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Jimmy has been so successful because he does not rely on an out-of-the-box handicapping system. There is no magic system that wins consistently. It takes hard work reviewing each matchup from many different angles. Jimmy looks at the psychology of human nature coming into a game, as well as trends and systems that have a proven history of success. He is always on top of the matchup advantages between teams and he utilizes that knowledge to deliver consistent ATS winners over the long term. He invites you to find out for yourself. Climb on board now and start building your bankroll exclusively with Jimmy Boyd!
This former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad will ensure you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come.
Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that has actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. He invites you to find out for yourself.
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Friday, October 31, 2014
Tulsa vs. Memphis (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT
Pick: Point Spread: -24.0/-115 Memphis Pick Title: 4* Tulsa/Memphis AAC Game of the Month on Memphis -
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
After taking a closer look at this matchup, I really like Memphis in this spot. The Tigers are one of the more underrated teams in the country sitting at 4-3, as 2 of of their 3 losses came on the road against UCLA (35-42) and Ole Miss (3-24). They went into the 4th quarter at Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium trailing the Rebels by a score of just 3-7.
They did slip up on the road against Houston, losing 24-28, but outside of those three games they have more than taken care of business. Memphis demolished Austin Peay 63-0, defeated a quality Middle Tennessee team 36-17, went on the road and defeated Cincinnati 41-14 and rolled SMU 48-10. I look for the Tigers to come out extremely motivated in a rare chance for them to play in the national spotlight, as there's just two games on the schedule Friday and the contest will be aired on ESPNU.
As for Tulsa, they are playing with little to no confidence right now. The Golden Hurricane have lost 6 straight, which includes some ugly defeats to bad teams like Texas State, Temple and South Florida. In their three losses against quality opponents, they have been beat badly, losing by 45 to Oklahoma, 29 to Florida Atlantic and 25 to Colorado State.
I don't see the Tigers have any problem creating enough separation to cover this massive spread. Memphis enters with the 25th ranked defense in the country, giving up just 342.0 ypg. They are also forcing 2.4 turnovers/game. Tulsa doesn't have the talent offensively to consistently move the football and they have a tendency to give the ball away (2.0 turnovers/game).
The real key here is that Memphis should be able to score at will. Tulsa features one of the worst defenses in the country, as they come in ranked 95th against the run (207.1 ypg) and 109th against the pass (287.7 ypg). What a lot of people don't realize about the Tigers is how good they have been offensively. Memphis is 30th in the country in scoring (35.7 ppg) and 39th in total offense (451.1 ypg).
A big reason for the Tigers' offensive turnaround is the maturation of sophomore quarterback Paxton Lynch. In 12 starts as a freshman, Lynch completed just 58.2% of his attempts for 2,056 yards with 9 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. As a sophomore, he's completing 64.8% of his attempts with 10 touchdowns to 6 interceptions and already has 1,708 yards in just 7 games. If you take out his game against Ole Miss and their elite defense (13 of 31, 41.9%), Lynch is completing an impressive 68.6% of his passes. Tulsa on the season is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 60.7% of their attempts and on top of that are giving up 5.8 yards/carry.
There's also a strong system in play backing a fade of the Golden Hurricane. Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points who feature an awful pass defense that is allowing 8.5 or more yards/completion on the season after allowing 9.0+ yards/completion in their last game are a mere 13-38 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Tigers. Take Memphis!
Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-110 Sacramento Kings Pick Title: 3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Kings +
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Kings are showing great value as a home underdog against the Trail Blazers. Sacramento ended up losing 77-95 to Golden State at home in the opener, but that was a more competitive game than the final score would indicate. The Kings actually had a lead late in the 3rd quarter. They simply committed too many turnovers and couldn't buy a basket. As a team they show just 30.8% from the field. Sacramento hasn't lost back-to-back home openers since 1997.
The Trail Blazers enter off a 106-89 home win over the Thunder. It looks like they dominated on paper, but they actually trailed Oklahoma City going into the 4th quarter and the Thunder are as unhealthy as any team in the league. Portland was better on the road last year than previous seasons, but this team is not the same away from home. It's going to be hard for them to win here going away, which is why I really like the value we are getting with the Kings, who wouldn't surprise me if they won outright.
Sacramento finished last year 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit home loss. Portland on the the other hand was just 2-6 ATS off a SU win by more than 10 points.
