The Shell Houston Open takes center stage this week back in its familiar spot the week before the Masters after preceding the first Major by two weeks two years ago. Taking place at the Golf Club of Houston in Humble, Texas, this is the final tuneup before players head to Augusta next week and the field is again a strong one. Last week at the Valero Texas Open, we won with Jimmy Walker who became the first multi-tournament winner this year and won for the fifth time the last two seasons.
The Golf Club of Houston, formerly known as Redstone Golf Club, has hosted this event since 2003 and three years ago, it yielded the lowest scoring average in the history of the event. Two years ago, it was not as easy but still resulted in an overall average of 0.13 strokes under par, the fourth straight year it came in under par. Last year, it held true to form as only 23 of the 76 players making the cut finished over par. The rough is light and banks around greens and water hazards are shaved, creating many of the same tight, quick conditions you get at Augusta.
Scrambling from the rough was a challenge in 2014 as players got up and down just over 37 percent of the time. It marked the sixth straight year that the Golf Club of Houston ranked as the hardest course in scrambling from the rough. This isn't because the rough is so difficult as much as the heavy rye overseeded fairways and bentgrass/rye combination greens are very quick and undulating. This is not going to change this year so it is once again a great test gearing up for the Masters.
As mentioned, the field this week is strong headlined by last week's winner Jimmy Walker as well as top ten players Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia and Justin Rose. In total, 14 of the top 30 in the OWGR are playing this week. Other notables include Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson. Spieth is the short favorite at +725 with Walker, Kuchar and Reed coming in at +1,300, +1,600 and +1,700 respectively.
Matt Kuchar (+1,600) has been average over his last four starts with a T15 being his best finish but the good news is that it came last week. He has not missed a cut since last May and since then he has four top fives. If anyone is overdue for a win, it is him and why not here considering in three starts since 2010, he has not finished outside the top ten. This includes a playoff loss last year on a Matt Jones chip in.
J.B. Holmes (+2,600) took last week off after missing the cut at Bay Hill and the rest should do him good. He is having a solid season with a pair of runner up finishes at the Farmers and the Cadillac Championship to go along with another top ten at Pebble Beach. After missing the cut here in 2007, he lost in a playoff in 2009 to Paul Casey and has finished T8 and T12 in his two other starts here since then.
We will take a stab with Phil Mickelson (+3,000) even though he has not been up to his true form this season. His best finish is a T17 at the Honda Classic and he is coming off a T30 last week no thanks to a Sunday 76. He is one of four players in the field this week that has made the cut each of the last five years here and he has the best finishing average at just over 13th. He won here in 2011.
We had Jason Kokrak (+4,500) last week and while he never really challenged the leaders, he once again played solid, consistent golf with a T11 finish. That backed up a T7 and a T6 in his previous two starts and despite never having won, he looks like he will break out sometime soon. While he did miss the cut here last year, he finished solo ninth in 2013 so this could be the breakthrough place.
While Mickelson has the best finishing average the last five years, Cameron Tringale (+7,000) has the best finishing average the last three years at just a tick over 9th. This includes a T8 in 2012 and a solo fourth last year. While he hasn't done anything spectacular this season, he has just one missed cut in 2015 and in those two top six finishes here, he came in with very similar form.
Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at the Shell Houston Open - All for 1 Unit
Matt Kuchar (+1,600)
J.B. Holmes (+2,600)
Phil Mickelson (+3,000)
Jason Kokrak (+4,500)
Cameron Tringale (+7,000)
2015 Record to date after 11 events: +55.5 Units
Hyundai Tournament of Champions -5 Units
Humana Challenge +24 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open +8.5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +18 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship +16 Units
Valspar Championship -5 Units
Arnold Palmer Invitational -5 Units
Valero Texas Open +19 Units
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