Sunday, February 03, 2013 Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 6:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 47.5/-101 Over Pick Title: 10 STAR Super Bowl HOT SPOT Win Both coaches know the tendencies about to hit them entering Super Bowl Sunday like it was their right arm. However, each will also leave a vulnerable part of their defense open for attack. That's a big reason why the OVER comes in here. The Baltimore defense of DC Dean Pees will be borrowing a page out of the Atlanta and St. Louis playbooks (teams laying the blueprints) to try and contain the 49ers excellent running QB Colin Kaepernick from running outside. The problem exists when Baltimore tries to attack from the edges (leaving the middle open) while containing receivers doing intermediate plus routes. Frank Gore and the San Francisco ground game will be able to sustain more than a few drives with the middle left more vulnerable. On the same token, I think Baltimore QB Joe Flacco has enough senior leadership (best QB on the road for a playoff game) to strong arm passes to the open areas while under pressure. San Francisco DC Vic Fangio is from my backyard and talked with my radio station earlier this week. He told us he expects a war but also realizes the talent on both offenses can realistically become overwhelming by games end. Reading between the lines, he feels the exhaustion theory (2nd half) will actually give way to some points (contradicting what your eyes saw last game from both) leading us to OVER heaven. Remember, San Francisco has given up droves of yards the past 5 games and looks far from what they looked like in early season. My bottom line says with Aldon Smith not even close to 100% & the Baltimore defense allowing New England into the red zone six separate times, I feel 2 weeks of preparation time is more than enough time for these offenses to have an excellent plan of attack. There will be periods of up-tempo for San Francisco combining with Baltimore OC Jim Caldwell unleashing a more aggressive gameplan. The experienced Flacco on a pass-first team pushes the OVER more in our favor. Grab the OVER in the Super Bowl for a BIG 10 STAR Play. Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 6:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.0/-110 Baltimore Ravens Pick Title: Super Bowl ATS Winner With 10 Prop Sure Shots Win This should be a classic matchup that begins the era of the so-coined "Harbowl" with a great chance of that excellent storyline continuing. Yes, the 49ers have the more likeable and cozy "West Coast Flair", but the Ravens have the greater emotional investment in giving their unjustified "Deer Leader" and obstructer of justice one more chance at showing his loyal fans one last victory promenade. The 17-year veteran and former Hurricanes' LB Ray Lewis gets the Ravens up like nobody has before. The amazing contrast can be pointed out in their won-loss record. The Ravens may be just 13-6 overall but are a RED HOT 8-1 with Lewis on the sidelines this season. The Baltimore advantage goes much deeper than Lewis. You have to include a head-strong QB that is lights-out in playoff games on the road passing every HOF'er in Joe Flacco. This rocket-armed quarterback from Audubon, N.J. (close to Philadelphia) comes from a family of six proven winners. His brother John should see action as a junior Stanford receiver this year while his brother Thomas is drawing big QB attention from Division I scouts as he finishes his senior year at Eastern High School in Voorhees Township. Flacco will not only have a motivated WR in Torrey Smith (22 yards per catch in playoffs) at his disposal but also receive heavy contributions from Jacoby Jones (22.8 YPC) and Anquan Boldin (17.3 YPC) to stretch the 49er secondary. Remember, Delaware Joe has already beaten 2 HOF QB's in Manning and Brady back-to-back. The brilliant move of promoting Jim Caldwell to OC has paid big dividends as his aggressive play-calling has uncovered the true talents of Flacco and his receivers. San Francisco will also move the ball too. With Terrell Suggs and his band of thugs led by Haloti Ngata attacking from the edges to keep Kaepernick inside the pocket, that will open up the middle for Frank Gore to reel off some 6-10 yard gains while hitting Vernon Davis in some crossing patterns. In the numbers, San Francisco has given up at least 24 points in four of the last five contests. Additionally, Super Bowl favorites between -3 and - 4 1/2 have gone a ticket-ripping 4-7 S/U & ATS since 1981. The underdog has also window-cashed 8 of the last 11 SB's and 4 of the last 5 ATS. My bottom line says both of these teams will be able to move the ball. However, the difference will be the Baltimore secondary (Ed Reed & Co.) baiting Kaepernick into making more mistakes which will give the Ravens a "W". The kicking game always plays a key role in close games giving the Ravens an advantage. From 40 yards and beyond, Baltimore K Justin Tucker is 14-for-17 (4-for-4 from 50+) while SF's David Akers was 9-for-19 from that range (just 2 of 6 from 50+). My early Super Bowl line has Baltimore -3. My line reflects the outcome without looking at power ratings or equal action. For Super Bowl XLVII, my selection says Art Modell will get one final salute as I have an 8 STAR play on Baltimore +4 but don't forget to put 20% of your pasta on the ML. Ravens 30-28. My Prop Sure Shots--Joe Flacco to throw OVER 1.5 TD's -110--Joe Flacco to rush OVER 4.5 rushing yards -110--Yes on Vernon Davis scoring a TD -110--combo on Vernon Davis at 12-1 and Torrey Smith at 10-1 to score the first TD--Longest FG Ravens -110--Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco at 2-1 -110--Vernon Davis OVER 50 1/2 receiving yards -110--Colin Kaepernick Over 1/2 Interceptions -110--No safety -1500--Baltimore LB Paul Kruger OVER 3 tackles -110. NOTE: For props, play close to even money plays larger. Play favorites of -300 or higher or underdogs of +300 or higher between $10 & $15. Rule of thumb -- A big favorite loss should always be more than made up by 2 close to even wins. Writing & Handicapping Games With A Chuck Strong Attitude! Mike Handzelek
 

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