Steve Merril
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Bengals/Steelers (NFL)
Miami-Fla/Georgia Tech (ESPN)
Pistons/Celtics (TNT)
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Steve Merril is considered one of the best sports analysts in the nation. He credits his success to employing a variety of different handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, trends and systems, and fundamentals such as matchups and emotion. By relying on numerous handicapping methods, Steve continues to beat the pointspread on a consistent basis in both college and pro football, basketball, baseball, and auto racing.
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Thursday, November 20, 2008
Miami Florida vs. Georgia Tech (NCAAF) - 7:45 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -3/-115 Georgia Tech
Win
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Georgia Tech’s starting quarterback Josh Nesbitt has been upgraded to probable and he is expected to play tonight. Georgia Tech has the advantage with extra preparation time for this game as they are coming off a bye-week, while Miami-Fla had to play last Thursday versus Virginia Tech. That was Miami’s final home game of the season and they must now travel and prepare for a very difficult Georgia Tech option offense.
Georgia Tech qualifies in a solid 64% ATS last home game situation tonight and we get line value after the Yellow Jackets misleading 28-7 loss versus North Carolina on November 8th. Georgia Tech held a 20-13 first down edge and a 423-314 total yard advantage, but they were done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit. Georgia Tech is still a strong defensive team and North Carolina only had one scoring drive of more than 39 yards in the entire game.
Georgia Tech is allowing just 15.4 points per game this season and only 4.4 yards per play (versus opponents that average 20.8 ppg and 4.7 yppl). Georgia Tech has been particularly strong versus the pass and they have allowed just 5.4 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 6.0 ypp). Miami-Fla is a weak offensive team that averages just 4.9 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 5.1 yppl) and they have a terrible passing attack that averages just 6.0 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 6.7 ypp), so Miami-Fla will struggle to move the ball tonight.
Miami is a decent defensive team, but they have not faced an option attack like Georgia Tech’s this season, and the Yellow Jackets have the overall offensive edge tonight as they average a solid 5.8 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.0 yppl).
Play GEORGIA TECH (-) as a 1 unit play.
Detroit Pistons vs. Boston Celtics (NBA) - 8:05 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 183.5/-101 Under
Win
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Pistons are coming off a physical home win versus Cleveland last night and it is doubtful that an aging Detroit squad will push the pace tonight in the second of back-to-back games. Boston will be glad to play a half-court, slow down game tonight and this was evident two weeks ago when the Celtics won 88-76 (164 total points).
This was also a very low-scoring series last year in the playoffs when the four of the six head-to-head meetings totaled 174 points or less with a 4-2 Under record and an average Over/Under line of just 174½ points per game.
The Celtics 110-101 win versus New York on Tuesday has increased the line value tonight as that high-scoring result was misleading as the Knicks prefer an extremely fast pace and Boston was without Kevin Garnett who is their best defensive player. Tonight’s game also fits a solid 182-106 Under situation.
Play UNDER as a 1 unit play.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 34.5/-108 Under
Loss
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
This should be a low-scoring game as the Bengals are the worst offensive team in the league and will now be facing the Steelers #1 ranked defense. Cincinnati is averaging just 13.8 points per game and only 4.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 19.9 ppg and 5.2 yppl) and the Bengals have struggled both running and passing the ball this season as they average just 83 rushing yards and only 3.5 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow 3.9 ypr) and they average a pathetic 4.6 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 6.2 ypp).
Things will not improve tonight as backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled all year and wide receiver Chad Johnson has been suspended for this game. Cincinnati will also be facing the best defense in the league as the Steelers are allowing just 15.0 points per game and only 4.1 yards per play (versus opponents that average 22.2 ppg and 5.4 yppl). The Steelers have been equally strong versus both the run and pass this year as they allow just 69 rushing yards per game and only 3.0 yards per carry (versus opponents that average 115 yards and 4.2 ypr) and Pittsburgh is permitting just 4.9 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 6.5 ypp).
These teams played last month and the 38-10 final score was a bit misleading as the score was only 17-10 in the middle of the fourth quarter before Pittsburgh scored three late touchdowns. Tonight’s weather conditions should lead to a lower scoring game as the forecast is calling for the possibility of both snow and wind.
Pittsburgh is a below average offensive team this season as they average just 5.2 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 5.4 yppl) and the Bengals have an underrated defense that has performed well this season and has allowed just 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that average 5.5 yppl).
NFL Game of the Week!
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The MAC conference has posted some success this year in non-conference games and one of those teams bringing them strong victories is Central Michigan. Last year the Chips were the MAC champions and lost a close game with Purdue in the Motor City Bowl 51-48. Now CMU enters a key game on Wednesday night versus Northern Illinois and the que ... read more
Below are two NBA opinions for Friday night. You can also get tonight's strongest NBA Best Bet and NCAA Football Winner on Steve Merril’s Premium Selections page!
INDIANA +8½ (at Cleveland) – 7:35 pm ET #507
The Cavaliers are coming off two big wins versus Dallas and Chicago and the Cavs might overlook Indiana tonight, especially with another game at Chicago tomorro ... read more