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Jimmy has been so successful because he does not rely on an out-of-the-box handicapping system. There is no magic system that wins consistently. It takes hard work reviewing each matchup from many different angles. Jimmy looks at the psychology of human nature coming into a game, as well as trends and systems that have a proven history of success. He is always on top of the matchup advantages between teams and he utilizes that knowledge to deliver consistent ATS winners over the long term. He invites you to find out for yourself. Climb on board now and start building your bankroll exclusively with Jimmy Boyd!
This former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad will ensure you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come.
Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that has actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. He invites you to find out for yourself.
Climb on board NOW and start building your bankroll exclusively with Jimmy Boyd!
Thursday, November 27, 2014
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - 12:30 PM EST
Pick: Total: 47.0/-110 Over Pick Title: 3* Bears/Lions Thanksgiving Total Dominator on OVER
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This might seem like a high total for how well the Lions have played defensively at home, but the these two teams have a history of putting up some points when they face off in Detroit. Last year the two combined for 72 points and in 2012 they combined for 50.
The Bears have too much talent offensively to continue to underperform and I think this will be a game where they have some success. Chicago's offense is built to play inside with two explosive receivers, a talented multipurpose running back and quarterback who can sling the rock. The Bears had one of their best offensive showings of the season at Atlanta dome, scoring 27 points on 478 yards of total offense. There's no question the Lions are a better defensive team than Atlanta, but Chicago should be able to take some of what New England used to put up 34 points and 439 yards on Detroit last week.
The key here is that we don't figure to need an offensive explosion by the Bears to push this over the mark. Detroit's offense is a lot better at home than they are on the road and with Calvin Johnson back at full strength, the Lions are due for a breakout game offensively. Chicago definitely is a good matchup for them to get their offense going. The Bears gave up 51 to the Patriots and 55 to the Packers in their last two road games.
Another thing to keep consider is that with Detroit being so good at stopping the run and so bad at running it offensively, both teams figure to be passing a lot. With the talent at the skill positions, there's going to be some big plays and most importantly a lot of possessions for both sides.
OVER is 11-3 in Chicago's last 14 road games, 9-1 in their last 10 road games with a total set at 42.5 to 49 points and 6-0 in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 2 out of their last 3. OVER is 29-13 in the Lion's last 42 home games against excellent passing teams who are completing 64% or more of their pass attempts and 33-16-2 in their last 51 after scoring less than 15 points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 73% (88-33) system. Take the OVER!
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 8:30 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: -1.0/-110 San Francisco 49ers Pick Title: 4* Seahawks/49ers NFC West Game of the Month on 49ers -
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The books are undervaluing the 49ers due to their lackluster win against the Redskins, which they came no where close to covering the 9-point spread and overvaluing the Seahawks for their lopsided win and cover at home against the Cardinals. Just based on the history of this series, it’s pretty clear that San Francisco is showing some great value at basically a pick’em at home.
The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings and the Seahawks haven’t beat the 49ers on the road since 2008. It’s well known that Seattle isn't as dominant away from home. Seattle is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS on the road this season, with their two wins coming in less than impressive fashion against a couple of bad teams in Washington (27-17) and Carolina (13-9).
San Francisco’s poor showing against the Redskins last week shouldn’t come as a big surprise given that they knew they had a short amount of time to prepare for this matchup. A game they arguably have to win, as they are 1-2 in the division and don’t want to be sitting at 1-3 going into rematch at Seattle in Week 15, where they haven’t won since 2011.
The other important thing to remember is that the 49ers are the ones that have serious revenge on their minds, as it was the Seahawks who kept them out of the Super Bowl last year. Seattle clearly is going to be up for this game, but I could see them struggling to match the intensity of San Francisco. Unlike the 49ers who played a bad team last week, Seattle laid everything on the line against the Cardinals at home. It’s also a lot harder on the road team in these Thursday game with short rest.
