by Jim Feist

Rematch of the 2008 Super Bowl thriller with the Giants scoring late to stop the 18-0 Patriots, 17-14. Much of the same cast returns for both teams, including the head coaches. The Giants have 14 players remaining from the 2008 Super Bowl team, the Patriots have seven. Back in August the Patriots were 5-to-1 and the Giants 18-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.

We have been in a golden age for the AFC for a while. It's almost as if the pendulum has swung. During the 1980s and much of the 90s, the NFC dominated, winning 15 of 16 Super Bowls, including 13 in a row. That changed in 1998 when Denver upset Green Bay, 31-24. Since then, the AFC has won 9 of the last 14, though the Giants would like to make it three in a row after the Saints and Packers won the last two seasons.

Since 2004 rules have been changed by the NFL to favor offense. That includes enforcing the 5-yard rule to help wide receivers get down field with less hindrance and the Tom Brady rule, which protects quarterbacks. When the top-ranked offenses met two years ago, following the pass-happy Arizona Cardinals surprising run to the Super Bowl the previous season, many wondered if offense was now they way to build a championship team.

We get another answer to that puzzle as the Patriots are the modern "flashy offense" while the Giants are old school, with a powerhouse defensive line. Defense has almost always been the name of the game this time of the season and it appears defense has made a significant statement. The Saints and Packers got it done with offense this season, but the defensive-oriented 49ers and Giants upset them in the playoffs. A year ago in the conference finals, four teams (Steelers, Jets, Packers, Bears) were ranked in the Top 10 in total defense and Top 6 in points allowed. The Packers and Steelers are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in points allowed, so maybe defense isn't dead yet!

The Giants have been amazing in that they were 7-7 and on the bubble to even make the playoffs before a sizzling 5-0 Su/ATS run. And how bad is this New England defense? They were second worst during the regular season, but have allowed 10 and 20 points in two playoff games, highlighted by the return of S Patrick Chung and LB Brandon Spikes, out much of the year.

The Giants hope to continue a trend: The underdog is 7-3 ATS the last ten Super Bowls, winning four times. Here's a look at what to expect this weekend as America's unofficial national holiday, the Super Bowl, kicks off.

What the Giants want to do: New York prefers to run the football and control the clock with RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs, which will be imperative against New England’s no-huddle attack that can tire out defenses. The Giants rushed for 173 yards against the Falcons 6th-ranked run defense in the postseason and the NY defense allowed 247 total yards.

Their defensive front is so big and talented they probably won’t have to blitz a lot to get pressure on Tom Brady, which is what took place in the 2008 Super Bowl as the New England offensive line was manhandled.

While everyone is talking about the New York defensive line, don’t forget that QB Eli Manning (37 TDs, 17 INTs) leads an offense that is 5th in the NFL in passing, with 296 yards per game. WR Victor Cruz has been outstanding (1,536 yards) along with WR Hakeem Nicks (1,192 yds) and will be a handful for this soft New England secondary. The Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games, the Under is 8-2 in the Giants last 10 playoff games.

What the Patriots want to do: Get out in front early with their no-huddle and force the Giants to throw the football, playing their game. The Pats are at their best when forcing the other team to push the tempo which allows them to force turnovers, a formula they used last season, as well, when they led the league in turnovers while going 14-2.

The Patriots (15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS) offense is explosive behind QB Tom Brady (45 TDs, 15 INTs), WR Wes Welker (1,569 yards) and budding young star Rob Gronkowski (1,327 yards), as his 17 TDs set a record for tight ends.

These teams met November 6 at New England and the Giants won, 24-20, as Manning threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Jake Ballard with 15 seconds left. The Patriots had 438 yards (332 passing) but were 5 of 15 on third down; the Giants had 361 yards (250 passing and were 4 of 14 on third down. The Patriots turned it over 4 times (2 picks by Brady) while the Giants turned it over twice. Manning completed 20 of 39 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Brady was 28 for 49 for 342 yards and two touchdowns. Over the last 35 years, the "over" has gone 21-15 in Super Bowl play, though the under is 5-2 the last six years. Enjoy the big game!
 

Jim Feist
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