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Home / Articles / Mike's CFB Bowls 3rd Installment With Bowl POY Analysis/Review

Mike's CFB Bowls 3rd Installment With Bowl POY Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Jan 2, 2024
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Monday, January 01, 2024 Texas vs. Washington (NCAAF) - 8:45 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3.5/-110 Washington Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Bowl Game of the Year (WIN) This isn't a deep 12 or 15 Star selection, but it's the strongest of my meaningful games. Both of these teams met in the Alamo Bowl last bowl season with the 13-0 SU Huskies winning 27-20. This time around, key playmaker & having a breakout season RB Jonathon Brooks (1,139 rushing yards & 10 TD's, 286 receiving yards, 1 TD) will not be around as he was lost for the season in a Week 10 game with TCU tearing his ACL in his right knee. Don't believe the computer predictions of a 12-1 SU Longhorns' 8-point win here. Many things have to go their way for that to happen. For instance, Washington QB Michael Penix, Jr. must be shut down. That's a feat that has eluded the last 20 opponents -their current SU winning streak under new HC DeBoer. Penix is a PROVEN commodity combining for 13,056 passing yards & a 102/35 TD/INT ratio the past 3 seasons @ Indiana & Washington including 4,218 this season with a 33/9 TD/INT ratio. He still has 2 of his main WR's intact with Rome Odunze & JaLynn Polk who've combined for 141 receptions, 2,428 yards & have around a 17 YPC average & 21 TD's). Even though they're a passing offense (1st in the country), don't be surprised if RB Dillon Brooks (1,113 yards, 15 TD's, 5.5 YPR) gets more calls than his normal share pending coverages. On the flip side, we have another good QB in Quinn Ewers (3,161 passing yards with a 21/6 TD/INT ratio). He'll still have 2 good WR's to throw to in Xavier Worthy (969 yards & 5 TD's) & former Georgia standout Adonai Mitchell (813 yards, 10 TD's) along with CJ Baxter in the backfield (595 rushing yards & 4 TD's). There's much history with these 2 vying for National Championship as "The Steers" last won with Silver Fox HC Mack Brown (now @ North Carolina) in 2005 with QB Vince Young delivering a Rose Bowl win over HC Pete Carroll's USC Trojans. It's been since 1992 since the Huskies won it all in 1991 with "The Dawgfather" Don James as HC. DT Steve Emtman & QB Billy Jo Hobart (Co-players of the Game) best out Michigan 34-14 with HC Gary Moeller & his Top 2 - RB Tyrone Wheatley & the Heisman Trophy winning WR Desmond Howard. My bottom line says it may appear that Texas is back in the saddle with their well-seasoned HC Steve Sarkisian but you CAN'T ignore the fact they're 13-36 ATS as a favorite versus an undefeated opponent. Washington's 2nd year HC Kalen DeBoer has a history too, even before coaching Fresno State for 2 seasons. Yes, he's 24-2 SU with the Huskies but also went an unreal 67-3 SU in 5 seasons @ NAIA entry, the Sioux Falls Cougars with 3 national championships. He certainly gets my attention going a take-me-back-to-the-window 7-1 ATS when installed as an underdog. It's also noteworthy to point out undefeated bowl underdogs of 7 or less are a solid 12-8 versus the number versus non-undefeated foes. The PAC-12 winner also are road-tested tough winning games over tough teams like Arizona, USC & Oregon. The dagger for us has to be Texas taking on a similar offense like Oklahoma, the only team to beat the Longhorns this season @ a line of + 4 1/2 by a 34-30 count. Let's fly down to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl @ Caesars Superdome to play the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for 9 Stars (buying to a key + 7 1/2 @ -190) as well as taking them to win the National Championship @ a hefty payback of + 700! Saturday, December 30, 2023 Toledo vs. Wyoming (NCAAF) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -4.5/-110 Wyoming Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Bowl Brawler (LOSS) The majority of Mid-American Conference teams have showed up overall to this point. However, I DON'T like this matchup for Toledo & for what's @ stake for their opponent. Rockets' HC Jason Candle (8th season there) came on the scene in 2016 & has been to 5 bowl games coming into this one. What's on that resume'? Try a perfect 1-5 ATS & 2-4 SU! After back-to-back losses to Appalachian State & losses to Florida International & Middle Tennessee State, Toledo earned their 1st bowl win in 7 years but an ATS loss @ -4 (21-19 over the Liberty Flames) last season. That was their 1st post-season triumph since Matt Campbell left the program in 2015 for Iowa State (Candle coached that game only in 15'). They're currently 11-2 SU with 11 wins stretched in between an season-opening 30-28 loss @ Illinois & a recent 23-14 defeat to Miami, Ohio in the MAC Championship game @ Ford Field in Detroit. Upon further examination, that record is a little tainted since they faced the 130th-easiest schedule (out of 133) in the country. For this one, they WON'T have