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Yards-Per-Point Barometer
By John Ryan
September 24, 2012
There are essentially an uncountable amount of handicapping techniques and the internet forums are filled with amatuer handicpapers touting their epertiese. Some are quite interesting and meaningful, but the majority, unfortunately, are wasted effort. Now, I am not saying in the least that the following statistical measure is a single ‘pot of gold’ for NFl betting success, but it is a very reliable measure of NFL offensive and defensive efficiencies.
I will be providing this report each week with the offensive rankings released Monday and the defensive rankings released Tuesday, so that you can use it as a piece of your handicapping arsenal and get your hands around how NFL teams are executing their respective gameplans. I can tell you with confidence that the teams that are in the top-5 and bottom-5 of these rankings can offer some immediate and relevant evaluation of them.
Let’s take a look at the charts below and see where your favorite teams rank among the offensive and defensive yards per point ratios.
Offensive Yards Per Point Ranking
Rank
Team
2012
Last 3
Last 1
Home
Away
2011
1
Atlanta
11.0
11.0
14.2
10.2
11.3
15.5
2
Chicago
11.8
11.8
11.9
11.0
16.8
14.2
3
Arizona
11.8
11.8
10.8
11.6
12.2
16.6
4
Tampa Bay
12.2
12.2
16.6
16.1
10.8
17.8
5
NY Jets
12.2
12.2
16.9
8.0
18.4
13.2
6
Washington
12.3
12.3
12.3
12.3
12.2
18.7
7
Buffalo
12.8
12.8
14.3
10.8
14.1
15.1
8
Baltimore
12.8
12.8
16.2
12.4
14.1
14.5
9
Seattle
13.2
13.2
11.7
11.7
15.9
15.1
10
Houston
13.5
13.5
14.1
11.2
14.6
15.6
11
Denver
13.6
13.6
15.0
12.7
16.0
16.6
12
NY Giants
13.6
13.6
11.2
15.1
11.2
15.7
13
Pittsburgh
13.6
13.6
14.0
12.3
14.3
18.3
14
New Orleans
13.6
13.6
12.0
11.5
18.0
13.7
15
Cincinnati
13.8
13.8
12.6
11.0
15.7
15.3
16
Tennessee
13.9
13.9
9.9
12.6
21.2
16.5
17
New England
14.3
14.3
13.2
21.5
12.3
13.4
18
Green Bay
14.3
14.3
14.0
14.3
--
11.8
19
St Louis
14.4
14.4
26.7
14.6
14.1
23.5
20
San Francisco
14.4
14.4
21.5
12.9
15.3
13.2
21
Detroit
15.0
15.0
14.2
15.9
14.7
13.4
22
Minnesota
15.1
15.1
14.3
14.7
16.4
15.5
23
San Diego
15.1
15.1
93.3
17.0
11.7
15.5
24
Cleveland
15.6
15.6
17.1
15.0
16.3
21.2
25
Jacksonville
15.6
15.6
15.1
16.7
15.4
17.1
26
Oakland
17.0
17.0
9.4
13.4
30.5
16.9
27
Miami
17.0
17.0
19.1
15.1
27.5
15.4
28
Indianapolis
17.6
17.6
25.7
17.9
17.0
18.9
29
Kansas City
19.5
19.5
18.9
16.4
21.2
23.5
30
Carolina
21.0
21.0
46.7
18.8
30.1
15.4
31
Dallas
21.8
21.8
18.6
18.6
23.5
16.3
32
Philadelphia
26.6
26.6
51.3
20.2
33.2
16.1
The first team that truly sticks out on this list are the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank dead last with a horrific 26.6 offensive yards per point ratio. This means that it take them an average of 26.6 yards to score one point on the scoreboard. This high a number immediately reflects poor execution in the red zone and a poor turnover ratio. The Eagles are a better team than this statistic now indicates, so by itself it suggests a ‘stay away’ rating for the Eagles.
They cannot be trusted to play better with Michael Vick getting hit and knocked down far too many times in just the first three games. he is on pace to be hit or knocked down more than 200 times by very strong athletes weighing at least 250 pounds on average. Imagine yourself getting hammered 200 times by these types of athletes and it is obvious that the Eagles must change their offensive scheme if they are to compete for a playoff berth.
Here is how I look at these tables. if a team is sporting a ratio ranging between 10 and 13 yards per point they are executing at a very high level and are able to also take advantage of opponent turnovers and put points on the board off of them. Teams in this range are often times gaining field position and working on a short field. Teams that post a 15 and higher showing an ability to execute scoring drives and to execute in the red zone. It can also indirectly reflect a team that has an above average amount of turnovers too. Defensively, it is the direct opposite. Teams with numbers above 17 are some of the best defenses in the league and teams sporting a measure of 13 or less are being gouged by opponents.
On the Week 4 card we have an ‘extreme’ matchup based on this ratio alone. The Carolina Panthers will play the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday. The Falcons have executed very well and rank best in the NFL with an 11.0 offensive yards per point. By comparison, Carolina has struggled to find a consistency on offense and rank 30th in the NFL posting a miserable 21.0 offensive yards per point. I expect the Falcons to be favored by roughly nine points in this matchup.
I will be very interested to see if the public betting flows start to join the Falcons bandwagon and push this line higher. If that is the case, it would serve to minimize the statistical advantage of the YPP ratio that the Falcons have for this matchup. That is just one example of why a winning sports handicapper does not just one or two statistical indicators. However, the YPP stat offers an excellent starting point in determining whether a ‘strong’ team deserves the betting line posted and if a poor YPP ranked team deserves the beating the line reflects.
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