With the year round college basketball analysis on television, the speculation about which teams are on the bubble starts even before conference play kicks off. Numerous experts have lists of teams which need to finish strong in order to get into the big dance. Let’s take a look at the real bubble teams. The following teams will arguably be battling for about 15 at-large spots after the strongest teams are selected and automatic bids are given out. Dayton, Rhode Island, Temple, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami, Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Providence, Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, UAB, Tulsa, Houston, Illinois State, Utah, BYU, UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, Arizona, USC, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, Auburn, and St. Mary’s. About half of these teams will make it into the tournament. We can eliminate Rhode Island, Temple, Illinois State, Tulsa, and Houston from this list. Those teams don’t have strong non-conference wins, and they haven’t been dominant against conference opponents. St. Mary’s will get to beat up on weaker conference opponents, so their final record will be good enough to get in without winning the WCC title. Arizona, USC, UNLV, Dayton and Texas all have wins against strong competition and will finish the season with enough victories to get them in. Essentially teams from the ACC, Big East, Big 12, and SEC will take up the final 10-12 spots. With that being said, Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, N.C. State, Miami, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Cincinnati, Providence, Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan, South Carolina Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Auburn will be the last teams vying for at-large bids. However, teams like N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Auburn, Mississippi State, Cincinnati, and Providence will need very strong finishes to get an invitation. Boston College, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee are in position to get the remaining at-large bids and are the true bubble teams. These teams have wins against the best teams in their conference and/or a good strength of schedule ranking. Smaller conferences like the Missouri Valley, Conference USA, Colonial Athletic Association, and Mountain West will get less at-large bids than in the past few years. The BCS conferences have too much parody, and as a result they will get more of the last tournament spots. In addition, the mid-major conferences don’t have as many strong teams as in previous seasons. Look for Boston College, Notre Dame, Kansas State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee to get the final tournament spots.
 

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