Week One NFL Handicapping Manifesto


by Jeff Hochman

Jeff has enjoyed 5 straight winning NFL seasons fully documented. Jump on board today.


Value is the Key

Not just for underdogs! There are many games in the NFL when taking a favorite is the more Valued play.

You will hear many people say I only take favorites in the NFL and you will also hear many people say I only take Underdogs. In the NFL everyone has their preference but if you only stick to one or the other you CAN'T and WON'T show a profit by seasons end.

You have to think one step ahead of the odds-makers and treat sports handicapping as a business rather than a hobby.


5-Year plan

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week #1 are just 34-46-7 ATS (42.5%). This of course implies that roadies on the blind are a 57.5% winning proposition during this time.

Jo public has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week #1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the odds-makers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

The odds-makers also know that Jo Public loves to bet overs and will inflate the line on purpose in Week one. If You like the Over in Week one you will be paying a 2-4 point OVER tax.

NFL Week One games with an Over/Under of 46 or more points are 29-44 O/U since 1999. Maybe the hot weather has something to do with all the low week one scores. Interesting stuff, a 61% simple angle on Under the Total in week #1 all totals of 46 or more!

Who Let the Dogs Out?

Favorites are just 34-46-9 ATS in Week #1 the past five NFL seasons. This means that underdogs bark at a 57.5% clip. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and -6 1/2 are only 9-17 ATS (31%) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –7 1/2 have stumbled to a 10-21 ATS (32.5%) in Week one games the past five seasons.

Playoff Teams from Last Season

It might surprise you (it did to me) to learn that playoff teams from the prior year vs. non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 17-26-5 (40%) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 9-16-2 ATS (33%) during this time.

The odds-makers will intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.


Don't get trapped in week One. Good Luck this football season.
 

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