key dual-threat QB Dequan Finn (ran for 563 yards & 7 TD's & passed for 2,657 yards & 22 TD's-could be headed to Michigan or Ohio State) which should hamper offensive production leaving the heavy burden on RB Peny Boone (rushed for 1,400 yards, 15 TD's & 7.2 YPC) & a green 2nd-string QB Tucker Gleason (21 pass attempts this season). Remember, Miami, Ohio LAID the blueprints in stopping Boone's high rushing outputs in the MAC Championship. On the flip side, it's Wyoming HC Craig Bohl's swan song with DC Jay Sawvel taking over next year. Bohl's been around for 42 years with his roots tied into legendary Nebraska HC Tom Osborne where Craig started as a graduate assistant as well as a successful stint @ North Dakota State for 11 seasons where he went 104-32 & won 3 straight NCAA Division-1A (now FCS) national championships from 11' thru 13'. My bottom line says the Cowboys defense (10 starters back this season) played excellent down the stretch holding teams to just 2.4 yards per rush their last 3 games & should play a key role versus rush-heavy Toledo. Crunching the numbers reveal a WIDE edge in turnover differential with 8-4 SU Wyoming coming in @ a +10 while the Rockets chime in @ a -2. The "Boys From Laramie" are 6-1-1 ATS the past 8 bowlers, 7-1-1 against the points versus foes off a SU & ATS loss as well as their HC Bohl being a stellar 17-6-1 versus the number off back-to-back wins. Bowlers like Toledo (a team off a conference championship SU loss) are on a current 0-5 spread streak. With the Cowpokes being 4-0-1 spreadwise versus MAC teams, we'll head to Arizona Stadium in Tucson for the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl to play the WYOMING COWBOYS (buying to -2 @ -180) as my 8 Star Saturday Bowl Brawler! Thursday, December 28, 2023 Rutgers vs. Miami, Fla. (NCAAF) - 2:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread -1/-110 Rutgers Rating 9* Mike's Bowl Late Steam Sleeper Pick Of The Month (WIN) It's ironic that Rutgers HC Greg Schiano (his 1st year with the Scarlet Knights 22 years ago) actually hired current Miami, Fla. HC Mario Cristobal as his OL/TE coach. Now they face off here for the 1st time since Schiano defeated his Florida International Panthers' squad in 2009 & 2010. I feel New Jersey's Finest is more excited to be here & with the home field advantage of being in the Bronx. These 2 schools are polar opposites in bowls since 2005. In the past 18 seasons, Rutgers has gone 7-3 ATS while the Hurricanes are a 2-11 both SU & ATS in the post-season. Big Ten teams like Schiano's squad have mastered clubs from the ACC going 11-2 SU/10-3 ATS the past 13. My bottom line says it will a steep uphill climb for the Canes' NOT having QB Tyler Van Dyke who has entered the dreaded transfer portal. This leaves a very green 3rd-stringer Jacurri Brown (hasn't thrown a pass all season) to game-manage & try to match the Scarlet Knights score for score. The bulletin board for Schiano doesn't get ANY better than this team has beaten us ELEVEN times in a row. The adrenal rush from the crowd & playing @ this venue is BIG here! The Dagger for us looks @ Cristobal (2-4 ATS in bowls) being a horrible 1-6 versus the number versus opponents off back-to-back SU losses. Get fired up as we go to the natural grass of Yankee Stadium in the Bronx for the Pinstripe Bowl to play the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS on the ML as my 9 Star Bowl Late Steam Sleeper Pick of the Month! Tuesday, December 26, 2023 Bowling Green vs. Minnesota (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread -4/-110 Bowling Green Rating 8* Mike's Possibly Stuck In Neutral Bowler Play (PUSH) This last-minute late steamer has me siding with the MAC. Why? Because Minnesota & HC P.J. Fleck was putting away the gear for next year when they heard they got a bowl invite @ 5-7. That's right, there wasn't enough eligible 6-6 SU teams to fill the bowl slate. Guess who was 1st on the academic-driven eligible 5-7 teams? So Minnesota gets the last-minute invite & ironically get the same team that came to their house 2 seasons & left with a 14-10 upset win as a whopping 30 1/2-point dogs. The more-talented Golden Gophers are worthy of a look but that's it, just a look. I think they'll struggle to separate from a 7-5 SU Scott Loeffler squad who has a good chance to win the stats. Entering the season, what was the Falcons SU record when winning the (ITS) In The Stats column? Would you believe a staggering 47-8? Yes, it's true. Could they go toe-to-toe for 4 quarters? I believe they can since Minnesota's 1st-String QB Aidan Kaliakmanis (entered in the transfer portal) along with his backup Drew Viotto. A very green Cole Kramer is forced into action. That's enough for me to take a clear TD with the Bee Gees! We'll roll into Ford Field in Michigan for the Quick Lane Bowl to play the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (buying to +6 @ -150) as my Possibly Stuck In Neutral Bowl Play! Mike's 2023-24 CFB Overall Record: 16-7-1 for 69% good for +1,490 NET UNITS of PROFIT
 


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