I'm playing on UTAH. Pittsburgh comes in with the higher ranking. In fact, the Panthers, ranked #15 in the country, are the highest ranked opponent that Utah has opened the season against. I feel that the Utes are favored for good reason though. Last year was supposed to be the 'rebuilding year.' All the Utes did was go 10-3 and win their 9th straight bowl game. This year, the Utes enter the season in much better offensive shape than they did last season. Last year, there was a battle for the top QB spot. This year, Jordan Wynn comes is firmly entrenched as the starter. Wynn started the final five games last season and the offense produced nearly 35 points per game. Working behind an experienced (4 returning starters) offensive line, Wynn is complemented by an excellent running game (Senior tailback Eddie Wide rushed for 1069 yards and 12 TD and was a 1st Team All-MWC performer) and a deep receiving corps, led by senior Jereme Brooks (56 catches, 696 yards, 7 TDs). The Utes should have a solid defensive line, as they return three quality starters. While their secondary is unproven, they're athletic. The Panthers may not be able to exploit the secondary, as they have a QB making his first start. Pittsburgh is ranked for a reason. The Panthers have plenty of talent, including star running back Dion Lewis and receiver Jonathan Baldwin. However, unlike Utah, as mentioned, the Panthers don't have experience at the quarterback position. Tino Sunseri has a lot of potential and should have a decent year. However, making his first start at a stadium where the home team almost never loses is difficult. As Utah coach Kyle Whittingham had this to say: "Experienced quarterback doesn't guarantee success, but it is a great starting point..." While slowing down Lewis will not be easy, the Utes figure to load up against him and try to force Sunseri to beat them. Playing in this hostile environment, I won't be surprised to see a Pittsburgh miscue or two. The Utes are determined to show that they will be a factor again this year and that they are worthy of next season's conference move. They're 3-0 SU/ATS their last three against teams from the Big East and 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they played a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. While I certainly respect the Panthers, with the line having fallen from its opener, I expect the Utes to improve on those stats here. *10

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. Many will look at this game and scratch their heads. They'll see the winless Chiefs laying points vs. a Green Bay team which they just saw dominate on National TV. I believe the Chiefs are favored for good reason though, as I see this one as a case of one team (KC) badly needing a victory vs. another team (GB) which has nothing to prove. The Packers are 2-1 and their QB (Aaron Rodgers) has looked terrific. They are coming off a game in which they scored more points (59) than any team in a preseason game since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Their main priority should definitely be staying healthy here. On the other hand, the Chiefs have been dismal for years and are 0-3 in this preseason. They could badly use a victory. Looking back to last preseason and we find that three teams were winless and playing at home for their Week 4 game. Those teams (Denver, Carolina and Jacksonville) went 2-1. The three winless home teams outscored their opponents by a combined score of 53-38. Note that the Packers were 3-0 heading into Week 4 of last preseason. They went on the road and lost 27-13. The Chiefs are moving in the right direction. Despite losing by three vs. the Eagles, they played arguably their best preseason game under coach Haley and they had an edge in total yards in that game. Haley was quoted as saying: "I think there's a lot of progress being made. It's encouraging the way we are blocking up front and the way we are moving the football on the ground. Those are good trends and good signs for the direction things are going. That was the most positive sign to date of this football team and the direction we're going. I know it's a preseason game, but the things we've been talking about from day one - being smart, tough, physical - the physical nature of that game was evident." He went on to say: "If we play with that amount of effort and that physical on a down-in and down-out basis on both sides of the ball, that we're going to be able to make good things happen." Overall, despite their 0-3 record, the Chiefs have outrushed their opponents by a total of 140 yards, had a better pass completion average and they've had 60 first downs while only allowing 48. Regardless of what Haley might say, he could really use a victory here. I expect his team to be the more motivated squad and look for that to lead to a convincing win and cover. *10

