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Home / Articles / Steve Merril's National League Preview

Steve Merril's National League Preview

By: Steve Merril     Date: Apr 6, 2013
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Atlanta Braves

Why bet the Braves: There weren't many pitchers better than Kris Medlen towards the end of last season when he went 9-0 with a 0.97 ERA in 12 starts once he joined the starting rotation. Craig Kimbrel is the best closer in the National League with excellent control, walking just 14 batters in 62.2 innings of work last year. He is backed by Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters who shut down left-handed hitters. The batting lineup added the Upton brothers, B.J. and Justin, who will make this lineup deeper and harder to navigate for opponents.

Why not bet the Braves: There are some question marks in the pitching rotation. Tim Hudson is getting older and Paul Maholm can be inconsistent. The Uptons were made available by their respective teams because they didn't live up to their potential. Brian McCann and Dan Uggla had career-low batting averages last season with health being an issue for the catcher. Freddie Freeman also saw a dip in his batting average.

Season win total pick: Under 87.5

Miami Marlins

Why bet the Marlins: Eventually the youngsters on this team will get better and play up to their expectations. Giancarlo Stanton is a fantastic hitter who will send home runs into the stands if opposing pitchers aren't careful. Steve Cishek only blew one save as a closer last season.

Why not bet the Marlins: The rotation is a joke, led by Ricky Nolasco who isn't No. 1 material. He is backed by Henderson Alvarez who struggled and gave up 216 hits last year with the Blue Jays. Also in the rotation is Nate Eovaldi, Jacob Turner, and maybe Wade LeBlanc among others. Stanton has no protection in the batting lineup and will get frustrated at the lack of quality pitches he receives due to the lack of runners on base in front of him. Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco would be good additions to a team in 2000...not 2013.

Season win total pick: Under 63.5

New York Mets

Why bet the Mets: They get to play 18 games against a terrible Marlins' squad. David Wright is building good momentum from his stellar WBC play. Johan Santana can be dominant when healthy. Jon Niese had a 3.40 ERA last season and will be tough on hitters. Matt Harvey is here for a whole season after striking out 70 hitters in just under 60 innings of work last year.

Why not bet the Mets: Their bullpen is still pretty bad. Frank Francisco had an awful 5.53 ERA in 48 relief appearances last season and he is backed by multiple no-name pitchers who struggled in the bullpen last year. The rest of the offensive lineup outside of David Wright will need to step up. Johan Santana's health is an issue as he continues to battle a shoulder problem and has made only 21 starts the past two seasons. Dillon Gee, Jeremy Hefner, and Collin McHugh are all below average and are competing for the back end of the pitching rotation.

Season win total pick: Under 75

Philadelphia Phillies

Why bet the Phillies: Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will hopefully have full seasons for Philadelphia and will be eager to prove last year was a fluke. Ben Revere was a nice pickup to replace Shane Victorino in the lineup. Michael Young brings a solid veteran presence to the team as well. The rotation still features Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels. Mike Adams will be a good setup man for Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen.

Why not bet the Phillies: The bottom of the starting rotation is suspect with John Lannan and Kyle Kendrick. There is some concern about Halladay's velocity which was down in spring training. Howard and Utley are injury prone and might once again miss games. They will be without Carlos Ruiz for the first 25 games due to a drug suspension. Domonic Brown and John Mayberry will play the other two outfield spots and both players are mediocre at best.

Season win total pick: Over 84

Washington Nationals

Why bet the Nationals: The top of the batting order is now stronger with the addition of Denard Span as the leadoff hitter. Bryce Harper should continue to improve after hitting 22 home runs as a 19-year-old rookie last year. The pitching rotation will have Stephen Strasburg all season long and he's backed by Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann. The already deep bullpen added Rafael Soriano who will close games. If he struggles, they have Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard to back him up.

