NFL Divisional Round Betting Prediction

And then there were eight!

The NFL Playoffs are in full swing. Now we are down to the divisional round that will decide who goes to the Conference Championships.

We have four games on slate for this weekend. Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs, and Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers. 

Saturday | Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

The Vikings shocked the world last week when they went into New Orleans and upset the Saints as 8-point wild card underdogs. The Vikings are playing all-around great football. The Defense held Drew Brees to just 208 passing yards and made him 1-1 on the TD to INT ratio. Dalvin Cook is finally back he smashed in two TDs on the ground to complement Captain Kirk’s TD pass on 242 yards and no INTs.

The 49ers are playing at home and have been installed as seven-point favorites on the sportsbookreview.com odds board. Which, at a glance seems fair. This is the best Niners team we’ve seen in ages. That said, a full touchdown is a lot, given the fact that the Vikings are firing on all cylinders and have a ton of momentum coming off a huge road win in NOLA. 

Handicapping Stats 

The defenses are comparable, both residing in the top-10. Minnesota’s No. 6 scoring defense allows 19 points per game, 233.2 passing yards (No. 14), and 107.35 rushing yards (No. 13). Obviously, where they really excel is stopping opponents in the red zone.

Frisco has the No. 8 scoring defense with 19.4 allowed per game but the No. 1 passing D at 169.7 yards per game. They are No. 17 at stopping the run (112.63). At home, they actually allow a fraction of a point more to hit the scoreboards, but they improve to just 157.9 yards per game against QBs and receivers. On the flip-side, the Minnesota Vikings fall a bit in scoring defense to 21.56 allowed but their run D improves to just 103.9 yards per game.

The overall offensive stats favor the Niners by about 4 points. The Vikes score 25.5 points per game. This goes against the 49ers 29.9. The Niners out rush and out pass the Vikings. 144 to 133.5 and 237 to 220.5. So, it is understandable why the spread was set the way it was. The offensive Home vs. Away numbers stretch this out a bit further. Minnesota improves to 26.4 points per game on the road, but San Francisco also improves to 32.4 per game.  Minnesota passes better on the road 239.2 than San Francisco does at home but the 49ers still run the ball better at Levi with 143.4 yards per game. 

The Assessment

Drew Brees had almost no time to survey the field and find his receivers last week. This Skol defense is fired up and putting the pressure on. Although Jimmy G is coming up and is a fantastic QB, Drew Brees still has him beat on the ‘clutch meter’. I mention this because I believe the Vikings front is going to harass him. He won’t be able to take advantage of a weaker Minnesota secondary because the big uglies up front are going to put a lot of hits on him and force him from the pocket. 

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings are likely going to shove Dalvin Cook down the 49ers’ throat. First of all, the Niners secondary is just too good to go with a pass-first game-plan. Second, it will help them take time off the clock. The Niners could very well walk away with the win, but there is a ton of value on the Minnesota Vikings to get the backdoor cover on the point spread. Especially if you can buy them up to +7.5 on the cheap.

This line isn’t moving on its own. Buy the half-point and take the Minnesota Vikings +7.5.

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