The NFL season has arrived, and we head north for our first NFL Sunday Night Game of the Week Top Play. The Dallas Cowboys are in East Rutherford New Jersey where they will face off against the host New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. The Cowboys finished last season with a 7-9-1 SU record ranked fifth offensively at 0.06 EPA per play, a plus 0.12 per pass and a forty-six percent success rate. To understand why they had a losing record all you must do is look on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas finished last defensively with a plus 0.13 EPA allowed, giving up 511 points with an allowed success rate of forty-eight percent. The Giants finished 4-13 on the year with a just below average offense and a weak defense but not as bad as the Cowboys. On the injury front there is one key player missing for the Cowboys. All-Pro left guard Tyler Smith needed thumb surgery and is on the injured reserve list this week. This is a huge loss for the Cowboys offense and Prescott who will certainly be concerned about his backside and the communication on the line with Smiths absence. The Dallas defense has seen some major changes, and it needed that, but the changes are untested in real game situations. The Dallas defense was the only unit in the NFL to allow more than thirty points per game last season. They have a long way to go to see improvement from that type of failure. The Giants are excited about the start of the new season under new head coach John Harbaugh and his staff. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 2.23 points in favor of the Giants. The MM projects a point differential of -5.91 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have a projected point differential of -4.86 also in favor of the Giants. The SIM Matrix has the Giants with a 74.17 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s game. Play AGAINST NFL early season conference favorites who had seven or fewer wins last season, 361-265 ATS (58%)(+$3,520). Play AGAINST NFL Week 1 teams that averaged more than twenty-six points per game last season and not facing a fellow high-scoring team, 27-41 ATS (39%). Play ON NFL home underdogs on Sunday night games, 28-19-2 ATS (60%). Play ON NFL Week One underdogs who won six or fewer games last season, 141-100 ATS (59%)(+$3,100). With significant support for the home team, we will take the points and back the G-Men on Sunday night in Jersey. GAME PREDICTION: 9* NEW YORK GIANTS 24 DALLAS COWBOYS 21

We make our way to Texas on Sunday afternoon where the Buffalo Bills are on the road in Houston to take on the host Texans. There is a new man in Buffalo as the Sean McDermott era came to an end. In steps Joe Brady with all the pressure and high expectations leftover by the McDermott era. How will the new look Bills fare against a team that has been a thorn in their side at times. Last year the Texans defense put a beatdown on Bills QB Josh Allen. In their game he was sacked eight times with the Bills also turning it over three times. Rookie NFL coaches installed as four or fewer point road favorites are 71-88-10 ATS (44%) the last ten seasons. NFL teams that averaged more than twenty-six points per game last season are play-against teams in Week 1 of the new season posting a record of 27-41 ATS (39%) since the 13 campaign. The Texans come into this contest with the more established team overall and their defense should once again make the difference in the outcome of this one. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 3.69 points in favor of the Texans. The MM projects a point differential of -5.07 points against the current line range in this contest. The OFF-DEF splits have a projected point differential of -4.93 also in favor of the Texans. The SIM Matrix has the Texans with a 73.97 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in today’s game. Play ON NFL Week One teams that allowed less than twenty-points per game last season and not facing a team that also allowed fewer than twenty-points per game last season, 30-10 SU and 27-13 ATS (68%). Play ON NFL small conference underdogs in the first three weeks of the new season, 303-248 ATS (55%)(+$3,020). With significant support for the home team, we will take the points as the Texans get the best of the Bills on Sunday afternoon in Texas. GAME PREDICTION: 8* HOUSTON TEXANS 23 BUFFALO BILLS 20

On Sunday night we are back on the west coast where the San Diego Padres have traveled to play a weekend set against the host San Francisco Giants. The Padres are 80-68 SU this year. The Padres are batting .239 on the season, with an OBP of .316, and have a slugging percentage of.390. The Padres’ pitching staff has an ERA of 3.91 and a WHIP of 1.28 this season. San Diego will hand the ball to Nick Pivetta with his record of 2-2 SU, an ERA of 3.43, and a WHIP of 0.95. He is 0-1 SU on the road with an ERA of 3.60, and a WHIP of 1.00. Pivetta is 5-1 SU with an ERA of 3.83 in his career against the Giants. The San Francisco Giants are 62-87 on the year and play the Cardinals and Dodgers next. The Giants are batting .247 on the season, with an OBP of .308, and a slugging percentage of .408 this season. The Giants’ pitching staff has an ERA of 4.37 and a WHIP of 1.37. The Giants will send Logan Webb to the mound with his record of 8-8 SU, an ERA of 4.10, and a WHIP of 1.15 this season. At home Webb has posted a record of 4-4 SU, with an ERA of 3.39, and a WHIP of 1.00 this year. He will face the Padres for the third time this season, having split decisions in the two earlier matchups, allowing nine runs in ten innings of work. In his career he has posted a record of 5-6 SU with an ERA of 3.60 in nineteen career appearances eighteen of those were starts versus the Padres. Webb in his last five starts has an ERA of 7.15 with a WHIP of 1.54. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.44 runs. The SPMatrix has Nick Pivetta with an average of 5.77 compared to Logan Webb who has an average of 4.95. Our next set of metrics looks at the overall Pitchers Power Ratings. Coming into this game and situation Pivetta has a rating of 107 while Webb has a rating of 89 with the league average of 100. The SIM Matrix has the San Diego Padres with a 73.97 percent advantage against the San Francisco Giants in tonight’s contest. Play ON MLB road favorites of -130 or more after they had a comeback win that was not their first of the season, 1118-625 SU (64%)(+$13,814) including 24-13 SU (65%). With the edge on the mound and at the plate we will lay the chalk with the Friars on Sunday night as they get the win over the Giants on Sunday night. PREDICTION: 8* SAN DIEGO PADRES 4 SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 3