ACC:
North Carolina headed into the ACC tournament as the #1 seed in Atlanta. North Carolina was mightily impressive in their final regular season game as they went into Cameron Indoor and waxed Duke 88-70. The Tar Heels closed as a 2-point road favorite in that game as heavy money came in on UNC. In the first meeting, North Carolina thoroughly out-played Duke, but the Blue Devils made the big three on the final shot of the game. North Carolina’s win at Duke also improved their road to the title game as they avoided the bracket with Florida State, a team that beat them by 33 points (90-57) earlier this year. The Tar Heels have been pointspread machines down the stretch as they enter Saturday's semi-final matchup versus NC State on a 7-1 ATS run and winning by more than 15 points per game.
BIG 10:
Michigan State is the top seed in the Big 10 conference tournament, despite sharing the regular season title and losing their last two games straight-up. The Spartans lost at Indiana and at home to Ohio State to close out the regular season, but their biggest loss could be freshman Branden Dawson to a season-ending knee injury. Dawson didn’t average big offensive numbers (8.4 points and 4.5 rebounds per game), but he was the Spartans’ best defensive player that did all of the little things right. “We'll miss the body,” head coach Tom Izzo said when asked about losing Dawson. But Izzo is still confident that his team can be successful: “I still think this team has a chance to make a strong run in both tournaments,” Izzo said. “But there’s no question we’ll be hindered some by the lack of a guy who was our best defensive player.” Michigan State went just 1-3 ATS over their last four regular season games after covering the pointspread in 7 of their previous 8 games.
BIG 12:
Baylor is the #4 seed in the Big 12 conference tournament being held at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. The Bears went 25-6 SU in the regular season with all six of their losses coming in conference play. Those losses came to just four teams: Kansas (twice), Missouri (twice), Kansas State, and Iowa State who have a combined record of 96-27 SU. Baylor did get some revenge with an upset win versus Kansas on Friday night and the Bears will get another chance at revenge in the championship game on Saturday versus Missouri. Baylor is an extremely talented team, but they have a suspect head coach in Scott Drew who always seems to get out-coached, while lacking adequate in-game adjustments. Despite their talent, Baylor was a disaster against the pointspread in regular season conference play this season. The Bears went just 6-11 ATS, including 1-3 ATS as a road favorite. Baylor went 2-3 ATS in conference as an underdog, and overall they were 4-3 ATS when getting points with their other two wins coming out of conference against Northwestern and BYU.
BIG EAST:
Syracuse (31-2 SU) was the top seed and the favorite to cut down the nets in Madison Square Garden before their upset loss on Friday night a as an 8-point favorite versus Cincinnati. Aside from the 'Cuse, there are five other teams in the league that played good basketball this season: Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Cincinnati, and Louisville. Syracuse did go 5-2 SU against those teams, but their five wins came by just 9, 7, 7, 3, and 1 point margins. To compare, Syracuse’s 12 other conference wins came by an average of 14 points per game. So it’s clear that Syracuse handles the bad teams with ease, but they struggle when facing the better teams. After covering the spread in their first three conference games, Syracuse went just 6-11 ATS over their final 17 games, including a 2-6 ATS mark away from home.
PAC 12:
California was the #2 seed in the Pac 12 tournament being played at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. The Golden Bears (24-9 SU) were probably the Pac 12’s best overall team, but they played much better at home (17-1 SU) than they did on the road (6-7 SU), and California was upset in the semi-finals on Friday night and lost 70-59 as a 6-point favorite versus Colorado. California did not sweep a road trip outside of their home state all season. They had a tough schedule to close the season as they ended with three consecutive road games and two neutral court games, so their 1-4 ATS mark to finish conference play isn’t as bad as it looks. Prior to that, California was 4-1 ATS in their previous five games.
SEC:
Kentucky is the most talented team in the country and has been all season long. The Wildcats did not disappoint this season as they are currently 31-1 SU heading into Saturday's game versus Florida with their only loss coming by a single point (73-72) at Indiana way back in early December. Kentucky is currently a perfect 17-0 SU in conference play and they are an overwhelming favorite to win the SEC tournament. Kentucky has been favored by double digits in 12 of their 18 conference games this season. In the five games in which they were favored by single digits, the Wildcats went just 3-2 ATS with Saturday's result against Florida pending.
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