spread in two of their last three, they'll see those trends carry over into this meeting.

The Sacramento Kings may have to play without their leading scorer De’AaronFox but did not have the point guard Friday against Boston and were victorious. DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis continue to play well for Sacramento averaging a combined 41.6 points per game. The two hand out a combined 10.1 assists per game and grab a combined 18.0 rebounds per game. Sacramento has won each of its last six straight up and is 5-1 ATS over that span. The Kings are 4-1 ATS in the last five against Chicago and Sacramento is 14-4-1 ATS in the last 19 games played on the road against the Bulls. Chicago has struggled defensively, allowing 120.8 points per game which is 29th or next to last in the NBA.

The Celtics fell to 13-7 at home after losing to the Kings on Friday night. The Pelicans come in after a big win in Philadelphia on Friday and should likely have Zion Williamson back in the starting lineup after his one-game suspension. The Celtics are healthier than they've been in a while, with their traditional starting five ready to go. Offensively, they are far superior to the banged-up Pelicans, even with Williamson. The Celtics are also the better defensive team and should be motivated to perform on Sunday night. The Pelicans are just 24th in the NBA in 3-point defense and the Celtics shoot the three-point ball more than any team in the NBA. Expect the Celtics to find the range on Sunday and dominate the Pelicans on the wing, particularly with the Pelicans down their best defensive player, Jones. Boston pulls away for a comfortable win.

The Suns made only eight of their 33 attempts from deep at Spectrum Center in Charlotte. They posted a solid 27/11 assist-to-turnover ratio, but the Suns’ rebounding was awful, and Phoenix allowed too many easy baskets to the Hornets. I think the Suns can only play better this time even though they will have to deal with fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back. Even their struggling defense was good enough to keep the Hornets under 40 percent from the field. With a better offensive display at home, the Suns should win and cover the spread.

Expect a bounce-back game from the Nittany Lions after their dismal performance at Illinois this week. The Lions are an elite shooting team but shot the ball just 30 percent from the floor against the Illini and, according to their coach, pressed even more when shots weren't falling. Back home in the friendly confines of Bryce Jordan Center, the Lions will find their shooting touch again against the Ducks. The Ducks are on the road again for the second straight game, and there may be some road weariness as the team adjusts to this new Big Ten schedule that finds them traveling halfway across the country this season for two games at a time. This is also a critical game for the Nittany Lions, needing quality home wins like this in order to build a tournament resume for the season. Road wins are hard to come by in the Big Ten, particularly two straight. The Ducks will have to deal with Penn State's harassing defense, fifth in the nation in forced turnovers, leading to easy buckets for Penn State. The Lions will roll today.

This game is going to all come down to the Purdue defense and if they can make enough stops. Purdue has been playing better defense the last couple of games, but overall, they haven’t been exactly elite, and their defense isn’t going to be as good as they usually are. This Nebraska offense has all kinds of playmakers, including Brice Williams and that will end up being the difference. Nebraska is going to get scoring from all over the court, and that will be the difference here as Nebraska is going to end up getting the job done. Back Nebraska against the spread here.