Take: 631. Purdue +5.5 I look for Purdue to cover the spread against Arizona in the Elite 8 on Saturday, March 28, 2026 based on this number being high enough where the Boilermakers’ advantages in experience and offensive structure keep this one close. Current lines have Arizona favored by 5.5 points to 6.5 points with Purdue coming in at 30-8 while Arizona comes in at 35-2. Experience is the first category to like about Purdue taking this number. This is freshman-fueled Arizona team going against Purdue led by seniors and with a game this late in the NCAA Tournament that experience matters. Purdue’s starting lineup has been here before while Tommy Lloyd explicitly called out Purdue’s combination of experience and offensive structure, referencing the trio of seniors starters who helped Purdue win a title last season. In a winner-take-all game where every possession counts, having veterans helps navigate through tough stretches. Speaking of Purdue’s offense, the Boilermakers boast an attack that keeps many underdogs in games. Purdue has one of the most potent attacks in the country, averaging 82.1 points per game while shooting better than 50% from the floor, and their offensive prowess runs through Braden Smith, who recently set the NCAA career assists record. Having a veteran point guard who can run the pace and create high percentage looks makes it difficult for favorites to separate. Staying with Purdue, they are also quite tough to score against, which should come in handy against Arizona’s pressure defense. Purdue survived Texas on Trey Kaufman-Renn’s tip-in with 0.7 seconds remaining, committing only four turnovers in the process which tied an NCAA Tournament program record. Taking care of the ball like that against an Arizona team that thrives on getting extra possessions through steals and transition buckets will allow the Boilermakers to dictate the pace of play. Lastly, it’s easy enough to see a path to Purdue staying under the number if they fall behind Arizona. After all, Arizona demolished Arkansas 109-88 to improve to 12 games over .500 while Purdue survived a barnburner against Texas. Arizona should be favored, but this number could open up too high based on both of those games. Purdue has the tools to slow this game down and keep it closer than Arizona’s game against Arkansas was, making living with Arizona for multiple possessions a worthwhile endeavor if betting against the number. Betting on Purdue simply rests on them keeping pace with Arizona’s scoring. If Braden Smith dictates tempo, Kaufman-Renn can provide enough points inside to keep Arizona from going crazy on the offensive glass, and Purdue’s veterans remember how to win close games in March, the Boilermakers can cover this spread. Arizona could still win this game, but Purdue looks to have all the tools it needs to keep this within one-possession to two-possession range. Jim's Play : 631. Purdue