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Saturday, November 28, 2015
Notre Dame vs. Stanford (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: -3.0/-110 Stanford Pick Title: Free Pick on Stanford -
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Free Pick on Stanford -
The Irish come into this game 10-1 with their only loss of the season being a 22-24 defeat at Clemson, where they had a 432 to 296 edge in total yards, but were doomed by 4 turnovers. Stanford won and covered last week against Cal, but there loss two weeks ago at home to Oregon as a 10-point favorite has taken away a lot of the hype surrounding this Cardinal squad.
I know Clemson has been ranked No. 1 in the playoff standings since they first came out, but I’m not as convinced as the committee that the Tigers are the best team in the country. The ACC consists of a lot mediocre teams and I wouldn’t be surprised if Clemson got exposed in the playoffs, assuming they beat North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game. Notre Dame is considered an independent, but a big chunk of their schedule consists of ACC teams (6 of their 12 games). I know the Irish beat USC at home 41-31, but the Trojans had a 31-24 lead going into the 4th quarter and outgained Notre Dame by 114 yards.
The Cardinal are averaging 5.2 yards/carry and have one of the best backs in the country in Christian McCaffrey. For as good as Notre Dame’s defense is made out to be, the Irish are giving up 4.6 yards/carry. Even more concerning is that Notre Dame hasn’t really faced any great running backs.
As for Stanford and their loss to Oregon, I don’t think that loss is as bad as people think. The Cardinal committed 3 turnovers and outgained the Ducks by 70 yards. The thing to keep in mind with Oregon, is had it not been for an injury to Vernon Adams that either hampered him or kept him out of all 3 of the Ducks’ losses, Oregon could very well be undefeated. Last week the Ducks dominated USC 48-28 with a 154 yard edge. I think Stanford is right there with Oregon in terms of talent and are going to expose Notre Dame in this contest.
One area of the game where I think Stanford has a big edge is their running game on offense. The Cardinal are averaging 5.2 yards/carry and have one of the best backs in the country in Christian McCaffrey. For as good as Notre Dame’s defense is made out to be, the Irish are giving up 4.6 yards/carry. Even more concerning is that Notre Dame hasn’t really faced any great running backs. You could argue the best they faced was Clemson’s Wayne Gallman and he had 111 yards on 23 carries. I just see Stanford having the much easier time moving the football.
Notre Dame is just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games after winning 8 or more of their last 10 games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of November. Stanford is 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games, 15-7 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 in the month of November. You also have to factor in the home team in this series has won 4 straight and 6 of the last 7 overall. Take Stanford!
Northwestern vs. Illinois (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-101 Northwestern Pick Title: 5* NCAAF Game of the Month on Northwestern -
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5* NCAAF Game of the Month on Northwestern -
I think we are seeing some great value here on Northwestern, due to the fact that the perception will be that Illinois will be the more motivated team given they need to win this game to become bowl eligible. I don't think that will be the case at all.
Northwestern has had this game circled on the calendar since the schedule was released, as they lost 33-47 to Illinois last year in a game where they needed to win to become bowl eligible. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald took that loss to heart and has vowed to have his team better prepared for their showdown with the Illini this time around. Wildcats also have some motivation here to reach the 10-win plateau, which doesn't come around often for this program.
Ever since getting embarrassed in back-to-back games against Michigan and Iowa, Northwestern has been on an absolute tear, winning 4 straight games, including impressive road wins over both Nebraska and Wisconsin. Illinois' only win in their last 5 games is against Purdue at home, who they caught in a perfect spot off their upset over Nebraska.
Northwestern is simply the more talented team in this one and this is a great matchup for the Wildcats offense. Illinois is giving up 5.4 yards/carry against the run away from home and running the football is the one thing Northwestern does well. The Wildcats come in averaging 192.0 ypg and 4.2 yards/carry behind sophomore running back Justin Jackson (1,172 yards).
On the flip side of the ball, it's no secret Northwestern has a great defense and they are facing an Illinois offense that has struggled to score on just about every Big Ten defense they have faced. The Illini managed just 3 points against Ohio State, were shutout by Penn State, only scored 13 against Wisconsin, 20 against Iowa and 14 against Nebraska.
The Wildcats are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 road games after playing their previous game on the road and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams who struggle to throw the ball, averaging 5.75 or less yards per pass attempt. Take Northwestern!
Texas A&M vs. LSU (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: -5.5/-104 LSU Pick Title: 4* Texas A&M/LSU SEC Game of the Week on LSU -
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4* Texas A&M/LSU SEC Game of the Week on LSU -
The Tigers have went from playoff contender to a team that no one is talking about, outside of the potential firing of head coach Les Miles. As disappointing a finish as it's been for LSU, I think we are going to see an inspired effort in their home finale, especially given that this could be the last home game under Miles. The good thing is we are seeing the Tigers way undervalued here due to their poor performances in their last 3 games.
The key thing to keep in mind here, is Texas A&M hasn't exactly been playing great football of late either. While the Aggies defeated Vanderbilt 25-0 last week, they are just 3-3 in their last 6 games and the other two wins were against South Carolina and Western Carolina, where they didn't come close to covering the spread.
A huge factor to why I like LSU, is the matchup for the Tigers offense. As we have found out the last 3 games, LSU needs to be able to run the football to have success. Their last 3 games have been against arguably the 3 best run defenses in the SEC in Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss. Now the Tigers face a Texas A&M defense that ranks 102nd in the country against the run, giving up 202.5 ypg and 4.8 ypg. Look for the LSU offense to get back on track and the defense to play inspired in the home finale.
