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Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury (WNBA) - Jul 29, 2026 10:00 PM EDT
Play: Total: 156.5/-110 Over Rating: 1* Take #625 Valkyries vs Mercury Over
Take #625 Valkyries vs Mercury Over
The WNBA returns from the All-Star break with an intriguing matchup as the Golden State Valkyries visit the Phoenix Mercury. Both teams exceeded expectations in the first half, and each enters the second half with momentum.
The Valkyries (19-8) have been one of the league's biggest surprises, fueled by a dominant defense, a nine-game winning streak earlier this season, and the outstanding play of Gabby Williams. While their defense has carried them, they've also shown the ability to push the pace when opportunities arise.
Phoenix closed the first half with back-to-back victories and appears to be finding its rhythm offensively. Alyssa Thomas heads into the break fresh off a spectacular triple-double, recording 19 points, 15 assists, and 11 rebounds against the Sparks. When Thomas is controlling the tempo, the Mercury become one of the league's more efficient offensive teams.
Both teams should come out with fresh legs after the break, and we expect an uptick in pace. Phoenix has been playing with more confidence offensively, while Golden State has enough scoring options to capitalize in transition. Our model projects more possessions than the betting market is accounting for, making the total look a bit short.
With both teams capable of playing at a faster tempo and creating quality scoring opportunities, expect enough offense on both sides to push this game over the posted total.
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8 pm, I still believe this (624) Dallas Wings (18-9) is a year away from being a legit contender. On the other side, this (623) Atlanta Dream (16-10) made the big splash with Angel Reese, and their time is now, especially with all the veterans and how stacked the bench is with Brionna Jones healthy. Defense has to be the focus; take the under.
Take the Twins on the Run Line
Rotation #970
Minnesota has a real run-line edge tonight because Joe Ryan’s matchup against Kansas City is one he’s consistently dominated, going 8–2 with a 2.49 ERA in his career vs. the Royals — including multiple outings where he’s completely controlled their right-heavy lineup. Ryan comes in rested after being pushed back for arm fatigue, while Kansas City counters with Randy Dobnak, who’s making just his third start and now faces a Twins lineup that knows his arsenal inside and out from his years in Minnesota. The Royals’ bullpen has been a major liability, blowing leads even when Dobnak pitches well, and their offense has slipped during a stretch where they’ve fallen 18 games under .500. Minnesota, meanwhile, has won three straight and five of six, just walked off KC last night, and carries all the momentum into a matchup where their starter, lineup familiarity, and bullpen stability give them multiple paths to separating late — ideal conditions for a run-line cover.
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