When it comes to MLB betting, it's all about finding the right mix of player performance, weather conditions, and hot streaks. Tonight's matchup between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants has all the ingredients for a perfect storm, with Ryan McMahon at the eye of it all.


McMahon has been on fire lately, putting up impressive numbers that make the Over 1.5 (-120) on his hits + runs + RBI a no-brainer. Over the last 10 games, he's been averaging a whopping 2.0 HRR per game, making it over that line in four of those games. And if we zoom in on the last five games, he's still trending up with an average of 1.4 HRR, clearing the 1.5 mark in two of those games.


But it's not just his recent performance that makes this bet so enticing. If we look at his season averages, McMahon has been a force at home, posting an average of 1.27 HRR in home games. Considering the Rockies are playing at home tonight, that's a crucial factor to take into account.


And let's not forget about the weather. With the wind blowing out at 15 MPH in high altitude, hitters are bound to have a field day, and McMahon is no exception. This weather situation is perfect for a guy like him, who has already proven that he thrives in home games.


Sure, his performance against San Diego hasn't been the best, averaging only 0.75 HRR in 4 games. But if there's one thing we know about baseball, it's a game of momentum. And right now, McMahon's got momentum on his side, making that past performance less relevant to tonight's game. Also, McMahon is batting .292 with 2 HR in 24 career at-bats against Darvish. Speaking of Darvish, his average fastball velocity is down 1.5 MPH from last season to 94.5 this year. His 34.5% hard-hit rate is currently at career-high levels.


Now, let's talk about the odds. At -120 for Over 1.5, it's clear that the odds-makers are feeling confident in McMahon's chances of hitting that mark. With his recent surge in performance and the favorable conditions for tonight's game, it's hard not to see this as a smart bet. His success against Darvish only adds value to this wager. It's obvious McMahon’s left-handed swing matches up great against Darvish. Keep in mind, his ERA and FIP are much higher on the road than at home. The Rockies’ lineup should be able to score some runs tonight.


With the wind blowing out at 15 MPH in high altitude and McMahon's recent hot streak, taking the Over 1.5 at -120 odds on Ryan McMahon's hits + runs + RBI is the savvy move.


My Selection: Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 (-120) hits + runs + RBI


Twitter: @JHSPORTSLINE