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Home / Articles / NFL Blowouts and Parity

NFL Blowouts and Parity

By: Jim Feist     Date: Nov 15, 2013
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by Jim Feist For years, pro football has been the sports leader when it comes to parity. Pete Rozelle was credited with, "On any given Sunday any team can beat another." The last few years it seems as though parity has disappeared from the NFL. The Broncos are having a dominant season, like the Packers in 2011, the 2008 Saints and Colts started a combined 16-0 SU/11-5 ATS and the 2007 Patriots had a remarkable 16-0 regular season. A close look, however, shows that parity is alive and well. The Broncos may be sizzling, but they squeaked by the Cowboys (51-48) and lost at Indy (39-33). The 2011 Packers may have started 8-0, but they had a 5 point win over Minnesota, gave up 38 points in a close win over San Diego, along with 7 and 8 points wins over Carolina and New Orleans. In 2008 four wins by the Colts were by 4 points or less, while the 2007 Patriots were just as lucky as they were good. What New England did in 2007 was unique, but let's not forget that they were fortunate to run the regular season table. They had wins over the Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Giants by 4, 3, 3 and 3 points. Counting the playoffs, the Patriots went 2-9 against the spread their final 11 games. They were double digit favorites in their final ten and went 2-8 ATS. If you doubt parity, look at these 2013 Chiefs – from worst to first (so far)! Meanwhile, the Giants went from winning the title two years ago to a miserable 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS start. And does anyone want to win the NFC East this season? The team that won the Super Bowl three years ago, Green Bay, was fortunate to even make the playoffs. This season the Chargers, Chiefs and Panthers have been better than expected, while the Falcons, Giants and Redskins (the latter last year’s division champs) have flopped. Injuries have been a huge factor this season, turning NFL teams into MASH units while taxing depth and roster spots. The Texans, Bills, Patriots, Bears and Rams have stumbled in many ways because of a slew of key injuries. Peyton Manning is having a record season, but one injury to a star QB can change everything. Just ask…Peyton Manning. Manning didn’t even play his last season in Indianapolis and the team went from perennial AFC powerhouse to the top pick in the NFL draft. Injuries are the most obvious factor in leveling the playing field, turning powerhouse teams on paper into paper tigers. Four years ago defending AFC East champion Miami Dolphins lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the year. In 2009, QBs Brett Favre and Tony Romo were hit with injuries. In 2008, reigning MVP Tom Brady was lost for the season in the opening minute of the first game, completely changing the AFC picture. There's an old wagering adage about going against pro football teams who roll by 20 points in back-to-back games. That's not easy to do. If a pro team beats another by 20-plus points in consecutive weeks, it can be a good time to look at the other side, as the club off two blowout wins can be overvalued. In order to win by that kind of margin in consecutive games, a team has to play close to two perfect games back-to-back. In this day of parity, that takes a rare combination of talent, execution, health and luck. You may recall how bad the Chiefs started in 2011. Kansas City opened the season with back-to-back colossal stinkers, losing 41-7 and 48-3. They were a +16 dog the next game, but a very different team showed up in a 20-17 loss at San Diego, an easy cover. A year before the Jaguars got routed by the Chargers (38-13) and Eagles (28-3), then as a +7 dog beat the Colts, 31-28. In 2009 after losing road games by 23 and 37 points, the Raiders stumbled home and not only covered, but beat the Eagles as 14-point dogs, 13-9. That same season the Browns lost back-to-back games by 20+ in Weeks 2 and 3, then got the cover against the Bengals as a +6 home dog. After losing by 35 and 28, the Rams got the cover in a 23-20 loss at Jacksonville as a +9 dog. It is hard to wipe out a pro team by 3 TDs three games in a row. It might not seem like it at times, but this is parity at work, with salary caps and free agency making it difficult for teams to simply buy players to shore up weak areas, as is the case in baseball. Even ugly Jacksonville covered as a +26 dog against Denver! In football, if you pay a lot to get or retain a key player, you may lose a star in another area. Overall, you rarely see pro teams keep up 20-point or more dominance for more than two games.
 


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