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Home / Articles / Using Advanced Stats to Win More NFL Bets

Using Advanced Stats to Win More NFL Bets

America's Bookie

AmericasBookie Sportsbook/Casino and Horses.
By: America's Bookie     Date: Sep 8, 2022
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Use advanced stats to win more NFL bets.

Key Points

– A few key statistics contribute to more wins in NFL games.

– Knowing what to look for in terms of these advanced stats can help bettors win more NFL bets.

Win More NFL Bets with Advanced Stats

Sports handicappers are constantly seeking advantages. If they can get an edge somewhere, they will take it in an effort to increase their winning percentage and win more money. 

In betting on the NFL, many bettors track statistics. Stats like passing, running, and receiving yards are easy to keep track of for both individual players and whole teams.

But, those stats only give bettors part of the story. The betting mistakes you avoid can be as important as your accurate thoughts.

There are five factors that greatly influence the outcome of an NFL game. Winning in any one of these five categories boosts a team’s chances of winning substantially.

  • Explosive plays

  • Crucial down success rate

  • Success rate in the red zone

  • Field position battle

  • Turnover margin

Take the turnover battle as an example. NFL teams win 73 percent of the time when they win the turnover battle. Simply committing fewer turnovers than the opponent increases a team’s chances of winning.

Bettors can track more sophisticated NFL statistics to help them prepare to make betting decisions. An understanding of these stats is helpful for the typical NFL bettor in the quest to win more NFL bets.

Field Position 

Average starting field position plays a huge role in an NFL team’s success in a given game. Teams that are forced to travel 80 yards for a touchdown score a lot less often than teams that only have to go 50 yards or less.

 

NFL teams that start with better field position than their opponents throughout the course of a game score more touchdowns. Those teams have a higher likelihood of winning. That is why NFL bettors should track teams’ average starting field position.

Check out our 2022 NFL betting preview.

Win More NFL Bets - Turnovers

Bad things happen when NFL teams turn the ball over. When quarterbacks throw interceptions for example, it stops a drive and gives an opponent a possession that the team would not have otherwise had. 

Turnovers are equally good for defenses. Teams with elite defenses in the NFL are known for their abilities to rush the passer and stop the run. These defenses also create interceptions and fumbles. That gives a team extra possessions and more chances to win.

In any given week of the NFL season, teams that commit more turnovers than their opponent are more likely to lose. For example, Tampa Bay has won a lot of games in recent years. In games where they have committed four or more turnovers, they have lost a lot more than they have won.

When teams win the turnover battle, they stand a better chance of winning.

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Rushing Yards Per Carry

The best teams in the NFL year after year are usually able to run the football with success. Teams that finish in the top-5 or even top-10 in rushing typically make the playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens recently went 14-2 in a season. They led the NFL averaging over 200 yards rushing per game.

Having success running the football does a couple of things. It shortens games as the clock keeps moving. There are fewer incomplete passes, which stop the clock during a game. Running the ball also keeps the ball away from the opposing offense.

Now, what bettors really need to look for is explosive runs. The NFL average per carry is usually between 3.0 and 4.0 yards per carry. Take a team that is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. It’s a good bet they have some explosive runs.

Explosive runs are those of 20 yards or more. These are big plays that help to extend drives and produce more points. They can also help change the momentum of a game. Long runs are so helpful in turning the tide of a game that teams that have more of them tend to win games over 80 percent of the time.

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Win More NFL Bets - Yards Per Pass Attempt

 

Similar to explosive runs, explosive pass plays can also provide some insight into how well an offense is performing. Explosive pass plays are generally thought of as completions of 25 yards or more.

The NFL average for yards per pass attempt is 7.0 yards. When this statistic is calculated, it takes sack yardage into account. Therefore, teams that protect their quarterback better have higher yards per attempt averages.

In a given week, say a quarterback completes 24-of-35 passes for 417 yards. He only gets sacked once, losing four yards. His yards per attempt comes out to 11.9. That is well beyond the league average and suggests that his team probably did pretty well. 

Upon further examination, we find that the quarterback also had a 25-yard touchdown pass and a 46-yard touchdown pass. These statistics came from Buffalo’s Josh Allen in 2020. It was no surprise that Buffalo defeated Miami that week.

Third Down Conversions

If they could, NFL coaches would do everything possible to avoid third down. Unfortunately, offenses (and defenses) will be faced with roughly 10 third down situations per game. Getting a first down on offense means your team keeps possession of the football. Fail and usually your team will punt the ball away to the opponent.

Teams that convert 50 percent or more of their third down conversions usually have great success. In a given season, the top ten teams in third down conversion percentage usually make the playoffs. 

It’s the same for defenses. The ability to stop teams on third down greatly contributes to a team’s overall success. The Buffalo Bills had the NFL’s best defense in 2021. One of the reasons was its 33.6 percent conversion percentage on third down. The Bills were able to force teams to turn the ball back over to the offense.

An understanding of how these statistics work and how they relate to success for an NFL team can really help bettors win more NFL bets.


 

 
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