Why not bet the Nationals: Can Adam LaRoche continue his hot play? Will Ryan Zimmerman stay healthy? The catcher position is weak with Wilson Ramos and Kurt Suzuki. Dan Haren came over to be the No. 4 starter, but he threw a ton of pitches and showed some wear and tear last year with a 4.33 ERA with the Angels. The bullpen has talent, but will everyone get along and mesh into their roles?

Season win total pick: Under 92

Chicago Cubs

Why bet the Cubs: Starlin Castro is an up and coming talent with Anthony Rizzo backing him in the lineup. Darwin Barney is a capable No. 2 hitter and is a gold glove fielder. Jeff Samardzija has talent along with Matt Garza if both can stay healthy. Edwin Jackson is a decent No. 3 pitcher with veteran experience.

Why not bet the Cubs: 14 different pitchers had a 5.00 ERA or worse last year. Only one regular offensive player batted .300 or better and that was Reed Johnson who is now gone. Shortstop Starlin Castro had 27 errors which is an issue in the field at such a high impact position. Carlos Marmol is inconsistent as a closer and will cost Chicago some games in the late innings.

Season win total pick: Under 72.5

Cincinnati Reds

Why bet the Reds: Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips lead a solid lineup from top to bottom that should improve with the addition of Shin-Soo Choo. Ryan Ludwick hit over .300 in his last 80 games and seems to fit nicely in a group that needed a little more power. The rotation features plenty of power arms in Jonny Cueto, Mat Latos, and Homer Bailey. It gets even more power with the addition of Aroldis Chapman. Sean Marshall and Jose Arredondo provide solid relief in the bullpen.

Why not bet the Reds: Chapman's conversion from closer to starter is still a work in progress. It also means Jonathan Broxton will have to become the Reds' closer. Broxton lives and dies with his fastball which has caused him issues in the past. The bench isn't very deep, so injuries to this lineup will be problematic. Votto and Phillips must remain healthy for this offense to be potent.

Season win total pick: Over 91

Milwaukee Brewers

Why bet the Brewers: Ryan Braun is the only player in baseball with 100+ runs and 100+ RBI in each of the last four seasons. Jean Segura could stabilize the shortstop position after hitting .329 in his last 22 games. Yovani Gallardo is an underrated ace with at least 200+ strikeouts in four straight years. The rest of the rotation is filled with potential in Mike Fiers, Wily Peralta, and Marco Estrada.

Why not bet the Brewers: John Axford struggled as the team's closer with a 5-8 record and a 4.67 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 75 appearances last year. Chris Narveson and Marco Estrada are injury prone. The bench is suspect as Mat Gamel has not lived up to his potential. Aramis Ramirez, Corey Hart, and Rickie Weeks are inconsistent. Weeks and Ramirez both struggled at the beginning of the season last year.

Season win total pick: Under 81

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why bet the Pirates: This young lineup should continue to improve and get better each season. Andrew McCutchen is a duel offensive threat with his speed and power. Three Pirates hit at least 25+ home runs last seasons with Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones joining McCutchen. The team ERA was under 4.00 for the first time since 1998. They acquired Wandy Rodriguez in the middle of last season and he brings experience to the starting rotation.

Why not bet the Pirates: The team finished just 16-36 in their last 52 games of the 2012 season. The bottom part of the pitching rotation is a problem. James McDonald could be the ace of the staff, but he also pitched like a rookie at times last season. The bullpen lost Joel Hanrahan who was a stabilizing force and is now depending upon Mark Melancon and Jason Grilli to lock things down.

Season win total pick: Over 77

St. Louis Cardinals

Why bet the Cardinals: A solid offensive lineup returns. Allen Craig ranked 7th in the National League in batting average and slugging. Matt Holliday had a team high 102 RBI with Jon Jay hitting over .300 as a leadoff hitter. The bench got stronger with the addition of utility man Ty Wigginton. Adam Wainwright will be back for a full season after elbow surgery last year and is joined by Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn in the pitching rotation. Shelby Miller is waiting in the wings as well.