The other big key here is that I think we are just now seeing the 49ers start to play their best football and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that San Francisco has allowed a mere 23 combined points in the two games since Aldon Smith returned to the field. Smith has 2 sacks and 6 quarterback hits in two games and having him to contain Russell Wilson is huge. Keep in mind that the 49ers held Wilson to a mere 35 rushing yards in their 3 games against the Seahawks last year.
It's also worth noting that the 49ers not covering the spread last week is a good thing, as it sets them up in a very profitable spot. San Francisco is 26-9-3 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS loss. Adding to this is that Seattle is just 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games off a win over a division rival by 10 or more points and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 6 points or less. These trends combine to form a 74% (63-22) system in favor of the 49ers. Take San Francisco!
LSU vs. Texas A&M (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: -3.0/-115 LSU Pick Title: 5* SEC Game of the Year on LSU -
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
I believe we are getting an absolute gift with this line, as the Tigers are the much better team and couldn't matchup any better with Texas A&M. The only reason the Aggies aren't a bigger underdog here is they recently had a huge upset win on the road against then No. 3 Auburn. As impressive as that was, Texas A&M returned to form with a 27-34 home loss to Missouri the following week.
Another reason we are seeing a small line here is the Tigers come in off back-to-back losses, with the most recent being an ugly 0-17 loss at Arkansas. While that win helped the Razorbacks snap a 17-game SEC losing streak, anyone who has watched Arkansas play knows that team is better than their record would indicate. The Razorbacks nearly beat Alabama at home (13-14) and Mississippi State on the road (10-17). It might not seem like LSU has a whole lot to play for, but a loss here could mean a last place finish in the SEC West and that's just not acceptable by their standards.
As for Texas A&M's win against Auburn, they got extremely lucky in that one. The Tigers had a 582 to 453 (-129) edge in total yards and 31 to 22 advantage in first downs. Adding to this is the fact that the Aggies have been outgained by at least 100 yards in each of their last 4 games, including a home game against Sun Belt's ULM.
The biggest key here is that the matchups on both sides of the ball heavily favor LSU. In order for Texas A&M's offense to have success they have to be able to throw the football. The strength of the LSU defense is their secondary, which comes in ranked 6th in the country, allowing just 164.0 ypg. On the flip side of this, the Tigers offense needs to be able to run the ball and they should have no problem doing just that against Texas A&M's poor excuse of a run defense. The Aggies are giving up 208.9 ypg and 4.9 ypc on the season.
At first look it appears that LSU can't run the ball on the road, as they are only averaging 124 ypg and 3.0 ypc away from home. However, that's extremely misleading. The Tigers 4 road games have come against 4 really good run defenses in Wisconsin, Auburn, Florida and Arkansas.
Texas A&M is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record, while LSU is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 after being outgained by 125 or more total yards and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after playing in a game where 29 or fewer total points were scored.
Adding to all of this is a huge system. Road favorites that gained 225 or less total yards in their previous game, who returned 5 or more offensive starters from the previous season are 31-4 ATS since 1992. That's a dynamite 89% system in favor of the Tigers. Take LSU!
TCU vs. Texas (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-110 Texas Pick Title: Free Pick on Texas Longhorns +
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The books are begging for money on TCU with this line and will likely get it. However, I think the value is with Texas at home.
Charlie Strong has done a tremendous job of turning this team around after their 2-4 start. Texas is clearly playing their best football of the season right now and will be laying everything on the line in their regular season and home finale. Texas will also be extremely motivated to spoil in-state rival TCU’s hopes of getting into the 4-team playoff and I believe they have a great shot at winning this game outright.
While the Longhorns only win against a ranked opponent is that recent 33-16 victory over West Virginia, they have played several of their top opponents tough. They lost by just 3-points to UCLA (17-20), outplayed Oklahoma in a heartbreaking 26-31 defeat and kept it respectable against Baylor in a 7-28 loss.
