Cleveland has several reasons it could hit the jackpot Sunday. For starters, the Guardians will arrive as favorites having won the series lead and owning a better home record. They lead this four-game set 2-1 with Saturday’s victory, and Cleveland is at 12-10 overall and 6-3 at home against Baltimore’s 10-11 overall record and 4-5 on the road. Experience at Progressive Field matters in a getaway game when the Guardians have been far more consistent. That pitching matchup leans Cleveland’s way, too. Joey Cantillo gets the start for Cleveland against Trevor Rogers in Baltimore. Their numbers so far this season are Cantillo: 2.61 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 24 strikeouts over 20.2 innings. Rogers owns a 3.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts over 23.2 innings pitched. Yes, this is a very close matchup between two talented arms, but Cantillo has been just a touch better by run prevention and strikeout ability. Cleveland also has the edge of playing at home with him on the mound. Pitching was not even the only reason to like Cleveland yesterday. Their entire pitching staff dismantled Baltimore’s lineup on Saturday, so why couldn’t they do it again on Sunday? The Guardians allowed four hits and struck out 16 Orioles on Saturday, led by Gavin Williams punching out 11 over seven innings of work. Baltimore’s “middle of the order entered Sunday combined to go 0-for-12 with 11 strikeouts.” We’ll see if Baltimore’s bats bounce back, but Cleveland’s pitching staff was able to expose a lot of swing-and-miss from this lineup and if they can do it again, they’re in a great spot. Between having the series lead, being better at home, having a favorable enough matchup with Cantillo on the mound, and exposing Baltimore’s lineup to be extremely pitch-to-contact on Saturday, Cleveland has its formula for a win should they get another quality start from their pitching staff. Jim's Play: 916. Guardians

Detroit projects as an above-average team across the board, but you can still find value on the Pistons to cover considering how high this number has gone. Right now, Detroit is laying about 8.5 points, and games with spreads that large can get exposed if the underdog can slow things down and force a half-court game. Offense should be able to flow through Cade Cunningham. Detroit scored 117.8 points per game this season compared to Orlando’s 115.7, but the Pistons also had a clear advantage in rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Detroit having edges in so many statistical categories shows they have multiple avenues to create separation, even if their shooting isn’t falling at an ideal rate. Home court advantage is another big piece of the puzzle. Detroit went 60-22 on the year and 31-9 at home while Orlando went 19-20 on the road. Detroit even has a recent form edge. The Pistons won 12 of their last 15 games to take the East’s No. 1 seed. That shows Detroit was playing well into the regular season rather than tuning up for the playoffs. When a No. 1 seed is playing that well heading into the playoffs and has home-court advantage in Game 1, they’re easier to bet on to cover. Just keep an eye on injury reports. Detroit’s game preview currently lists Jalen Duren as day to day with a knee contusion, and his availability could become relevant on the boards and in the paint. If Cunningham is firing and Detroit gets solid defensive looks at home, there’s a clear path for the Pistons to cover Sunday against Orlando. Jim's Play: 590. Pistons