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Wisconsin vs. Michigan (NCAAF) - Oct 1, 2016 3:30 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 10.5/-110 Wisconsin Play Title:
Wisconsin +10.5 1.1% Free Play
I like this play with the Badgers as they got a relaxing win over Michigan State last week that nobody is taking seriously considering the way Notre Dame looked. Wisconsin is a solid team all around and this game is going to come down to whether or not Michigan can score through the air. Wisconsin is super solid defending the run having only allowed 1 rushing TD and they have kept all 4 opponents under their season average for rushing yards per carry. Meanwhile Michigan has been pretty inconsistent running the ball which raises some red flags for me. Michigan vs. Colorado rushed for just 4.10 ypc while Colorado has allowed 4.28 on the season. Michigan vs. UCF, Wolverines averaged just 2.90 ypc and UCF is allowing 3.88 on the season. Hawaii game was a little different as they rushed for 7.85 and Hawaii is allowing 6.36 so they are pretty bad. Hawaii had a dreadful travel spot playing in Sydney, Australia, back to Hawaii (30 hours of travel time), and then another 30 hours of travel time to Michigan all in an 8 day span. Penn State is awful this year and we saw it against Pitt when the Panthers ran all over Michigan. My point is I don’t think Michigan’s rushing offense is top 25 and you can bet Wisconsin’s run defense is in the top 25 having proven themselves vs. LSU and Michigan State.
When Michigan can’t run the ball they struggle. There were 3 games when they did not have a rushing TD a year ago and they went 1-2. Their lone win against Indiana they did not cover the spread, and when you look at their game against Michigan State they averaged 1.88 ypc and lost as well. Wisconsin does not give up the big play, and I can’t rely on Wilton Speight to score TD’s in the red zone which is what will have to happen in this one for them to cover 10.5 points. Wisconsin has only allowed 2 passing TD’s and they have 6 interceptions.
This is going to be a very good game with two of the top 30 teams in yards per play allowed and plays per game allowed. This game should be shortened quite a bit and I’m getting 10.5 points with a very low total of 44.5 which is intriguing. If Wisconsin was not in a bad spot following Michigan State and with Ohio State on deck I would absolutely make this a more confident play, but at the end of the day I am still very confident. I really liked what I saw from QB Alex Hornibrook on the road last week against the Spartans. This kid is very calm cool and collected. He throws an accurate ball and has poise. I just do not really see a lot that separates these two teams at this point and Michigan typically carries an inflated number because of their brand.
Michigan State vs. Indiana (NCAAF) - Oct 1, 2016 8:00 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 7.5/-120 Indiana Play Title:
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #200 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday 8 pm BTN) Most experts believed that this would be a rebuilding year for Michigan State and in two months that will be evident to all. They had fool’s gold beating Notre Dame two weeks ago but came crashing down in a big way last Saturday at home against Wisconsin. As we also observed that win over Notre Dame is not that impressive since the Irish have already lost three times this season. Indiana is coming off a disappointing loss to Wake Forest last week but expect them to bounce back in a big way this Saturday since this is the opening of Big 10 Conference play. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card highlighted by our Mountain West Game of the Year. Doc’s Sports is a perfect 4-0 on Top Plays this season in College Football. Sign-up now and let 45 years of handicapping experience work for you.
Minnesota vs. Penn State (NCAAF) - Oct 1, 2016 3:30 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 3.0/-115 Minnesota Play Title: Tony George - free Big 10 Winner
Big 10 Underdog Pointspread Winner Saturday
Courtesy of Tony George
Minnesota @ Penn State (-3)
Penn State is still licking their wounds after an absolute throttling at Michigan last week where Jim Harbaugh never called off the dogs against an injury riddled Lions defense. I exposed this mis-match with a premium play laying 18.5 points and Michigan which was a no sweat winner for anyone who was willing to lay the points and realize Penn State is not at 100% on the defensive side of the ball.
On the other side of the ball for Penn State is an offensive line that is not in sync, and they yielded 6 sacks last week and the offense was woeful to say the least. This is not good news as a veteran and well coached Golden Gopher teams heads to Happy valley this week with a very formidable run game where they are out rushing opponents by 109 years per game, and a capable QB in Leidner who is a dual threat through the air on the ground. It is troubling that Penn State is without all 3 starting LB's and allowed 365 yards rushing last week that plays right into Minnesota's strength.
