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Home / Articles / Steve Merril's NBA Central Division Preview

Steve Merril's NBA Central Division Preview

By: Steve Merril     Date: Oct 18, 2012
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Chicago Bulls (2011-12: 50-16 SU, 38-27-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: -190

Season win total: 47.5

Why bet the Bulls: Chicago will enter the season as a forgotten commodity. With Derrick Rose’s ACL injury sidelining him until at least February, the Bulls have low expectations this season. But head coach Tom Thibodeau is terrific and the Bulls have won without Rose in the past. They will rely on their strong defense to win games this season.

Why not bet the Bulls: Bench. Chicago’s second unit is a work in progress. The Bulls had a cohesive bench over the last couple of years in which five guys would play together for 15 minutes per game. This year’s version is a mishmash unit and it’s likely the Bulls will only play an eight or nine-man rotation.

Season win total pick: Over 47.5

Cleveland Cavaliers (2011-12: 21-45 SU, 31-35-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +5,000

Season win total: 32.5

Why bet the Cavaliers: Cleveland has one of the future stars of the NBA on their team in Kyrie Irving. The kid (he’s only 21 years old) is exciting and a bona fide superstar in the making. He can carry this team to some surprising wins on his own and as long as he’s on the court, the Cavaliers have a shot to win.

Why not bet the Cavaliers: Youth. The Cavaliers are a young and inexperienced team that will need time to develop. Their core talent is either in their second-year guys or rookies, and all of them are 25 years old or younger. Cleveland’s defense was bad last season and with all of its youth, don’t expect it to be much better.

Season win total pick: Under 32.5

Detroit Pistons (2011-12: 25-41 SU, 32-33-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +5,000

Season win total: 32.5

Why bet the Pistons: Detroit played much better basketball than its 25-41 record indicates. Remember, the Pistons started the season at 5-20 which means they went 20-21 the rest of the way. It took time for them to gel and with a full training camp, we expect more consistency from the start.

Why not bet the Pistons: Defense. Head coach Lawrence Frank will get the Pistons better on that end of the floor and Andre Drummond will certainly help. But young and talented offensive players don’t like to guard and it will take Frank some time to get the Pistons to defend game in and game out.

Season win total pick: Over 32.5

Indiana Pacers (2011-12: 42-24 SU, 32-34-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +130

Season win total: 51.5

Why bet the Pacers: Indiana is a young team on the rise. The Pacers won 42 games last season and they should improve off that success. Indiana has a wealth of talent on its roster and it goes beyond just the starting five. The Pacers flew under the radar last season and the same thing may happen this season simply because they don’t have big-name players.

Why not bet the Pacers: Matchups. Indiana has one defensive weakness and that is the fact it can’t defend athletic forwards. The Pacers are too slow-footed down low to contend with quick big men and against particular teams, Indiana is simply overmatched.

Season win total pick: Under 51.5

Milwaukee Bucks (2011-12: 31-35 SU, 29-37-0 ATS)

Odds to win division: +2,800

Season win total: 36.5

Why bet the Bucks: This is Milwaukee’s make-or-break season. The Bucks have finished just out of the playoffs the last two years and it’s time for them to finish in the Top 8. Their offense took off when they acquired Monta Ellis and they should be even better this season.

Why not bet the Bucks: Pressure. Milwaukee has to win this year or else major changes will be on the horizon. Head coach Scott Skiles is in the final year of his contract and Brandon Jennings will be entering that territory next season. Their defense slipped big time and if they want to be contenders, they must fix that weakness as well.

Season win total pick: Over 36.5


 

 
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