Very rarely will you get this kind of value in a line when the Phillies have Cliff Lee on the mound. Lee is 4-2 on the season with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.076 WHIP. What is most impressive about lee is his ability to keep the bullpen fresh by going an average of 7.1 innings per game. Tony Cingrani will start for the Reds today. Cingrani has given up 6 home runs in 5 starts and he is coming off two games in which he received a no decision due to giving up runs early in the game. With Cingrani struggling early into the game and Cliff Lee starting for the Phillies the bullpen should have no problem closing out this game for a win. Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games when playing against a team winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are facing a Cincinnati team that is 1-4 in their last 5 games versus. a left-handed starter. The Reds are also 2-7 in their last 9 games as a road underdog.

This matchup falls into a system to play against road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like Toronto when they have a .260 batting average or worse and when they are playing against an excellent starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better and an average bullpen with an ERA of 3.75 to 4.50 on the season. This system is 45-11 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. The Yankees have owned Toronto over the years going 18-4 against them over the last 3 seasons and going 6-1 against them this season. Today’s matchup looks like another one that gives the Yankees a huge advantage with Hiroki Kuroda facing off against Mark Buehrle. Buehrle has struggled on the road this season posting a 7.15 ERA in four starts. Kuroda has a 5-2 record overall and a 2.31 ERA. In Kuroda’s last three starts he has posted a 1.66 ERA and 1.061 WHIP. With such a huge advantage at the starting pitcher position this game should end in favor of New York.

Seattle has been ice cold in the batter’s box this season. They have a .226 batting average on the road and are averaging just 3.7 runs per game. Those numbers will not be good enough to beat this Cleveland team that is hitting .264 and scoring 4.9 runs per game. Ubaldo Jimenez has been on fire in his last three starts posting a 3-0 record and 1.45 ERA. He has 20 strikeouts in 18.7 innings pitched and has a 0.857 WHIP. In his career against Seattle he is a perfect 2-0 with one no decision. In those three starts he has a 1.258 WHIP. There are some interesting trends that play heavily in favor of Cleveland today. The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. American League West and 4-0 in their last 4 home games against a right-handed starter. They are also 4-0 in Jimenez’s last 4 starts.

This is a strong value play when Boston takes on an overrated Twins team. Minnesota is 10-30 against the money line in home games against AL East opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Twins have no lost four of their last six games coming into this matchup against the Red Sox. Boston has been crushing right handed starters this season posting a .267 batting average and a .341 on base percentage while scoring 5.1 runs per game. The Twins on the other hand have struggled against righties batting .245 and getting struck out a total of 265 times in 31 games. Clay Buchholz has been nothing short of amazing for Boston. He has a 6-0 record in 8 starts and has posted a 1.69 ERA and 1.040 WHIP overall this season. In looking at his performance on the road it is hard to believe that he can improve on those numbers, but he does. He has a 0.64 ERA and 0.929 WHIP and a 2-0 record when starting away from home.

James Shields is 13-against the money line in road games against teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times per game over the last 3 seasons. Jarrod Parker will get the start for Oakland and he is having some major issues this season. Kansas City is 12-5 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control, more than 2.75 walks per start, over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are batting .267 over the past 7 games and scoring an average of 5.4 runs per game. For Oakland the hitting woes continue posting a .215 batting average over the past 7 games and averaging 3.1 runs per game. In that same seven game span for Oakland their opponents have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game. Shields has a 1.57 ERA in his last three starts and a 2.48 ERA overall this season. He has 53 strikeouts in 8 games and has allowed only 4 home runs all season. Jarrod Parker has posted a 9.61 ERA at home with a 1-3 record in those four starts. He has averaged only 4.9 innings per start at home this season.