Mike Pelfrey was terrible in the National League. He's terrible in the American League. Tim Hudson is in bad form. Pelfrey's ERA is 6.57. Hudson has a 5.12 ERA, surrendering 11 runs in his last two starts spanning 8 2/3 innings. Minnesota pitchers have the fewest strikeouts. Pelfrey is not a strikeout pitcher either. So the free-swinging Braves are likely to get their bat on the ball. Pelfrey's ERA is 6.75 during his last three starts in Atlanta The Braves have the superior bullpen, but have recently lost three key setup men, two of whom are likely done for the season. That makes both teams vulnerable in the middle innings. The wind is blowing out at around 10 mph and the home plate umpire is slated to be Paul Nauert. The over has covered 54 percent of the time during the past three years he's been behind the plate.

Kansas City has lost the last six times it has been favored, including falling to the Astros on Monday. Now they face the Astros' best picher, Bud Norris, with a cold Wade Davis and likely missing their starting catcher. Yet the Royals are favored again. I'm not buying that. Norris has been pitching well prior to his last start going 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA in four previous outings. He is a far better pitcher at home. That historical trend has held up well this year where he's 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA in five starts at Minute Maid Park. Norris should be strong, too, as he's pitching on two extra days of rest. The Royals have lost four in a row. They are likely to be missing their .300-hitting catcher Salvador Perez, who exited Monday's game with a bruised hip. Davis started the season fast, but has been awful lately with an 8.39 ERA in his last five starts.

Max Scherzer versus Corey Kluber is a colossal pitching mismatch, especially with Scherzer's history of bouncing back. The Tigers surprisingly lost to the Astros at home when Scherzer last pitched this past Wednesday. Detroit was idle on Monday, but lost to Texas on Sunday. The Tigers are 8-2 in Scherzer's last 10 starts following a loss. Detroit also is 6-2 the past eight times Scherzer has pitched on five days rest. Scherzer has been better on the road compiling a 1.23 ERA. He's backed by the best hitter in baseball, Miguel Cabrera. Kluber has problems with Cabrera, who is 4-for-9 against him with a homer. Cabrera is batting .376 with 10 homers and 30 RBIs in his last 26 games against Cleveland. Kluber had a 5.14 ERA last season. This season his ERA is 5.40. The Tigers scored eight runs off him in less than five innings when they faced him less than two weeks ago. Cleveland is 1-7 during Kluber's last eight home starts. The Indians also have lost six of the past seven times when they've faced Detroit with Scherzer on the mound.