New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) 3:00 PM EST Denver Broncos Premium Pick Bovada Play Title: Afc Championship Play Selected: Money Line: -220 Click to View Analysis Analysis: The Broncos clearly didn't bring their "A" game last week. In fact, they turned the ball over 2 times to San Diego's none (a rare -2 TO ratio) but still won by 7 points! That speaks louder than words. I expect Manning to shine here. New England won over the Colts by 21 but won the turnover war by a gigantic 4-0. Yes, New England's LeGarrette Blount is running like a bull. However, he's only faced mediocre defenses like Indianapolis and Buffalo consecutively. Denver has stopped the run all year keeping their opponents' rushing average @ under 4 yards per rush. Remember, in their previous meeting the rushing stats showed a final tally of Denver 280, New England 116! Another comforting thought has seen 7 of the last 8 Afc Championship favorites of less than 6 cash at the window. The Patriots struggled against the weak offense of the Jets nearly losing both contests. The Broncos have far too many weapons to lose another shootout with Tom Brady & Bill Belichick again. look for DC Jack Del Rio to make the New England offense one-dimensional. Forget past matchups because all game personnel have changed for this one in Denver's favor. Look for the upper brass with John Elway to find success in Year 2 with Manning at the helm. My bottom line says the Patriots are just 2-6 ATS on the road this season plus an alarming 1-4 SU versus teams @ .500 or better. Seriously, is that the recipe of a Super Bowl team? You can live in the past buy I clearly sayeth not! In my 40 years of handicapping, teams missing many key personnel (New England) may not show it in earlier rounds but in championship rounds they surely will. I'm going to Invesco Field @ Mile High and grabbing the Broncos for the "W" for 70% of the play with 30% ATS @ -4. Mike Handzelek - Las Vegas Hilton World Champ Handicapper - Handicapping With A Chuck Strong Attitude & A Take No Prisoners Mentality!
 

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