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Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets (MLB) - Jun 22, 2026 7:10 PM EDT
Play: Total: 8.5/-120 Over Rating: 1* Cubs vs. Mets Over 8.5
Cubs vs. Mets Over 8.5 Betting Analysis
We're looking toward over 8.5 runs in tonight's matchup between Chicago and New York, as both starting pitchers bring concerning trends into this game.
For the Mets, Kodai Senga has struggled mightily, surrendering 24 earned runs in just 24 innings pitched, resulting in a bloated 9.00 ERA. He has also had issues against the Cubs throughout his career, posting a 6.91 ERA across three starts against Chicago. The Cubs have the type of lineup that can capitalize on pitchers who are struggling with command and consistency.
On the other side, Shota Imanaga hasn't exactly dominated the Mets either. In three career starts against New York, he owns a 10.34 ERA and a 1-2 record. While his overall season numbers are more respectable, the Mets have shown they can see him well and generate offense when facing the left-hander.
The recent history between these clubs also points toward runs. The Over has cashed in six of the last ten meetings, and with two starters carrying unfavorable matchup histories, both offenses should have opportunities early.
With Senga's current form, Imanaga's struggles against New York, and a total sitting at just 8.5, this number feels a bit light given the pitching concerns on both sides.
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Best Bet: Over 8.5 Runs
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Chicago Cubs at NY Mets 7:10 ET
Cubs over Mets - I’ve said it before that effective pitchers that come to MLB from Japan go to the LA Dodgers and the average ‘Tokyo Joe’s’ go to whoever thinks they are getting a deal. Chicago is starting 32-yaer old Shota Imanaga (4-6, 4.29 ERA) who is off of a pair of outstanding starts allowing just one run, seven hits and 10 K’s in 10.1 innings. For New York it will be 33 year old ‘Cunny-Thumber’ Kodal Senga (0-5, 9.00) and his numbers are horrid. Take the CHICAGO CUBS!