Why not bet the Cardinals: While there is talent in the starting rotation, there is also some uncertainty. Jaime Garcia was inconsistent away from home with some terrible numbers on the road last year. Lance Lynn's stamina faltered at the end of the season and Jake Westbrook's ERA has been 4.65 or worse in two of the past three years. Offensively, health could become a problem with Holliday, Rafael Furcal, and potentially Carlos Beltran.

Season win total pick: Over 86

Arizona Diamondbacks

Why bet the Diamondbacks: The rotation is back and even better with the addition of Brandon McCarthy. Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, and Wade Miley were solid last year with a combined 94 starts and all three return for the D-Backs. They added Martin Prado to a lineup that was in need of some re-tooling. Aaron Hill will enjoy the bigger gaps in a hitter's park after putting up 76 extra base hits last year. The bullpen is a strength with JJ Putz pitching well as the closer.

Why not bet the Diamondbacks: The lineup may be weaker with the departure of Justin Upton. The last spot of the pitching rotation is a question mark with Patrick Corbin, Tyler Skaggs and possibly Josh Collmenter fighting for it. Heath Bell struggled with Miami last season and Arizona's bench is not deep, so injuries could become an issue.

Season win total pick: Under 82.5

Colorado Rockies

Why bet the Rockies: The lineup plays well at home in the thin air and altitude where they are capable of scoring runs. Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Todd Helton are back, and if healthy, will still be a potent part of this lineup. The team is scrapping the pitch limit for the starters which should help them focus and also take pressure off the bullpen. When healthy, Jhoulys Chacin and Jorge De La Rosa are solid pitchers.

Why not bet the Rockies: Health is a major issue for this team. Helton is a year older and Tulo is always a threat for a trip to the disabled list. Nicasio, De La Rosa, and Chacin were all injured at some point last season, so their health remains a concern. Jeff Francis and Drew Pomeranz round out the rotation and neither were good last year. The bullpen is filled with relative no-names and could struggle this season in new roles.

Season win total pick: Under 71.5

Los Angeles Dodgers

Why bet the Dodgers: The lineup is fierce with Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Adrian Gonzalez. When Carl Crawford is ready, he will add another dimension of speed and contact to the group. The rotation features two of the best pitchers in baseball with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke at the top. Watch out for Hyun-Jin Ryu who led the Korean Baseball Organization in strikeouts five times. A lot of power arms in the bullpen.

Why not bet the Dodgers: The offensive lineup struggled at times last season. Chad Billingsley and Josh Beckett round out the pitching rotation and both are very inconsistent. Crawford's health will be an issue, along with Kemp and Billingsley. There has been a lot of money spent on this roster which sometimes leads to underperformance.

Season win total pick: Under 91.5

San Diego Padres

Why bet the Padres: The fences are going to be brought in closer at Petco Park which should benefit this offensive lineup and help the power numbers for Chase Headley, Carlos Quentin, and Yonder Alonso. Clayton Richard is a fantastic pitcher at home. The bullpen is still a strength with Huston Street and Luke Gregorson.

Why not bet the Padres: The back end of the rotation is weak with Jason Marquis, Eric Stults, and potentially Anthony Bass. The Padres' offensive lineup is still a major question mark, especially with Yasmani Grandal out for the first 50 games of the season. The bench is weak and lacks power.

Season win total pick: Over 74.5

San Francisco Giants

Why bet the Giants: Pitching is stellar as usual with Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong anchoring the starting rotation. Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez are fantastic in the bullpen as well. The offensive lineup will have a full season of Hunter Pence and Buster Posey which should lead to better results.

Why not bet the Giants: How will Tim Lincecum be this season? He was weak as a starter, but was effective out of the bullpen. The offensive lineup struggled scoring runs at times last year. The team also has the pressure of being the defending World Series champions. How will they handle the expectations and will there be a letdown?

Season win total pick: Over 88


 

 
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