by Jim Feist
It’s been a while! Seattle was last in the Super Bowl after the 2005 campaign while we haven’t seen Denver here since the late 1990s with some guy named John Elway behind center. Back in August the Broncos were 6-to-1 and the Seahawks 17-to-2 to win the Super Bowl, both ranked in the Top 5, so it’s the “NFL Year of the Chalk.”
We had been in a golden age for the AFC for a while, almost as if the pendulum had swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 10 of the last 16, including last year wit the Ravens, though the Saints, Packers and Giants won the previous three.
What we have in 2014 is finesse versus physical, the high flying modern QB against the old fashioned, powerhouse defense. We also have the first outdoor game in cold weather since the 1970s when the Steelers and Vikings played in 39 degree temperatures (Tulane stadium).
We’ve seen the Colts and Saints meet in the Super Bowl, the top two offensive teams, the pass-happy Patriots, and even the Arizona Cardinals wining it with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald. But let’s face it: Defense is still King. The Giants won two titles with great defense, topping the Patriots, and last year the Ravens and 49ers were physical, punishing defenses, topping finesse teams in the conference championships. Remember that when the Packers and Steelers squared off three years ago they were ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed, so defense is still very much alive and dominating.
The Seahawks hope to continue a trend: The underdog is 9-3 ATS the last 12 Super Bowls, winning six times. Here's a look at what to expect this weekend as America's unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off.
What the Broncos want to do: If the game is an uptempo track meet, the Broncos have the best lineup on the planet with 37-year old Peyton Manning (55 TDs, 10 INTs, 5,477 yard and his record setting passing attack with WR Demaryius Thomas (1,430 yards, 14 TDs), WR Eric Decker (1,288 yards), WR Wes Welker (778) and TE Julius Thomas (788). No one has really been able to slow them down. The over is 34-16-2 in the Broncos last 52 vs. a team with a winning record.
The defense, though, has been a mixed bag, decent against the run, but suspect in the secondary. They’ve had injuries, too, losing speedy DE Von Miller and their top cornerback just two weeks ago, Chris Harris. They have been in every game with their only losses by 7, 6 and 3 points. The Broncos are 4-9 ATS on fieldturf and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games.
What the Seahawks want to do: Forget about any track meet. This is an old-fashioned style of team from the 1920s (or maybe the 1985 Bears) that prefers to knock the tar out of opponents from the opening kickoff through the first quarter. They are a physical, dominating defense that can stuff the run, rush the passer, and for good measure the athletic secondary is No. 1 against the pass. Even in their worst defensive game, a 34-28 loss at Indy, the defense allowed just 317 total yards and still forced 2 turnovers.
The offense does whatever is needed, a conservative group behind quiet, cerebral QB Russell Wilson (26 TDs, 9 picks, 3,357 yards), who chipped in 539 yards rushing, and power back Marshawn Lynch (1,257 yds, 4.2 ypc), a bruising back who seems to get better in the fourth quarter as defensive players tire.
Seattle is on a 34-16-1 ATS run, plus a 7-0 run under the total. The Seahawks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 games on fieldturf, 13-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The last 38 years the "over" has gone 22-16 in Super Bowl play, though the under is 6-3 the last nine years. Enjoy the big game!
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