We are on the west coast for a West Coast Conference Quarterfinal matchup between the Pacific Tigers and the Santa Clara Broncos Sunday night. The Broncos are playing a hugely important game tonight because they are on the NCAA Tournament bubble. On Saturday none of the bubble teams really did anything to improve their positions, which opens the door for the Broncos to storm through and makes a case for them to be invited to the Dance. A common statement made during tournament time is “it’s hard to defeat a team three times in a season”. Based on the historical data that is not the case especially when the winning team has blown the losing team out in the previous two meetings. In this case we see the Broncos have won the previous two meetings between the clubs by at least fifteen points in each game. Santa Clara’s offense is among the best at the mid-major level with the Broncos ranked twenty-third in adjusted efficiency. The Broncos have scored eighty or more points in eight of their last ten games overall. Santa Clara is also very efficient around the basket doing a great job attacking the offensive glass ranked nineteenth in offensive rebounding rate this season. The Tigers offense is ranked 151st in adjusted efficiency this season. The Broncos cause huge problems for the Tigers on both ends of the floor and have shown the ability to run all over them. The Pacific Tigers have an 18-14 overall record and an 8-10 record in the WCC. They are coming off a 61 to 58 home win against Seattle U, and their previous three games were a 72 to 61 home loss against San Francisco, a 71 to 62 road loss against Gonzaga and an 87 to 70 road loss against Washington State. The Santa Clara Broncos have a 24-7 overall record and a 15-3 record in the WCC. They are coming off a 93 to 72 home win against Oregon State, and their previous three games were an 86 to 67 road win against Saint Mary’s, a 94 to 73 road win against San Francisco and a 94 to 86 home loss against Gonzaga. The Broncos have won each of its last eight-night games against the Tigers. Pacific has lost nine of its last eleven games at Orleans Arena. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 16.22 points. The MM projects a point differential of +5.20 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 4.94 with a transitional average of 43.2 The SIM Matrix has the Santa Clara Broncos with a 73.99 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Play ON CBB favorites of more than nine points off a double-digit victory with a MM of +5.15 or more and an OFF-DEF average differential of 4.85 or more, 87-41-5 ATS (68%) including 9-0 ATS L9 qualifying contests. PREDICTION: 8* SANTA CLARA BRONCOS 86 PACIFIC TIGERS 70

The Charlotte Hornets are on the road in the desert Sunday night where they open a four-game West Coast road swing as they take on the Phoenix Suns. The Hornets have been the best team in the league over the last seven weeks, posting a 16-4 SU record to climb to No. 10 in the Eastern Conference. Tonight, they face a Suns team that is 18-14 ATS (56.3%) this season as an underdog, improving to 64.3 percent (9-5 ATS) when playing in the desert. Phoenix also has the tenth-best defense with a 112.5 Efficiency Rating on the year. Points in the paint are particularly hard to come by, with this Suns team ranked eleventh and allowing 48.7 per game. The Hornets are averaging 116 points per game while allowing their opponents to average 112.6 points per game. The Suns are averaging 112.1 points per game and on the defensive end of the floor they are allowing their opponents to average 111.4 points per game on the year. The way the Hornets have been playing lately, it’s hard to go against them. However, considering that some of those big wins during the streak came against towel tossing teams and the fact that the Suns have the superior head-to-head record make it easy to back the home underdog in this situation. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.1 points in favor of the Suns. The MM projects a point differential of -5.39 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive defensive differential of 5.09 with a transitional average of 42.88. The SIM Matrix has the Phoenix Suns with a 73.99 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Play AGAINST NBA teams when they are facing a team coached by Jordan Ott and they are on fewer than seven days’ rest after playing a home game, 21-7 ATS (75%)(+$1,330). Play AGAINST NBA teams when their opponent had fifteen or more offensive rebounds in their last game and when the team had more than six lead changes in their last game, 524-413 ATS (56%)(+$6,970). We will take the points with the Suns on Sunday night in the desert. PREDICTION: 8* PHOENIX SUNS 116 CHARLOTTE HORNETS 115