by Jim Feist
Baseball has a long regular season, almost twice as many games as pro basketball, and ten times more games than the NFL regular season. Baseball athletes have to play just about every day and sometimes even have to play twice in a day during double-headers. This is why it's essential to keep up on injuries. In football, if a starting quarterback or star running back is injured and expected to miss a game, that injury will be reflected in the betting line.
The Broncos with QB Peyton Manning might be a 10-point home favorite over a below-average team, but without Manning they might be only a 3-point favorite - or a big dog, as we saw three seasons ago with him on the shelf. The same is true if NBA stars like Russell Westbrook, Kobe Bryant and LeBron James are out.
The bulk of baseball lines are based on the starting pitchers. Sides and totals will be adjusted a bit when star players are out of the lineup, but not to the extent that football lines often move. For bettors, sometimes the loss of one or two important positional players can be a large enough void that it offers great value to wager against a team.
This season in the AL East the Yankees and Rays have been hit hard by injuries. Last week the Rays had another injury to All-Star second baseman Ben Zobrist (dislocated thumb). They also have been scrambling to find effective pieces for a volatile bullpen. Speaking of pitching, the Yankees continue to hover around .500 because of a starting staff ravaged by injuries to Mike Pineda, C.C. Sabathia and Ivan Nova.
A year ago at this time it was the Dodgers and Angels getting smacked around with major injuries to the staff. The Angels lost ace Jared Weaver early on and it had a domino effect on the rest of the staff, plummeting to third-worst in the American League as the bullpen got taxed and all the other starters had to move up a notch. The Dodgers couldn’t find a reliable No. 4 or 5 starter and the offense was banged up, falling to 29th in runs. It took a while for the Dodgers to get healthy and they roared down the stretch winning the division.
Injuries and returning players can be significant. Boston righty Clay Buchholz started 9-0 a year ago, then went on the shelf for three months with various injuries. Since coming back late last season he really hasn’t been the same pitcher. The team starts 3-5 in his first 8 starts this season giving up 6 runs three times.
A few seasons ago, the Red Sox got off to a hot 24-8 start, but lost star slugger Manny Ramirez in mid-May when he broke his finger in Seattle on a foolish home plate flop. He was hitting .372 when he got hurt, went on the DL for a month and the team proceeded to go 7-6 on a home stand without him. They scored one run to the Mariners and were shut out twice at home by the White Sox and Athletics.
The Red Sox were favored in five of those six home losses, including as a -150 favorite once and a -140 favorite twice. If a team has a capable replacement to fill in, it may be able to survive an injury, but still might be overvalued by oddsmakers, who lean heavily on overall and home/away records. Also, a team's offensive production can suffer, too, which can be an edge for totals players.
One season injuries to key players devastated the Minnesota Twins pennant-express. The Twins were 55-32 at the All-Star break and were winning with a great combination of speed, defense and starting pitching. Then injuries severely dented the team's speed and defense. Minnesota went 30-45 in the second-half and missed the playoffs. Big payroll teams have depth on the bench, but small market teams like the Twins and Rays often can’t afford it.
So pay close attention to whether a team is at full strength or not, either through injuries or other factors. Many times oddsmakers fail to make proper adjustments, which can provide great value in taking a look at underdogs. Keep your eyes peeled for key injuries, bad lines and big dogs.
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