Minnesota is undefeated to date and head into this game as statement game for them with a signature win on the road against a conference opponent, and Penn State is 0-6 against the Las Vegas Line their last 6 conference games. I cannot count on Penn State to rally here with a depleted defense in search of some bodies to stop a solid run unit and a Gopher team who also has a capable QB who can utilize play action passing with success as Penn State loads up to stop the run.
I have no issues with taking points on the road with Minnesota here who should clearly take advantage of Penn States issues on defense and the fact they are a cover machine on the road at 9-3 against the line their last 12 road games.
Minnesota 24 Penn State 20 - Take Minnesota +3
Tony George and his wares this weekend - A 4-Pack of Winners plus my weekly Hidden gem. CFB at 66% YTD! Also tune in the Tony George Show on SB Nation Radio and Sirius 93 on Sunday mornings 9-11 AM EST for the breakdown and Las Vegas Twist on this Sunday's NFL Games.
Kansas State vs. West Virginia (NCAAF) - Oct 1, 2016 3:30 PM EDT
Play: Point Spread: 3.5/-110 Kansas State Play Title: Stephen Nover Free Saturday CFB Play
I like what I'm getting with the 'dog in this matchup: A Wildcats defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards per game in the nation and an offense that is No. 1 in red zone percentage going 16-for-16 in scoring from inside the 20-yard line. That 100 percent red zone scoring extends to the final seven games of last season, too.
The Wildcats had a lot of youth last season. That youth is maturing this year. This is the game that shows Kansas State is a real Big 12 contender.
Bill Snyder and his Wildcats have the right ingredients to score an upset here - good coaching, the ability to keep the ball away from West Virginia quarterback Skyler Howard, not make mistakes and take full advantage of red zone opportunities to go with a strong defense that is particularly talented at linebacker.
Kansas State suffered a 26-13 opening-week road loss to seventh-ranked Stanford. There's no shame in that, but for some it warped the perception of Kansas State. The Wildcats give up 179 yards per game, best in the country, while surrendering just 33 points in three games. They pounded Florida Atlantic and Missouri State following the loss to Stanford.
West Virginia had issues with its special teams last week. The Mountaineers were life-and-death with BYU before winning, 35-32, last week nearly blowing a 35-19 lead. That game was played in Landover, Md. Kansas State had a much easier time rolling past Missouri State, 35-0, in a game that was called at halftime because of lightning.
So not only are the Wildcats the fresher team, but they have a proven track record under Snyder of being great in these types of games going 20-8-1 (71 percent) ATS versus above .500 opponents. By contrast, the Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS the past six times they've faced a foe with a winning record.
(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has his MAC Total of the Year heading up his Saturday college football ticket.)
Arizona State vs. USC (NCAAF) - Oct 1, 2016 8:30 PM EDT
Play: Total: 64.0/-107 Over Play Title: The Iceman's Free Pick
This is a Free 2-Team (7.5-point) Teaser W/USC+OVER.
The Trojans are 1-3, hosting the undefeated Arizona State Sun Devils, and to the untrained eye it might seem odd that USC is a double-digit favorite here. This game actually reminds me of last season, when a 3-3 USC squad was a home favorite to the then #3 ranked Utah Utes who were 6-0 at the time.
The Trojans went on to win that game by a score of 42-24, and went on to win four of their next five games, punching a ticket to the PAC12 Championship game versus Stanford. You can bet that Trojans coach Clay Helton will remind his team of that heading into this weekend's game.
Arizona State has looked terrible on defense, especially last week allowing Cal to gain a total of 637 yards. They managed to come back from a double-digit deficit by scoring 31 points in the fourth quarter to remain undefeated.
The Trojans can take a lot of positives from last Friday's loss at Utah. Freshman quarterback Sam Darnold threw for 253 yards on 18-of-26 passing, and ran for 41 yards and a TD. He looked pretty solid in his first start on the road against one of the top defenses in the conference.
Arizona State has failed to cover in seven of it's last nine road games, and the over is 6-1 in it's last seven overall.