Utah State comes into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they are representing the Mountain West after a pretty dominating season. The Aggies are shooting 50% from the field and they have allowed 66 points or fewer in three straight. Villanova has split their last four games and they looked awful against Georgetown last time out. The Wildcats are shooting 46% from the field and they have allowed 78+ points in three of their last four. I know this is a very popular play, but I am going with Utah State to get the win.

Alabama comes into this matchup after losing two of their last three games and they are dealing with a big distraction off the court right now. The Crimson Tide are the highest scoring team in the country, but they play very little defense. Hofstra has won seven games in a row and they have allowed fewer than 70 points in five straight. The Pride are shooting 44% from the field and they play at a much slower pace than Alabama. This is an interesting game with different styles.

I’m on Miami Ohio and the points here. I was initially on Tennessee, but I think there’s something to be said for Miami Ohio and the Redhawks playing with some confidence after the win over SMU. Miami looked fantastic against the Mustangs and while Tennessee will bring physicality that Miami Ohio isn’t used to from their time in the MAC, I still think the Redhawks can keep it close. Give me Miami Ohio and the points here.

I’ll take a stab on Santa Clara here; I just wish the line were a little thicker. The Broncos had a good first half in their loss to Gonzaga but wilted from there and eventually shot just 38.2 percent from the field with 52.8 percent surrendered on defense. Santa Clara did have a 33-32 rebounding edge and just nine turnovers but also got beaten in the paint 36-24. The Broncos are still 3-1 in their last four games with 76 or more points scored in each of the three wins. They’re going to have to hit the gas on offense against Kentucky, though. Speaking of Kentucky, they held Florida to just 37.9 percent from the field and 15 percent (3-of-20) from outside in their latest loss, scoring 18 points off 16 Gators turnovers. Trouble is, the Wildcats shot just 35.6 percent from the field with a 45-29 rebounding deficit. Kentucky seems to have regained their composure a bit after skidding into the postseason, notching a combined 165 points in the conference tourney wins over LSU and Missouri. Santa Clara should be firmly within the Wildcats’ wheelhouse, but I think the Broncos can hang around well enough to cover if all goes according to plan. With the thin line however, you could easily go Kentucky’s way and feel pretty confident about it.

The Warriors have ruled out Stephen Curry, Seth Curry, Al Horford, Moses Moody and Jimmy Butler III again, while the Pistons have ruled out Isaiah Stewart and Cade Cunningham. The Warriors could really do with a win here just for their own confidence, but they’ve been hit so hard by injuries and don’t have the pieces to even keep their heads above water in the short term. In contrast, the Pistons are heating up again but they will have to start relying on other players to step up in the absence of Cunningham, who suffered a collapsed lung. This should be a close one for the most part, but in the end I have the Pistons coming away with the win and cover at home.

The Knicks have ruled out Miles McBride and Josh Hart, while the Nets have ruled out Michael Porter Jr. and Noah Clowney, with Ziaire Williams listed as questionable. These teams have already clashed three times this season, with the Knicks winning each game by double digits and the most recent meeting was a 120-66 victory back on Jan 21. The Nets will be keen to get some revenge after getting embarrassed the last time these teams met, but they just don’t have the firepower to hang in this contest, especially with Porter Jr. still sitting out injured. I don’t think we will see a 54-point victory for the Knicks again, but I am sure they will be able to get the win and cover as long as they don’t look past the Nets.

This is a lot of points, but the Celtics keep winning games and are 40-28-1 ATS on the season. Back in November the Celtics beat the Grizzlies by 36 points and they’re even better now. The Grizzlies have one of the more banged-up rosters in the league. Also, the Celtics are 9-1 ATS under the 2026 calendar as a double-digit favorite. When the Celtics are supposed to win comfortably, they do. That’s a trend I can get behind. Give me the Celtics in a road blowout.

Furman has had a great season coming into the tournament, but it will face a juggernaut on Friday night. The Uconn Huskies are going to come into this match-up with a terrible taste in their mouth following their blowout loss last time out. Look for the Huskies to dominate this game in every aspect as they roll to an easy victory Friday night. Take UConn to get an easy blowout, getting cover Friday night in Philadelphia as they roll into the second round.

In my view, St. John’s overall physicality and athleticism force Northern Iowa into a style of play that is not conducive to the Panthers ability to succeed in this contest. St. John’s ability to control game pace and quality frontcourt play should be the difference in this one. I like the Red Storm to pull away in the second half and win this game rather easily. For the reasons just noted, I am backing the St. John’s Red Storm to cover the 8.5 points in this game.

I’ll stick with Purdue. The Boilermakers finally played to their capabilities during the Big Ten Tournament, finishing things off with 52.6 percent shooting in the win over Michigan. Purdue would add just two turnovers and 72.7 percent (16-of-22) from the line, but did get outscored in the paint 46-40 and out-rebounded 31-25. The Boilermakers have won four straight (all in the conference tournament), scoring 73 or more points in each of those victories. As for Queens, they’re on a feel-good run following their OT win over Central Arkansas for the conference tournament championship. The Royals shot 46.2 percent from the field and 81.5 percent (22-of-27) from the line in that one alongside a 41-34 rebounding edge, but did have 16 turnovers for 24 Bears points. Queens is 7-1 in their last eight games and scoring well with 79 or more points in seven of those (71 in the other). Purdue will mark a significant uptick in competition during this First Round game, though.

Prairie View A&M heads into this contest with a win-loss record of 18-17 for the year. They average 78.9 points per contest (103rd in D-1) while going 44.3% from the floor. The Panthers are connecting on 33.4% on shots from beyond the arc (216 of 646) and 75.3% from the free throw line. As a team, Prairie View A&M is collecting 34.0 rebounds per game and has accounted for 418 dimes so far this season, which is 249th in college hoops in terms of passing the rock. They turn it over 11.9 times per game and as a team they are committing 19.1 fouls per contest.