[FOX] The Baltimore Ravens travel north to face the host New England Patriots Sunday afternoon. The Ravens have public backing this week in fact it’s huge support with more than seventy percent of the money coming in on the Black Birds. They must believe the Ravens are “due” for a big performance after blowing a 35 to 14 fourth quarter lead to the Fins last week. A record collapse by the Black Birds has motivated the betting public against this Patriots team. The Ravens became the first NFL team in twelve years to blow a twenty-0ne-point fourth quarter lead. The Patriots defense held Miami and Pittsburgh to two touchdowns each. While their offense primarily their passing attack has shown improvement. In their victory over the Steelers, they held a 376 to 243 yardage advantage. That could be the key difference in this game with the Black Birds secondary limited with four of their top corners either out with injuries or playing hurt and not at one hundred percent. Belichick and his troops are 40-21-1 ATS when facing a team in this situation coming off a straight up favorite loss including a perfect 4-0 ATS at home as an underdog. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 3-10-3 against the spread as a favorite coming off a straight up favorite loss including 0-9-3 ATS if favored by three or more points. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 5.79 points in favor of the home team. The MM projects a point differential of -7.92 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have a projected point differential of +7.45. The SIM Matrix has New England with a 73.98 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s game. Play AGAINST NFL teams with a total of forty-five or less coming off a home SU loss as a favorite of less than thirteen points in a game against Miami last week. These teams are 9-27 ATS covering just twenty-five percent in this situation. With solid support for the home team, we will take the points as the Patriots shock the Black Birds on Sunday afternoon. PATRIOTS

[FOX] The Green Bay Packers are on the road in Cigar City for a late afternoon battle against the Cigar City Buccaneers. The Packers catch the Bucs at a good time of the season with Tampa Bay’s offense suffering from multiple player injuries. One of Brady’s favorite targets Mike Evans is out for this game (suspension). The trouble doesn’t end there as wide receivers Chris Godwin and Julio Jones both missed last week due to injuries and will not be at full speed today even if they play. The offensive line has a cluster of injured personnel with some out and others walking wounded. The main reason for the Bucs 2-0 record is their defense which will be tested today by a now healthy offensive line of the Packers. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 6.06 points in favor of the road team. The MM projects a point differential of -7.90 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have a projected point differential of +7.44. The SIM Matrix has Green Bay with a 73.92 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s game. The Packers for some reason get a boost after facing the Bears they are 14-2 against the spread in that situation. We are not big on revenge it is the most overused theory by handicappers. But we believe there are situations where its warranted and this might be one of those situations. The Packers are 4-1 ATS when playing with double revenge while the Packers are only 2-8 ATS at home playing into double revenge. With solid support for the road team, we are going to back the healthier and better coached team on Sunday afternoon in Cigar City. PACKERS

[CBS] The Kansas City Chiefs hit the highway for a trip to Indianapolis where they will take on the host Colts Sunday afternoon. Many times, you will see teams play to consistently play to the low or high side when facing certain teams even if it is out of character for them overall. We have one of those situations today. Recently this series has been an Under series with the last four meetings finishing on the low side of the total. In those games we had an average total of 48.5 points with the teams combing to average just 34.8 points over that four-game span producing a total margin of -13.7 points per game. The TPR Index projects a game point total average of 43.76 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -7.99 against the current total range. The SIM Matrix has the UNDER with a 73.91 percent advantage against the oddsmakers total. The projected OFF-DEF splits have the UNDER with a significant advantage. The combined average for both teams from the OFF-DEF splits has a projected game total average of -7.86 against the oddsmakers total. We want to play Under on NFL Game Three undefeated road favorites of more than three points because they are 11-28-3 Under including 3-16-1 Under if the total is less than fifty-four points. Play Under on NFL home teams coming off a division shutout loss with a total line of more than forty-three points, 1-10 Under. With solid situational support along with strong fundamental support for the low side we will play this one to come up well short of the oddsmakers total on Sunday afternoon in Indy. UNDER