What has happened to the Milwaukee Bucks? Losers of five straight heading into a Friday night game with Oklahoma City, the Bucks have been playing without guard Jrue Holiday.

Holiday missed six games due to NBA health and safety protocols. His status is uncertain, but there is a chance he could play Sunday night.

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Whether he does or not, bettors should focus on one key bet on Sunday night.

Game: Sacramento Kings (12-16, 13-15 ATS) at Milwaukee Bucks (16-13, 13-16 ATS)

When: 9:00 PM ET, Sunday, February 21, 2021

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

America’s Bookie Current Line: OFF Total: OFF

TV Coverage: FOX Sports Wisconsin

Milwaukee is the second-highest scoring team in the NBA behind Brooklyn. The Bucks average 119.6 points per game. They tend to play very well at home as they average 119.8 at the Fiserv Forum.

What the Bucks do better than any other team in the league is start strong in the first quarter. And, they are really good in the first quarter when they are at home. In fact, Milwaukee leads the NBA in first quarter scoring averaging 32.6 points in the opening frame.

Whether it’s the comforts of playing at home or familiarity of the homecourt, the Bucks are a strong bet at home as their 9-4 SU record attests. As far as backing Milwaukee against the spread at home, it’s not all bad but the Bucks are 7-6 ATS at the Fiserv Forum.

On the other end, backing Sacramento against the spread hasn’t been good for bettors either. The Kings are 13-15 ATS overall, but they are 7-3 ATS on the road. Despite Milwaukee’s recent five-game slide, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bucks were a double-digit home chalk.

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The big reason why would be related to the Kings awful defense. Sacramento ranks 29th in points allowed per game (119.2). Only Washington (119.5) is worse. 

In breaking down the Kings points allowed by quarter, you’ll find that the Kings allow 30.5 points per in the opening quarter of each game. That is the second-worst - again to Washington - in the league. In their last three games, the Kings have given up an average of 32.3 points in the first quarter. The Kings do give up fewer first quarter points on the road, but they still allow over 28 points.

What all this boils down to is the play on Sunday night’s Kings-Bucks matchup. The Bucks have lost five straight and haven’t covered in any of those games. Sacramento has a similar streak - five straight ATS losses. 

The Bucks are the NBA’s second-highest scoring team and the Kings are the second-worst in terms of scoring defense. Sacramento trends toward the Over (18-10) as does Milwaukee (17-12), but there is better play than just the total.

With Milwaukee at home against a poor Sacramento defense, the Bucks will get out of the gate quickly and win the race to 20 points. Milwaukee is fourth in first quarter scoring margin at +2.8, but that margin at home is a league-leading +6.2

Play the NBA Race to 20 Points prop and take the Bucks.

NBA Free Pick: Bucks Race to 20 Points

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