Texas A&M is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games as an underdog of 7 or less and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after playing their previous game on the road. Aggies are also just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 against a team with a winning record and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 against strong running teams that average 5.25 or more yards/carry. Take LSU!
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: -2.5/-106 Wisconsin Pick Title: 3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Rout on Wisconsin -
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3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Rout on Wisconsin -
This is a great spot to jump on Wisconsin, who I look to be extremely motivated coming off that heartbreaking 7-13 loss at home to Northwestern. The key here is we are getting great value on the Badgers, due to the fact that Minnesota needs to win this game to become bowl eligible. The fact of the matter is, the Golden Gophers aren't a good football team and this is not a good matchup for them.
Minnesota's offense is average at best and will have a very difficult time moving the ball against a stingy Wisconsin defense. The Badgers are 4th in the country in total defense, ranking 6th against the run (102.0 ypg) and 5th against the pass (164.3 ypg). Wisconsin also seems to have the Gophers offense figured out. In the last 4 meetings they are holding Minnesota to just 14.25 ppg. Not to mention the Badgers have won 11 straight in the series and hold an 18-2 advantage overall.
There's no question this is not your typical high-powered Wisconsin rushing attack from previous years, but they should be able to get the ground game going against the Gophers. Minnesota has allowed 150+ rushing yards in each of their last 3 and last year yielded 233 yards on 46 attempts.
The Badgers are 28-10 ATS in their last 38 after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, winning in this spot by an averaging of 13.1 ppg. They are also 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game, while Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win.
Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to 1, who have lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 against an opponent that has won 4 or 5 of their last 6 are just 14-41 ATS since 1992. That's a 75% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!
Atlanta Hawks vs. San Antonio Spurs (NBA) - 8:30 PM EST
Pick: Total: 192.5/-110 Under Pick Title: 4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER
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4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Hawks/Spurs UNDER
I'm expecting a low-scoring defensive battle on Saturday between the Hawks and Spurs. Given the scheduling scenario we have here, neither of these teams are going to be looking to push the pace offensively.
Atlanta is an absolutely brutal spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. They also come in off a high-scoring game last night at Memphis in a 116-101 win. The Spurs are also playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. San Antonio has been really playing well defensively. They have held 4 straight opponents to 84 or less points are allowing just 84.9 ppg at home on the season.
UNDER is 30-18 in the Spurs last 48 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 11-4 in their last 15 when playing on no rest. UNDER is 9-4 in the Hawks last 13 off a win and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on no rest. Take the UNDER!
Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards (NBA) - 7:00 PM EST
Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-110 Washington Wizards Pick Title: 3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Wizards +
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3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Wizards +
After back-to-back ugly losses on the road against the Hornets and Celtics, I look for the Wizards to bounce back with one of their best efforts of the early season at home against the Raptors on Saturday. Washington is being way undervalued due to losing their last 2 in blowout fashion, while Toronto is getting a little too much respect following a huge 103-99 win at home against the Cavaliers.
The Wizards swept the Raptors at home in the playoffs last year and won both games at home convincingly. They were also at least a 4.5-point favorite in both of those meetings, so you can see the value here with them as a home dog. The Underdog has had the advantage in this series, covering 7 of the last 10.
We also see the Raptors are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 2 days of rest, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on Saturday and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 against the Southeast division. Take Washington!
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NFC North Champion: Green Bay Packers – Many forget the Super Bowl champion Packers didn’t win the NFC North division last season. They should knock that one off the list this year. Green Bay defeated the NFC North champion Chicago Bears in the NFC title game. One thing was evident in that game. The Packers had Aaron Rodgers and the Bears didn’t. That simple fact alone gives the Pack the edge in t ... read more
The Pittsburgh Steelers head to LP Field Sunday for a Week 2 showdown with the Tennessee Titans. The Steelers passed their first test without Ben Roethlisberger, earning a hard fought overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons, but NFL odds makers have them coming up short Sunday. The Titans are coming off an impressive 38-13 win over the Oakland Raiders, and they have been listed as a 5.5-point fav ... read more
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - Nov 29, 2015 4:25 PM EST
Play: Point Spread: 3.5/-104 Pittsburgh Steelers Play Title: Free Pick on Steelers +
Free Pick on Steelers +
In previous seasons this would be an obvious spot to back the Seahawks laying less than a touchdown at home, but I would have to lean towards Pittsburgh in this one. The Steelers have a huge advantage here coming off their bye this late in the season and look to be as healthy as they have all year.
Coming into this season there was concern with whether Seattle would be able to stick together an remain focused after all the big contracts were handed out and so far it doesn’t look promising for the Seahawks. Seattle is still in it at 5-5, but they don’t have a signature win in 2015.
Their 5 wins have come against the Bears (w/o Cutler), Lions, 49ers (twice) and Cowboys (w/o Romo). Interestingly all 5 of those came against teams who are either struggling offensively or were missing their starting quarterback.
With Roethlisberger healthy, Pittsburgh has one of the most explosive offenses in the game and we saw what a strong offense can do to this Seattle defense a couple weeks ago with Arizona putting up 39 points on 451 yards of total offense.
Not only do I think the Steelers will be able to move the ball and put points on the scoreboard against the Seahawks, but I think they matchup well defensively. Seattle’s offense is predicated around their ability to run the ball. They lead the league with 148.6 ypg on the ground and are 27th in passing at 219.0 ypg. That plays right into the strength of the Pittsburgh defense, which is 5th against the run (93.0 ypg). You also have to factor in that the Steelers have had 2 full weeks to prepare for Seattle’s one dimensional offense.
The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 when coming off a win. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at home, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh!