The big news out of New Orleans this week, of course, is the status of Saints QB Drew Brees. With a couple of broken ribs and a punctured lung, Brees will not be available for Sunday’s game with NFC South rival Atlanta.

That means we should see former Tampa Bay QB Jameis Winston and possibly the versatile Taysom Hill under center for New Orleans. It won’t be the same without Brees.

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Game: Atlanta Falcons (3-6, 4-5 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (7-2, 4-5 ATS)

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 22, 2020

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

Current Line: NO -4.5 Total: 50.5

TV Coverage: FOX

Will the Injuries Be Too Much?

Last year, New Orleans went 5-0 when Brees had to sit out with a thumb injury. The reason the Saints had so much success was because the backup was Teddy Bridgewater. Winston is no Bridgewater. 

Last year, Winston led the NFL in passing with 5,109 yards. He threw 33 touchdowns and also led the NFL in another category - interceptions with 30. 

Now, Saints head coach Sean Payton is likely to limit the damage that Winston can do with a cast of skill players that includes the versatile Alvin Kamara. The problem is that Kamara hasn’t really played all that well against Atlanta in his career. 

In his last six games against the Falcons, Kamara has not registered a touchdown. He also averages roughly 15 fewer total yards per game against Atlanta compared to other opponents. That’s not good especially when you don’t have Brees to fall back on.

Did you miss any action last week? If you did, you have to go check out NFL Week 10 by the numbers.

New & Improved Falcons

On the other end, the Falcons are just 3-6 but look at how they have performed since firing Dan Quinn as the team’s head coach. Atlanta is 3-1 since the firing and has won its last two games in a row. 

The defense is improved after giving up 30 or more points in each of the Falcons first four games. QB Matt Ryan has upped his game against New Orleans averaging 311 yards passing nearly three touchdowns per game over the last four Falcons-Saints matchups.

Another plus for the Falcons is WR Calvin Ridley. The former Alabama star was injured in Atlanta’s last game, a 25-17 win over Carolina. That game was played nearly two weeks ago on a Thursday night which gives Ridley plenty of time to heal. It is expected Ridley will play, which opens up the Falcons offense with WR Julio Jones playing opposite Ridley.

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New Orleans is 6-0 straight up in its last six games. They have also beaten the Falcons in four of the last five meetings between the two teams. 

Even so, Atlanta has been improving steadily since Raheem Morris took over as the team’s interim head coach. Plus, Atlanta has performed better on the road than it has at home this season.

The Falcons are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road. With New Orleans giving 4.5 points and starting someone other than Drew Brees at quarterback, lean on Atlanta to cover.

NFL Free Pick:  FALCONS +4.5

Check out our last pick here, it was a Bears Titans free pick.

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