The boys from DC are north of the border playing a weekend set versus the Blue Jays of Toronto with Game Two set for Saturday afternoon. The Blue Jays took the opener on Friday night by a score of 6 to 5 over the Nationals. The Blue Jays will try to secure the series victory with a win on Saturday afternoon. They will send right-hander Marco Estrada to the bump with his 3-6 SU record and his ERA of 5.09 on the season. Estrada appears to have turned his season around going 1-0 SU with an ERA of 2.25 over his two trips to the bump in June. In his last outing the Blue Jays got the win versus Baltimore on Sunday but Estrada gave up two long balls which accounted for the two runs he has given up this month. Over his seventy innings of work this season Estrada has surrendered fourteen of the long ones. The Nationals will counter with right-hander Max Scherzer who has a record of 10-2 SU with an ERA of 2.00 on the season. Scherzer suffered a rare loss which halted his nine-game winning streak in the game he allowed just two runs with four hits over seven innings of work against the Giants striking out nine in the loss on Sunday. Scherzer has held opposing hitters to a batting average of just .171 over the course of the season. Scherzer is a perfect 3-0 SU with an ERA of 1.98 in four trips to the hill at the Rogers Centre. This pitching matchup faced one another way back in 2015 with Estrada and his team won the game 7 to 3. That matchup does not qualify in our Starting Pitcher Reverse System it must be a same-season rematch just like the Cubs win last night. I mentioned this because we will get an email asking why this matchup didn’t qualify in our system. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 2.04 runs in favor of the Nationals. The SIM Matrix has Washington with a 74.39 percent (74+% / SPM Differential +4.0 or more qualifies Washington as a Trophy Club Best Bet) advantage against the Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Marco Estrada has an average for this game of 76 and Max Scherzer comes into this game with an average of 144 compared to the league average of 100. The higher the pitchers average the better they should perform in the current situation. The SPMatrix has Marco Estrada with an average of 4.80 and Max Scherzer has an average of 9.98. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 2.23 runs in favor of the Blue Jays in this contest. We want to play AGAINST MLB teams when their starter struck out at least nine batters in his last start and went less than seven innings (339-288 SU +1258 against). Play AGAINST MLB home underdogs coming off a home game in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs (971-1374 SU +8217 when playing against). The Blue Jays are 94-150 SU as an underdog for a profit of +2662 units when playing against them in this situation. The Blue Jays are 4-14 SU as a home underdog for a profit of +876 units when playing against them in this role. We want to play ON MLB road favorites coming off a road game in which they had more strikeouts than hits (1017-766 SU +2380). We want to play ON MLB -120 or more favorites coming off a straight up loss in a game in which they held the lead (334-189 SU +3730). We want to play ON MLB road favorites after they lost in his last start versus the current opponent (559-387 SU +4776). Play ON MLB -120 or more favorites coming off a straight up loss in a game in which they held the lead (190-87 SU +4789). The Nationals are 300-240 SU on the road (+3974). The Nationals are 200-108 SU (+5091) as a road favorite. The Nationals have the advantage on offense and on the defensive side as well the overall advantage is not close. Washington and Scherzer will get the victory and tie this series at a game apiece. Lay the large number with the Nationals on Saturday afternoon north of the border.