Texas has played well defensively all season and come into this game ranked 27th in the country in total defense (346.5 ypg). They have been at their best against the pass, where they rank 13th (182.0 ypg). While TCU is 29th in rushing at 218.0 ypg, their strength is their passing attack, which ranks 8th at 323.6 ypg.
It's not like Texas can't stop the run. The Longhorns are allowing just 3.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.3 and just 5.5 yards per pass attempt versus teams averaging 7.5. Add in the home fans and the magnitude of this game and I think Texas is going to do a nice job of slowing down the Horned Frogs.
Another big key here is that Texas has grown big time on the offensive side of the ball. Over their last 3 games the Longhorns are averaging 31.7 points, which is 8 more than their season average of 23.7. They are also averaging 416.7 ypg, which is a big improvement over their season average of 366.9. TCU’s defense is giving up 30.2 ppg and 450.5 ypg on the road, where they have been far from impressive.
The Horned Frogs were fortunate to escape each of their last two road games with wins, narrowly beating both West Virginia (31-30) and Kansas (34-30). That poor showing against the Jayhawks really has me concerned about TCU’s ability to handle the pressure of what’s at stake.
There’s also strong system in play favoring a fade of the Horned Frogs after that near upset loss to Kansas. Road favorites who are an excellent offensive team (34+ ppg) against an average defensive team (21-28 ppg) after a win by 6-points or less are just 9-31 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Longhorns. Take Texas!
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NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers – Many forget the Super Bowl champion Packers didn’t win the NFC North division last season. They should knock that one off the list this year. Green Bay defeated the NFC North champion Chicago Bears in the NFC title game. One thing was evident in that game. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers and the Bears didn’t. That simple fact alone gives the Pack the edge in t ... read more
The Pittsburgh Steelers head to LP Field Sunday for a Week 2 showdown with the Tennessee Titans. The Steelers passed their first test without Ben Roethlisberger, earning a hard fought overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons, but NFL odds makers have them coming up short Sunday. The Titans are coming off an impressive 38-13 win over the Oakland Raiders, and they have been listed as a 5.5-point fav ... read more
Mississippi St vs. Mississippi (NCAAF) - Nov 29, 2014 3:30 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: 3.0/-105 Mississippi Play Title: Free Pick on Ole Miss +
Free Pick on Ole Miss +
The Rebels may appear to be down for the count after last week’s ugly loss to Arkansas, but I fully expect this team to bounce back with an inspired effort at home against the Bulldogs. It’s certainly going to make it easier to get motivated against a big in-state rival, especially with what’s at stake for Mississippi State. The Rebels would love nothing more than to spoil the Bulldogs hopes of getting into the playoff and potentially winning a national championship.
One thing I like about Ole Miss is they have nothing to lose in this one and that makes them a dangerous team. Mississippi State on the other hand has a tremendous amount of pressure on them and a lot of teams really struggle in this spot. Almost every season a team with everything on the line fails to play up to their potential in this exact scenario.
It certainly doesn’t look good for the Ole Miss offense after getting shutout by Arkansas, but the Razorbacks are a dangerous team. Keep in mind they nearly went on the road and upset Mississippi State a few weeks back. It’s also worth nothing that the Rebels were done in by 6 turnovers, as they actually outgained the Razorbacks on the game 316 to 311.
The Ole Miss offense should have a much easier time moving the ball in the comforts of their home stadium in what's a good matchup for them. The Rebels are built around senior quarterback Bo Wallace and the passing attack and they will be facing a Mississippi State defense that ranks 116th in the country against the pass (281.4 ypg).
The Rebels also have the talent defensively to slow down Dak Prescott and the Bulldogs high-powered offensive attack. Ole Miss comes in ranked 1st in the country in scoring defense (13.5 ppg) and 10th in total defense (309.9 ypg). They are also 12th in the country against the pass (179.0 ypg).
The Rebels are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games against teams who average 250 or more passing yards/game and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 20 points. These two trends combine to form a 70% (39-17) system in favor of the Rebels. Take Ole Miss!