Tampa Bay and New Orleans will meet for the third time this season in the NFC Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. The Saints swept the season series against the Bucs and did so in convincing fashion winning both games by an average score of 36-13.

In the second meeting of the season, the New Orleans defense held Tom Brady and the Bucs offense to just three points in a 38-3 dominating victory. Can the Saints pull the trifecta and beat Tampa Bay a third time?

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Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5, 9-8 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (13-4, 10-6-1 ATS)

When: 6:40 PM ET, Sunday, January 17, 2021

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Current Line: NO -3 Total: 52

TV Coverage: FOX

It seems like it would be hard to beat a team three times in one season. It is. It’s hard to beat a team twice, but the numbers actually support the Saints winning for a third time this season. Since 1970, there have been 21 times that divisional opponents played a third time in the postseason after one of the teams won both regular season games.

In those 21 games, the team that swept the season series has a 14-7 record in the third game. The home team is 12-5 straight up in that third game. In those 17 games though, the home team is only 9-8 ATS.

Now, the Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last ten games. The defense has been outstanding. New Orleans finished fourth in total defense (310.9 ypg) and fifth in scoring defense (21.1 ppg) during the regular season. In last week’s wild card win over Chicago, the Saints held the Bears to just 239 total yards and nine points. Chicago gained 99 of those yards and six points in a meaningless, game-ending drive.

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The New Orleans offense has also been very capable averaging 30 points per game. WR Michael Thomas is back in the lineup and had five catches for 73 yards and a touchdown last week. In the final two regular season games, the Saints put up 52 and 33 points.

The Bucs are just as good offensively even though they managed just three points the last time they played the Saints. In their last four games, Tampa Bay has scored 31, 44, 47, and 31 points. 

With two offenses that can score, the key for bettors in this one is actually the game’s venue. Sunday’s game is indoors at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Indoor playoff games lean heavy toward the Over. In 42 such games, the Over is 29-13.

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Indoor games mean offenses don’t have to worry about weather concerns like rain, snow, or wind. The Bucs have actually done very well in indoor games this season. In three such games - the first of which was a loss to the Saints - Tampa Bay scored 99 points for an average of 33 a game. The Saints were right on their season average of 30 points in their eight home games.

It’s also worth noting that in games Drew Brees has started for the Saints in the Superdome, the Over is a very healthy 71-51-2. Remember, Brees began playing in New Orleans in 2006.

The last seven times these two teams have played the Over is 5-2. That is exactly where Sunday’s game is headed.

NFL Free Pick: OVER 52

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