I'm playing on Denver and Minnesota to finish UNDER the total. This game doesn't figure to mean much to either team. The Vikings already have their minds on next Thursday's NFC Finals rematch with the Saints. As for the Broncos, they accomplished what they wanted last week - a big win for the home fans and a small measure of payback against a Pittsburgh team which had embarrassed them here the previous season. That was a Sunday game, meaning that the Broncos are playing on a very short week here. Note that the Broncos didn't allow a single point (19-0 victory) in their Week 4 game last season. With the Vikings slated to play in next Thursday's opener, its interesting to note that the two teams (Titans and Steelers) which were involved in last year's Opening Night game both played very well defensively in their final (Week 4) preseason game. In fact, that's been the case for several seasons now. Last year, the Titans allowed only 13 points. The Steelers allowed a mere 10. A closer look reveals that the Titans and Steelers allowed only three combined points in the first half of their games. The previous season (2008) saw the Giants and Redskins play the Opening Thursday game. Those two teams saw their Week 4 preseason games finished with combined scores of 33 and 27 points. The Giants held the Patriots scoreless for three quarters before allowing a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns. In 2007, it was the high-scoring Saints and Colts which met on the Opening Thursday. While they'd combine for 51 points in their regular season game, neither team was involved in a high-scoring game in Week 4 of the preseason. In fact, the Saints saw their game finish with a score of 7-0 and the Colts saw their game finish with a score of 14-6. The Saints didn't allow a point the entire game and the Colts didn't allow a point the entire first half. Adding up those results and we find that the last six teams, which have been involved in the "Opening Thursday Night Night NFL game," have seen their final preseason games average just 24.67 points. Only one of the six games finished with greater than 33 points. The Broncos limited Arizona to 244 yards, nine first downs and 0 points in last season's preseason finale. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair here. *9

I'm playing on the Saints and Titans to finish UNDER the total. Fans that are "diehard" enough to watch preseason all just saw the Saints win big (36-21) against the Chargers on Friday, as that game was televised on CBS. The Saints have been a very high-scoring team so far this preseason and have seen the 'over' go 3-0. With the Saints being the Super Bowl champs, that hasn't gone unnoticed. That's helped lead to a generously high O/U line for their game vs. the Titans. With this being a Week 4 game, I believe that its too high. The Titans have seen two of their three preseason games stay below the total. All three games finished with 38 or less. Last season, their Week 4 game finished with 40 total points. Last season, the Saints saw their Week 2 and Week 3 preseason games both finish with greater than 50 points. Yet, their Week 4 preseason game finished with only 17. The previous preseason, the Saints Week 4 game finished with 24 total points. The previous season, their Week 4 preseason game produced only seven points. With the Saints slated to play in next Thursday's opener, its interesting to note that the two teams (Titans and Steelers) which were involved in last year's Opening Night game both played very well defensively in their final (Week 4) preseason game. In fact, that's been the case for several seasons now. Last year, the Titans allowed only 13 points. The Steelers allowed a mere 10. A closer look reveals that the Titans and Steelers allowed only three combined points in the first half of their games. The previous season (2008) saw the Giants and Redskins play the Opening Thursday game. Those two teams saw their Week 4 preseason games finished with combined scores of 33 and 27 points. The Giants held the Patriots scoreless for three quarters before allowing a pair of fourth quarter touchdowns. In 2007, it was the high-scoring Saints and Colts which met on the Opening Thursday. While they'd combine for 51 points in their regular season game, neither team was involved in a high-scoring game in Week 4 of the preseason. In fact, the Saints saw their game finish with a score of 7-0 and the Colts saw their game finish with a score of 14-6. The Saints didn't allow a point the entire game and the Colts didn't allow a point the entire first half. Adding up those results and we find that the last six teams, which have been involved in the "Opening Thursday Night Night NFL game," have seen their final preseason games average just 24.67 points. Only one of the six games finished with greater than 33 points and all seven finished with less than 41. Neither team or coach has anything to prove and I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. *8

I'm playing on USC and Hawaii to finish UNDER the total. These teams have played some extremely high-scoring games against each other in the past, with USC putting up huge offensive numbers. Most will be expecting another high-scoring affair on opening night. That perception has helped to provide us with a generously high O/U number to work with. For a Week 1 game, I believe that its too high. Yes, the Trojans will come in looking to make a statement. They've had a ton of offseason "issues" and would love to start the season with a blowout victory. They will very likely will put up fairly big numbers here. However, even though Kiffin has said he'll open things up more this season, they figure to run the ball quite regularly in this first game. That should help to keep the clock moving while helping to keep Hawaii's 'quick strike' offense off the field. One of the reasons for this is that Hawaii's defense brought back seven starters and that the Warriors' secondary is very experienced. Note that Warriors' safety Mana Silva led the WAC with six interceptions last season. Yes, Hawaii does have a couple of weapons on offense. QB Bryant Moniz has shown flashes and he's got some very capable receivers at his disposal. That said, he's also working behind a very inexperienced offensive line. With USC defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin well aware of Hawaii's inexperienced line, Moniz is likely to have Trojans in his face all night. The Trojans have seen the UNDER go 6-3 the last nine times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range. They've also seen the UNDER go a profitable 5-1 in September the past couple of seasons. The Trojans have also seen the UNDER go 3-1 the last four times that they played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 49.5 to 56. During that stretch, the Warriors have seen the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 when playing a home game with a total in the 49.5 to 56 range. With the defenses often a little ahead of the offenses at this time of year, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. *9

