Ahh, the beauty of the NFL schedule. After watching defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City maul Houston in the league’s first Thursday night matchup, fans got the pillow fight also known as Miami-Jacksonville in Week 2.

Don’t look now, but Week 3’s slugfest features two of the worst offenses in the NFL - Denver and the New York Jets. No matter the teams playing, we’re always looking for value to offer for our free picks.

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The one consolation is that neither team will start the 2020 season as poorly as 2019 when both teams opened 0-4. Somebody has to win, right?

Game: Denver Broncos (0-3, 2-1 ATS) at New York Jets (0-3, 0-3 ATS)

When: 8:20 PM ET, Thursday, October 3, 2020

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Current Line: DEN -3 Total: 40

TV Coverage: NFL Network

Can’t Look Away

The train wreck that is the Jets is scoring a whopping 15 points per game. That is 31st in the NFL. The Broncos aren’t much better checking in at No. 30 with 17.5 points a game. NFL bettors might be confused by all these stats.

Both teams can point to the absence of several key players. The Broncos lost QB Drew Lock to a shoulder injury and replaced him with backup Jeff Driskel. In last week’s loss to Tampa Bay, Lock passed for just 176 yards, ran for his life, and was sacked five times.

Denver’s offensive line, normally a strength, has been horrible that past two weeks. That unit has given up 13 sacks in the past two weeks.

The Jets were missing starting wide receivers Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman as well as RB Le’Veon Bell last week. Whether the losses have anything to do with missing players, the Jets are a dumpster fire that needs put out.

Will Darnold Put it Together

In last week’s loss to the Colts, Jets QB Sam Darnold threw more touchdown passes for Indy than he did for the Jets. Darnold had two interceptions returned for scores in last week’s 36-9 loss.

Despite their shortcomings, Denver has covered the spread in two of their three games this season. The Broncos are actually 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Knowing some of these stats make you realize you need a sportsbook with a great sports betting menu.

On the other end, the Jets have yet to cover the spread in a game this season. That’s what happens when you continually get blown out. Dating back to last season, the Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

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The Pick

Bettors might be considering the total in this one as even 40 seems too low for these two inept offenses. The Jets have yet to top 20 points this season. Denver’s high is the 21 it scored in a 26-21 loss to Pittsburgh. The Broncos covered the 6.5-point spread in that game.

The UNDER has hit in six of the Jets last nine games, which is not surprising. Surprisingly, the Total has gone OVER in six of the last seven Broncos-Jets games played in New York. 

Something has to give here. The difference just might be the short week. The Jets will play at home and have the luxury of not having to travel. That will give some of their injured some extra time to heal.

Even though it’s painful, we’ll back the home underdog on Thursday night and take the Jets +3.

NFL Free Pick: JETS +3

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