New England once again put together a terrific regular season as the Patriots went 13-3 SU en route to a divisional title and the #1 overall seed in the AFC. Since losing to the Giants back on November 6th, the Patriots have won 10 straight games coming into this Super Bowl. The majority of the talk is that New York is the hottest team coming into this game because they’ve won 5 straight games, but most are overlooking the fact that the Patriots have doubled that winning streak. When these two teams met in that November game, the Patriots opened as a 7½-point home favorite but they were bet up and closed as a 9½-point favorite, and that fact has been lost on many as well. The Patriots’ offense was one of the best in the NFL as they averaged 31 points and 414 yards per game. New England eclipsed those seasonal averages in 12 games this season, including the Giants game when the Patriots had 438 yards of total offense despite only scoring 20 points. Quarterback Tom Brady has had a spectacular season throwing for over 6,200 yards with 48 touchdown passes and just 16 interceptions. Brady did not play well in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens as he threw 0 TD passes and 2 interceptions. However, Brady has bounced back brilliantly from multiple-interception games, following them up with some of his career-best performances. In such rebound games, Brady has posted a record of 23-6 for a winning percentage of .793, which is even higher than his stellar career winning percentage of .780. Brady’s average passer rating also jumps nearly 30 points (81.6 to 108.6) from the bad games to the rebound performances. Brady flew his longtime throwing coach, Tom Martinez, to Foxboro after the Ravens game to work on his mechanics. And Martinez was quoted as saying, “Every time we get together, there seems to be some magic,” after landing at the Patriots’ practice facility. Prior to their season opener in Miami, Brady summoned Martinez to work on his throwing motion; the quarterback shredded the Dolphins for 517 yards and 4 touchdown passes. Brady also spoke to the Patriots’ owner after defeating the Ravens. “Here is what Brady said to me,” owner Robert Kraft said. “I promise you I’m going to play a lot better in two weeks.” Brady’s 57.5 passer rating against the Ravens was his worst of the season, so we expect a supreme performance from Brady in this game, especially considering the historical success he’s had after a poor outing. The Giants got hot late this season, but let’s not forget that this is still a 7-loss football team. That’s no misprint; the Giants have an overall record of 12-7 SU coming into this game. New York can blame early season injuries for their poor record, but still, this is a team that has been beating pretty easily this year. The biggest knock on the Giants is their defense as they’ve allowed 23 points or more in 9 games this season. Against the good offensive teams they’ve faced in the regular season, New York gave up 49 points to the Saints, 38 points to the Packers, and 34 points to the Cowboys. They did in fact hold the Patriots to just 20 points in an early season meeting, but New England moved the ball at will in that game with 438 yards of total offense. New York’s offense has played well for the majority of the season, but they’ll have to trade points with the potent Patriots’ offense to be competitive in this game. Many people want to compare this Giants team to the one that upset the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, but we think that’s fool’s gold. The Patriots were in line to go undefeated that season and they were visibly tight for that game. They still held a 14-10 lead with less than a minute to play before the Giants threw the game-winning TD pass. This is a totally different scenario now and the Patriots will be much looser than they were for that game. We see some tremendous value in laying less than a field goal with the Patriots in this game, especially knowing that all 15 of their wins have come by 3 points or more and all 7 of the Giants’ losses have come by 3 points or more giving us a perfect 22-0 ATS angle. New England is the superior team in this game and the Patriots will win Super Bowl XLVI much easier than expected. 10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

This Super Bowl figures to be a much higher scoring game than ones in year’s past. The Giants and Patriots both possess very strong offenses while both defensive units leave a lot to be desired. This game will also be played indoors on the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium which will certainly be a major advantage for the offenses. The Giants played in three dome stadiums this season; those games had totals of 58, 73, and 71 points scored. The Patriots did not play a game in a dome stadium this season, but last year they played in a 69-point game in Detroit and the year before that saw a 69-point game in Indianapolis, a 55-point game in New Orleans, and a 61-point game in Houston. New England’s offense was one of the best in the NFL as they averaged 31 points and 414 yards per game. The Patriots eclipsed those seasonal averages in 12 games this season, including the Giants game when the Patriots had 438 yards of total offense despite only scoring 20 points. Quarterback Tom Brady has had a spectacular season throwing for over 6,200 yards with 48 touchdown passes and just 16 interceptions. The Patriots have scored 41 points or more in three of their last five games, and they’ve gone Over the total in seven of their last eight games. They will be facing a New York defense that hasn’t played a tough slate of opposing offenses this season. Aside from the Patriots game, the Giants faced three strong offensive teams in the regular season and the results were not pretty. New York gave up 49 points to the Saints, 38 points to the Packers, and 34 points to the Cowboys. It’s interesting to note that two of those three games came indoors on a fast track. New York quarterback Eli Manning also had a terrific season. Manning has thrown for over 6,100 yards this season with a 37/19 TD/INT ratio. He is also completing 60.2% of his passes while averaging over 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Manning’s passing will be a stiff test for the makeshift New England secondary. The Patriots have not been good at defending the pass this year as they are allowing 284 yards per game on 7.5 yards per pass attempt. New England’s defense will be hard-pressed to contain Manning and the Giants’ passing offense in this game. With two of the best quarterbacks in the league facing two suspect defenses, we expect a high-scoring shootout between the Giants and Patriots in Super Bowl XLVI. 9* Play OVER the total.