There's also a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the Trail Blazers. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 18-49 ATS on Friday nights over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!
San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns (NBA) - 10:05 PM EDT
Pick: Point Spread: -1.5/-105 San Antonio Spurs Pick Title: Free Pick on San Antonio Spurs -
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
It's not very often you can back the Spurs as a mere 1-point favorite, even when they are on the road. Phoenix is an emerging power in the Western Conference, but I'm not quite convinced they are ready to contend with the likes of San Antonio. The Spurs got pushed to the limit in their home opener by a very good Dallas team, while Phoenix rolled over a bad Lakers squad. I think that's playing into the value here. Keep in mind that San Antonio has opened each of the last 3 seasons 2-0. They are also getting back Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard who missed the opener.
Offensively the Suns are looking to play at a rapid pace and really put pressure on the other team. I think they'll have a lot of success with it, but not against a smart defensive team like San Antonio, who has a ton of chemistry with basically everyone back from last year. The Spurs should also be able to take advantage of Phoenix defensively.
San Antonio is 29-12 ATSin their last 41 road games off a close home win by 3-points or less and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 off a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots. We also see a nice system telling us to fade the Suns, as home teams off a home win against a division rival are just 17-43 ATS on Friday nights over the last 5 seasons. That's a 72% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!
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NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers – Many forget the Super Bowl champion Packers didn’t win the NFC North division last season. They should knock that one off the list this year. Green Bay defeated the NFC North champion Chicago Bears in the NFC title game. One thing was evident in that game. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers and the Bears didn’t. That simple fact alone gives the Pack the edge in t ... read more
The Pittsburgh Steelers head to LP Field Sunday for a Week 2 showdown with the Tennessee Titans. The Steelers passed their first test without Ben Roethlisberger, earning a hard fought overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons, but NFL odds makers have them coming up short Sunday. The Titans are coming off an impressive 38-13 win over the Oakland Raiders, and they have been listed as a 5.5-point fav ... read more
Notre Dame vs. Navy (NCAAF) - Nov 1, 2014 8:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: -14.5/-110 Notre Dame Play Title: Free Pick on Notre Dame -14.5
The fact that Navy was able to play Notre Dame close last year might have some looking to take the two touchdowns and the hook, but I believe there’s a big difference between the Fighting Irish team that took the field last season and the one that has started out 2014 6-1. The biggest difference being Everett Golson. Keep in mind that in 2012, when Notre Dame went 12-0, they absolutely dominated the Midshipmen in a 50-10 win. I don’t know that it will be quite that big of a blowout this time around, but I like Notre Dame’s chances of winning here by more than two touchdowns.
Navy just hasn’t been all that impressive in my eyes. I really thought the Midshipmen had a chance at a double-digit win season with 15 starters coming back, including star quarterback Keenan Reynolds, but they haven’t been able to put it together. Back-to-back wins over the likes of VMI and San Jose State aren’t going to change my opinion on this team being able to compete with a far superior opponent. We have already seen Navy lose to the likes of Rutgers, Western Kentucky and Air Force.
Prior to their brutal 3-game stretch that had them go up against Stanford, North Carolina and Florida State, each of Notre Dame’s first 4 wins came by at least 16-points. I know they had a close call against the Tar Heels, who haven’t been all that impressive, but that was a huge trap game.
One of things that I really like about the Fighting Irish in this matchup is they come in off that heartbreaking loss to Florida State, which they feel they should have won. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated to put that loss behind them and I don’t see them overlooking Navy after last year’s close call. Another big advantage for Notre Dame is that they come in off a bye, which has allowed them two full weeks to prepare for Navy’s option based offense.
The Midshipmen’s run-oriented offense plays right into the strength of the Notre Dame defense, which enters ranked 12th in the country against the run, allowing just 102.7 ypg. If the Fighting Irish can keep Navy from having success on the ground, it’s going to make it extremely difficult for the Midshipmen to keep this close. Navy is not strong defensively and are not a team that’s capable of playing from behind. The Fighting Irish should have no problem winning here by 20+ points!
Notre Dame is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 road games against strong rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards/carry, while Navy is a mere 5-14 ATS in their last 19 versus good offensive teams that are averageing 425 or more total yards/game. Take Notre Dame!