Which college basketball teams are the best and worst against the spread off a straight up win and straight up loss? Two weeks ago, we gave the Margin of Cover (MOC) breakdown. Renamed “sweat barometer” in Chad Millman of ESPN’s column, MOC is similar to scoring margin, but it is measured by how much a team covers or fails to cover the point spread, many sports handicappers believe MOC is invaluable in isolating under and overvalued teams.
The teams are ranked using that same MOC statistic.
As of: games entering Feb. 11
Minimum number of lined applicable games: seven
Here are the top teams to bet on off a win according to their MOC
Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
Miami Fl 14-3 +9.2
San Francisco 7-1 +8.1
Towson 9-3 +7.3
Florida 12-5 +6.0
Colorado St. 9-6 +5.7
Southern Miss 10-6 +5.5
Cal Northridge 10-3 +5.2
Western Mich 10-4 +5.0
These would be the best teams to best against off a straight up win according to MOC
Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
Marshall 0-10 -10.8
Drexel 1-8 -7.8
TCU 0-7 -6.6
Cleveland St 3-7 -5.3
Oregon St 2-8 -5.1
Here are the top teams to bet on following a straight up loss according to their MOC
Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
G Washington 8-0 +9.2
UL Lafayette 8-5 +6.2
South Dakota 8-6 +5.5
Toledo 7-2 +5.3
CS Fullerton 6-4 +5.2
Nebraska 8-3 +5.2
These would be the best teams to best against off a straight up loss according to MOC
Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
SE Missouri 2-7 -6.7
CS Northridge 2-7 -5.8
Alabama 1-7 -5.6
Morehead St 4-6 -5.3
Southern Illinois 5-9 -5.0
Not surprisingly, a disproportionate number of teams are from smaller conferences as most pro gamblers believe the lower profile the team, the better the opportunity. There is no discernable pattern as to general rules of thumb to whether it is better to bet on or against a squad based on their previous game result.
Written by Joe Duffy of VegasTopDogs.com
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