I'm playing on the Yankees and A's to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series were both high-scoring, each finishing above the total. Yesterday's game appeared on pace to do the same, as the score was 4-3 in the top of the 5th. No more runs were scored though, despite the teams combining for 20 hits. This afternoon's finale features a pair of highly capable southpaws, both in excellent current form. I expect a low-scoring affair. For starters, note that the A's have seen the UNDER go 26-13-4 when playing in the afternoon. One of the reasons for those profitable 'under' stats is that the A's have gotten very strong pitching during the afternoon. One of their pitchers who has performed well during the afternoon is Dallas Braden. Braden is 4-7 with a solid 3.44 ERA at night. However, he's 5-2 with a stellar 2.98 ERA during the day. Opposing hitters are batting only .211 in those games. Of course, Braden has been outstanding lately, regardless of the time of day. Over his last three starts, he's got a superb 1.64 ERA and 0.682 WHIP. Last time out, pitching on the road at Texas, he tossed a complete-game 4-hit shutout. The A's won 5-0. For the season, Braden has a 3.28 ERA and 1.106 WHIP and has seen the UNDER go a lucractive 15-8. Sabathia checks in at an impressive 18-5 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.228 WHIP. At home, he's gone a perfect 10-0 with an excellent 2.46 ERA and 1.062 WHIP at home. Like Braden, Sabathia has been very stingy during the afternoon. Opposing hitters are batting only .203 against him during the day, as compared to .275 during the evening. Braden has made one start against the Yankees this season and that also happened to come against Sabathia. The final score of that 4/22 game was 4-2. Sabathia has faced the A's once since then and he allowed just one run in 7 2/3 innings. The final score of that one was 6-1. Including the 6-1 loss to Sabathia, the A's have seen the UNDER go 11-7-2 their last 20 vs. southpaw starters, including 2-0 their last two on the road. I expect those stats to improve here. *8

I'm playing on SEATTLE. These teams are both playing out the string, as thoughts of the playoffs are ancient history. Both teams lost again yesterday, both suffering 'tough' losses. Seattle outhit the Angels 10-5 but still managed to lose 4-2. After falling behind 1-0 in the first inning, the Mariners tied the game in the third. They briefly held a 2-1 lead before the Angels reclaimed it in the 7th inning and added an insurance run in the eighth. Cleveland's loss was arguably even more difficult to swallow. Not only were the Indians trying to avoid a sweep, they held a lead from the 4th inning right until the 8th. They got a great game from Carrasco, in his 2010 debut, but squandered it by allowing four runs in the 8th and another in the 9th. Off that difficult setback, they then had to travel across the country to get ready for this series. Fister goes for the Mariners and he's been excellent at home all season. In 13 starts here, he's got a stellar 2.99 ERA and 1.053. He's averaged 6 2/3 innings in his starts here and has walked only 12 batters, less than one per game. Fister hasn't received much run support though and that was the case again his last start. Fister went seven innings and allowed only one run. However, the Mariners couldn't manage a single run and lost 1-0. Fister should get some better run support here though. While it didn't translate to many runs, the Mariners did manage 29 hits in the 3-game series with the Angels, pounding out nine, 10 and 10 in the three games. That was against some fairly tough Angel pitching. Now, the M's will face Josh Tomlin, who brings a 4.91 road ERA to the table. Tomlin got the win in his last start. However, he was far from dominant. Facing KC, he allowed eight hits and walked four batters, in just five innings. He had only one strikeout and gave up three runs. That gives him a 5.62 ERA and 2.00 WHIP his last three starts. The Indians are just 24-41 on the road this season and they've struggled as road underdogs of this size. Coming off what managed Manny Acta described as "tough series" and now flying across the country to face a pitcher who has been "tough" at SafeCo all season, I expect their road woes to continue for another day. *10