Free Play

The Tigers come to Cleveland having lost a series in Arlington against the Rangers. It's a rematch of a game from May 10th when Detroit won 10-4. Corey Kluber is 2-2 with a 6.17 ERA in four starts for Cleveland. He allowed 8 runs and 11 hits in that game in just over four innings of work. Kluber has allowed 14 runs and 25 hits in three starts over two seasons against the Tigers. Detroit is hitting .282 at night and scoring over 5 runs per game this season. They have gone Over the total in 7 of their last 11 games overall. Max Scherzer took the win back on May 10th despite giving up 4 runs and five hits over eight innings pitched to the Indians. Scherzer has a 3.98 ERA in eight starts with five of those games going Over the total. The Tigers’ starter is 6-4 with a 5.17 ERA in 12 career starts against Cleveland. The Indians walked off with a win on Monday afternoon and they are scoring over 5 runs per game this season. Cleveland has gone Over in three of their last five games. Detroit's bullpen is 3-8 with six blown saves on the season. These two teams played two Overs in three meetings earlier this month, and tonight’s game will be another slugfest.

Matt Garza makes his season debut for the Cubs on Tuesday night as he works his way back from injury. Garza's first start takes place in Pittsburgh against the suddenly hot Pirates. Garza is 1-1 with a 3.79 ERA in three career starts against the Pirates. Last year he took the loss in a 10-4 game after he allowed 6 runs and seven hits in five innings. Pedro Alvarez (5-10), Brandon Inge (5-12), Garrett Jones (4-10), Gaby Sanchez (4-10) and Jose Tabata (5-7) all hit the righty hard. Garza is expected to throw only 85 to 90 pitches putting the awful Cubs’ bullpen into play; the unit has six losses and eight blown saves. Pittsburgh is 15-9 at home and they’ve won 8 of their last 10 games overall. Wandy Rodriguez has been great at home for the Pirates. The lefty is 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA giving up just 4 runs and 15 hits in four starts there. Rodriguez beat the Cubs earlier this year after allowing just two hits and one walk in just over six innings. Starlin Castro (4-22), Dioner Navarro (2-9), Alfonso Soriano (6-44) and David DeJesus (1-5) have had their problems with Rodriguez. The Cubs are 4-8 versus left-handed starters and they are hitting .217 in those games. Pittsburgh's bullpen is 5-3 with a 2.08 ERA at home converting 9 of 12 save opportunities. We expect Pittsburgh to notch a solid home win in this game on Tuesday night. 9* Play PIRATES (-) (action).

Jose Fernandez makes his third start against the Phillies and he most likely won't see Ryan Howard or Carlos Ruiz. Howard is day-to-day with inflammation while Ruiz is DL bound. This helps out the rookie who has allowed just three hits and three walks over 13 innings pitched against Philadelphia. The righty is 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA in eight starts. He'll face a Philadelphia lineup that has scored just 4 total runs in their last three games and they have less than 10 hits in five straight games. The Marlins’ bullpen has an ERA under 3.00 as a unit at home. Tyler Cloyd is making his second start of the season. The righty gave up 2 runs and two hits in just over six innings pitched against the Diamondbacks on the road. The Marlins’ offense is historically bad. They scored 5 runs on Monday which was their highest run output since May 10th. Miami had scored 3 runs or less in eight straight games before the 5-run outburst. These two teams have played six Unders in their eight meetings this season, and we expect another low-scoring game on Tuesday night. 9* Play UNDER the total.

The Astros won for the third time over their last five games on Monday. Now they turn to Bud Norris who is 4-4 with a 4.32 ERA in nine starts. But Norris does his best work at home. The righty has allowed just 11 runs and 33 hits in five starts in Houston while winning three of those games. Only Alcides Escobar (1-4), Jeff Francoeur (0-3) and George Kottaras (2-8) have seen the righty before. This is a Kansas City team that has lost four straight games with their offense abandoning them in those games. Wade Davis is 3-3 with a 5.97 ERA in eight games. He has allowed 12 runs and 21 hits in his last three starts. The Astros are scoring nearly 4 runs per game even though the wins aren't coming. Houston has played much better baseball at home as 7 of their 13 wins this season have come in front of the home crowd. We see a lot of value in playing Houston plus the runs in this game, especially with Norris on the mound. 9* Play ASTROS (+1.5 runline).

Memphis came up short in Game 1 for us, but we have no hesitation in coming right back with the Grizzlies in Game 2. San Antonio won by 22 points (105-83), but that result is not a true indication of how close these two teams really are. In the four regular season meetings between the Grizzlies and Spurs, three of the four games were decided by 4 points or less with two of the games going into overtime. The Grizzlies remain a tough out for the Spurs despite the results in Game 1; Memphis won two of the four meetings and they lost by 4 points in overtime at San Antonio earlier this season. The 105 points allowed by Memphis was out of character, and in fact, the Grizzlies’ defense had held nine of their eleven opponents to 97 points or less in the playoffs prior to the last game. Even with the bad defensive effort in Game 1, Memphis has held their last five opponents to just 92 points per game on 42.1% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land. San Antonio exploded over the final three minutes of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter on Sunday afternoon. The Spurs only led by 6 points (62-56) before out-scoring the Grizzlies 43-27 over the final 15 minutes of the game. San Antonio also had 5 players score 11 points or more, including two guys on the second unit. That isn’t likely to repeat tonight. The Spurs shot 52.6% (40-76) from the field and they also shot 48.3% (14-29) from three-point land. Memphis’ defense is simply too good to allow those numbers again. Despite how bad they played, Memphis was still in the game late into the third quarter which means if they play up to their abilities tonight, they will take this game down to the buzzer. Memphis has played well off a loss this season, and in fact, the Grizzlies are 20-8 SU and 21-7 ATS versus tonight’s posted line in this situation. We expect a much closer game tonight, so we’ll take the points with Memphis. 10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).