The Kansas City Royals are in Detroit playing a four-game weekend set against the host Tigers with the final game on Sunday afternoon. The Tigers offense was rolling on Saturday defeating the Royals 12 to 4 to take a 2 games to 1 lead in the four-game set. The Royals will send left-hander Eric Skoglund to the bump with his 0-2 SU record and his ERA of 9.31 on the year. Skoglund has struggled through his first two trips to the hill, right-handed batters are a problem for him as you can see by their average against his which is .382 this season. Skoglund opened the 18 campaign against Seattle who scored five runs on six hits over 4 2/3 innings of work in the 8 to 3 loss to the Mainers. He took the mound again on Tuesday and the Blue Jays repeated the process by scoring five runs on eight hits in just five innings versus Skoglund. The Tigers will send Francisco Liriano to the hill with his 2-1 SU record and his ERA of 2.55 on the season. Liriano makes his fourth start and his second against Kansas City, having beaten them in his season debut with 6 2/3 innings of one-run ball. He tossed another quality start in his next outing but unfortunately took the loss despite working six innings allowing just two runs over that span. In his last outing he tossed five innings allowing just two earned runs in the 4 to 2 victory over the Orioles. Our TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.68 runs in favor of the Tigers. Our next set of metrics gives us an overall Pitchers Power Rating based on the situation. In this matrix Eric Skoglund has an average for this game of 88 and Francisco Liriano comes into this game with an average of 112 compared to the league average of 100. The higher the pitchers average the better they should perform in the current situation. Our BHOR (Bases, Hits, Outs and Runs) Matrix has a projected advantage of 1.73 runs in favor of the Tigers in this contest. The Royals have really struggled in the role of underdog with a record of 9-34 SU winning just twenty percent of the time in this role producing a profit of +2016 units when playing against them in the role of underdog. Kansas City is just 15-27 SU winning just thirty-five percent of the time on the road producing a profit of +888 units when playing against them in this situation. The Royals are 7-21 SU winning just twenty-five percent of the time as a road underdog producing a profit of +1026 units when playing against them. We want to play AGAINST weekend road underdogs of +140 to +200 as long as it is not the first game of a series. This system has a record of 904-1778 SU (33.7%) for a profit of +16,437 units. We want to play ON MLB home favorites coming off a home win in which their bullpen was used and did not allow a run. This system has a record of 913-607 SU (60.1%) for a profit of +2439 units. We want to play ON MLB favorites coming off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed and their bullpen allowed fewer than three runs. This system has a record of 758-491 SU (60.7%) for a profit of +2493 units. We want to play ON MLB teams in the last game of a series as a 135-plus favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 12-plus hits. This system has a record of 521-293 SU (64%) for a profit of 2889 units. With solid support for the Tigers we will lay the chalk with them on Sunday as they take this series 3 games to 1.

The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks face off early Sunday afternoon with the Bucks looking to even the series at two games apiece before the series moves back to Boston on Tuesday. The Bucks have really picked up their defensive intensity in an effort to get back into this series after dropping both games in Boston. In Boston the Bucks allowed an average of 116.5 points per game in those first two series meetings one of which did go into overtime but the Bucks held the Celtics to just forty percent shooting and forced eighteen turnovers in their Game Three victory on Friday with a final score in that game 116 to 92. We expect the Bucks to once again step up on the defensive end of the floor in today’s game with one difference than in Game Three we expect the Celtics to do the same in Game Four. With both teams knowing that playing solid defense is something they can control unlike sinking baskets they do not always go in but defensive intensity always pays dividends especially in the playoffs. We have key people from both camps emphasizing the importance of intensity. "The activity, if you take the stat sheet out of it, the activity and the energy that we brought ... as you go through the game, that's what you need, is the energy first," interim coach Joe Prunty told reporters. "I think that we learned that the level – the intensity – that is playing in the playoffs on the road (is heightened)," Horford said. "I feel like it was just a different level of intensity and we all saw it. We felt it." Our TPR Index projects a total point average of 196.77 points. The MM projects a total point differential of -8.31 points with a total range of 203.0 to 205.5. The SIM Matrix has the Under with a 73.24 percent advantage against the total in today’s contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has the Under with an offensive-defensive differential of -8.79 against the oddsmakers total today. The Momentum Matrix has the Celtics and Bucks on the low side of the total with the Celtics average of -4.53 against their projected game points total while the Bucks are close behind with an average of 4.46 below their projected game points total. The combination of their Momentum averages has them going Under the posted total by -8.99 points. Even though this series has seen the Over as the play in Milwaukee we are going to play into those trends and play this one to come up short of the oddsmakers total today. We note the Bucks are an almost perfect 1-13 Under as a home favorite off a home game in which they shot over 50% from the field and it is after the All-Star break. With strong situational support as well as powerful fundamental splits with the defensive side carrying the majority here we will play the low side on Sunday afternoon in Milwaukee. Under