We are in the ATL where the hometown Atlanta Braves are playing host to the San Francisco Giants for a three-game series with Game One tonight. The Giants have struggled out of the gate in the 26 campaign. They are still searching for their identity. San Francisco went 2-4 on their most recent homestand and has lost five of its last eight games overall. The Giants have the second-worst record in the National League. Tonight they face a Braves team that has finally cooled off a bit after dominating the first two months of the season. It is the worst stretch of the season for the team that has the best record in the majors, dropping consecutive series after losing just two of their first twenty-one series. The Braves should get back to their winning ways tonight being back at home. Atlanta has won five of their last six at home and they are 22-11 in the ATL. The Braves got good news with the return of catcher Drake Baldwin who is back from the injured list on Tuesday night. Baldwin has been out since mid-May with a strained oblique, but he brings his bat back to the lineup tonight. He homered in his first rehab game with Triple-A Gwinnett on Saturday, but Sunday’s game was rained out. We mention him because he is a very important player for this Braves club. When he left the lineup in May he was hitting .303 with thirteen homeruns and thirty-eight RBIs in forty-eight games. The Giants will send Adrian Houser to the hill with his record of 2-6 SU, an ERA of 5.54 and a WHIP of 1.54 over sixty-five innings of work this season. Houser has allowed seventeen hits and nine earned runs in his last twelve innings. The Giants have lost eight of his thirteen starts, seven of them by at least two runs. In his last four starts Houser has not made it past the fifth inning in any of those games. Houser is 0-5 with a 5.19 ERA and twenty-seven strikeouts in his career against the Braves. He has an 8.49 ERA over his last three appearances in Atlanta. He is backed up by a bullpen that has an ERA almost 1.5 runs higher than the Braves bullpen which is the best in the majors with an ERA of just 2.82 this season. The Braves bullpen has allowed just three earned runs in their last twenty-one innings. The Giants bullpen has allowed fourteen runs in their last nineteen innings. Atlanta will send Grant Holmes to the mound with his record of 4-2 SU, an ERA of 4.05, and a WHIP of 1.34 through sixty-six innings of work this season. As we mentioned he will be backed up by the best bullpen in the majors this season. Holmes is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA and ten strikeouts in his career against the Giants. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 2.26 runs. The SPMatrix has Grant Holmes with an average of 7.21 compared to Adrian Houser who has an average of 4.23. Our next set of metrics looks at the overall Pitchers Power Ratings. Coming into this game and situation Holmes has a rating of 129 while Early has a rating of 79 with the league average of 100. The SIM Matrix has the Atlanta Braves with a 74.16 percent advantage against the -1.5-run line in tonight’s contest. The Braves qualify in our Reverse Momentum Matrix as the play ON team. The Braves are trending solidly in the reverse matrix with a projected run advantage of 2.14 runs over the Giants tonight. The Giants are trending in negative numbers across the entire matrix which has them with a projected run differential of -2.58 against the Braves tonight. Play ON MLB teams coached by Walt Weiss and winning more than forty-four percent of their games with the starter’s last outing had a runs of four or less, 24-9 ATS (73%)(+$1,751). Play ON MLB teams coached by Walt Weiss and it is Games One or Two of the series and when the starter’s last outing failed to qualify as a quality start, 18-6 ATS (75%)(+$1,410). We will back the better team returning home and looking to get back in the win column tonight. Lay the run line of -1.5 as the Braves get a big win on their return to the ATL. PREDICTION: 9* ATLANTA BRAVES 5 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 3