East Region

The East held form in the top half of the bracket with #1 Syracuse and #4 Wisconsin advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. From the bottom half, #2 Ohio State is still alive with #6 Cincinnati rounding out the group. There were no upsets in the East in the first eight games played as the higher seed won every game. And we only saw one upset in the Round of 32 when #6 Cincinnati beat #3 Florida State 62-56 as a 2-point underdog. However, of the top seeds, only Wisconsin made it through with a perfect 2-0 ATS record as Syracuse and Ohio State both went 1-1 ATS last week.

Ohio State is a solid 8-point favorite over Cincinnati on Thursday night, but the Bearcats have been on a terrific pointspread run since the second week of February as they are 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games, including a 4-2 ATS mark as an underdog. Syracuse is a 3½-point favorite over Wisconsin in the first game on Thursday. Unlike Cincinnati, the Orangemen are on a terrible pointspread run as Syracuse is just 5-11 ATS over their last 16 games. However, Syracuse has won 14 of those 16 games straight-up, with 9 of those wins coming by 7 points or more. Keep in mind Syracuse is now playing without their 7'0" center Fab Melo who was ruled ineligible last week before the NCAA Tournament began. Melo is only sixth on the team in scoring at 7.8 points per game, however he is a force defensively and was name the Big East Defensive Player of the Year. He also led the Orangemen in rebounding (5.8) and blocks (2.9) per game this season.

West Region

The West has three of the top four seeds remaining alive with #1 Michigan State, #3 Marquette, and #4 Louisville playing in the Sweet Sixteen. After #15 Norfolk State’s major upset of #2 Missouri as a 21-point underdog, the bottom of the bracket was wide open and #7 Florida took advantage to complete the foursome. Florida also had the easiest game in the Round of 32 as they beat Norfolk State by a whopping 34 points (84-50) as a 14-point favorite. Michigan State, Louisville, and Marquette won their games by a combined 16 points.

Both games in the West on Thursday night are projected to be close as Marquette is just a 1½-point favorite over Florida and Michigan State is just a 5-point favorite over Louisville. Favorites cashed at a 75% clip (9-3 ATS) in the first two rounds in the West Region with their average win coming by a whopping 14.9 points per game.

Midwest Region

The Midwest didn’t quite play out as the other three regions. The top two seeds, #1 North Carolina and #2 Kansas are still alive. But the #3 through #10 seeds were all eliminated which left #11 NC State and #13 Ohio as two surprise teams in the Sweet Sixteen. Kansas narrowly covered the spread against Detroit in their 85-70 win as a 14-point favorite and were never covering against Purdue as an 8-point favorite and the Jayhawks were lucky to escape with a 63-60 win as they trailed outright for the majority of that game.

North Carolina has been the most impressive team in the Midwest as the Tar Heels won their two games by 19 and 14 points, while going 2-0 ATS. However, UNC suffered a major blow on Sunday when point guard Kendall Marshall fractured his wrist against Creighton. Marshall underwent surgery on Monday and had a screw inserted in his injured wrist and his status for Friday's game versus Ohio is still uncertain. Marshall is shooting 46.7% FG this season, including 35.4% from three-point range, and most importantly he leads the Tar Heels with 351 assists, while no other player has more than 45 assists this season.

NC State and Ohio are a combined 4-0 ATS so far in the NCAA Tournament. The Wolfpack and the Bobcats are both sizeable underdogs on Friday night; NC State is +8 against Kansas, while Ohio is +10½ against North Carolina. The Wolfpack are on a perfect 7-0-1 ATS run with five of those wins coming in the role of an underdog. Ohio actually came into this tournament on a downswing as the Bobcats were on a 1-4 ATS run prior to their two pointspread covers against Michigan and South Florida.

South Region

The South mostly played to form with three of the top four seeds remaining alive in the NCAA Tournament with #1 Kentucky, #3 Baylor, and #4 Indiana all making the Sweet Sixteen. The bottom two games of the South bracket saw two upsets when #10 Xavier beat #7 Notre Dame and #15 Lehigh beat #2 Duke. Xavier completes the quartet; this will be the fourth time over the last five years in which the Musketeers have won at least two games in the NCAA tournament.

Kentucky (-9 over Indiana) and Baylor (-6 over Xavier) are both big favorites on Friday to advance to the Elite 8. After failing to cover their large 26½-point impost against overmatched Western Kentucky, the Wildcats showed their superiority with an 87-71 win over Iowa State as an 11-point favorite. Baylor is 2-0 ATS if you are a good shopper as the Bears snuck inside the number (-7½) with a 68-60 win over South Dakota State. Next, they blew out Colorado by 17 points (80-63) also as a 7½-point favorite. Xavier is 2-0 ATS so far, while Indiana is 1-1 ATS. Overall, underdogs hold a slight edge in the South going 7-5 ATS with five outright wins so far.

Kentucky remains a heavy favorite to win the NCAA Tournament with a 30% chance based on their true mathematical odds, followed by Ohio State at 14%, and North Carolina at 11%.

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