Sunday, January 08, 2017 New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 4:40 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 44.5/-114 Over Pick Title: 8 Star Late Totality Win Click Here to View Pick Analysis These 2 teams have turned up their defenses a bit (especially on the Giants' side) the past few games. But what I still see is a Green Bay defense that still bends quite a bit. They've given up 21.5 PPG over the past month. Having said this, keep in mind that the Packers offense was held under 21 points @ home just 1 time (Dallas 16) in 8 tries this regular season. This tells us that there's MORE than a good chance this game winds up in the 20's (at least for the losing team) --barring multiple turnovers that's killed long drives. I feel this game is destined for points even though the New York defense looks better than when they've limited Green Bay to 23 earlier @ this venue. Let's go to the frozen tundra (bitter cold today) of Lambeau Field to put an 8 Star Late Totality entry on the OVER (buying to my original play line of 43 1/2 -134). Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 1:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 11.5/-110 Miami Dolphins Pick Title: 8 Star Public Missed Perception Play Loss Click Here to View Pick Analysis The public perception on this play is that the Dolphins have defensive injuries & lack skill-position players to matchup with the Steelers' offensive weapons. Whether or not that's true (of which I don't believe in total), the defensive blueprints of an effective 3-4 scheme were laid earlier by DC Vance Joseph that clearly showed ways to pressure Roethlisberger. There's no doubt the way to effectively stopping Pittsburgh rests on the how well the Fish defense stops all-purpose RB Le'Veon Bell. Without question, the revenge-minded team along with the so-called (by ex-Steeler Terry Bradshaw?) rah-rah HC Mike Tomlin are coming into this with high motivation. The atmosphere in Steel Town even threw a pep rally to get everyone extra-juiced. Will the crowd will be deafening? Absolutely! But this is about the number not the SU winner. If anyone has looked at Pittsburgh (whose had some really good teams) over their last decade of playoff games, it CLEARLY reveals that 8 TIMES of 11 games & 6 of the last 7 found the winning margin being 7 points or LESS! That 6 of the last 7 stat tells me a lot about Mike Tomlin as well. He may jet out to that early adrenalin lead & it may carry. However, unlike incapable backup Connor Cook yesterday, 2nd-stringer Matt Moore is a capable backup that's put up a very good 105.6 QBR & must have a decent offensive line. Why? Because it shows he's been sacked 1 time in 3 GAMES! His 8/3 TD/INT ratio & 66.2% completion accuracy tells us he CAN do the job. More credit has to be given to HC Adam Gase for realizing HOW to play to his teams' strengths. they come in winners of 9 of 11 with 1 bad loss to Baltimore & a double-digit loss to New England (along with the Steelers having 1 of the same to NE as well). There's an ATS line where I wanted to go before lines came out & here it is! It's a bit risky but I feel this is the only way to go considering MUSHES, one-sidedness & a capable Miami QB. We'll go to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh to play the MIAMI DOLPHINS (buying to + 14 1/2 @ -180) as my 8 Star Public Missed Perception Play! New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 4:40 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-103 New York Giants Pick Title: 9 Star Impervious Buyout Smart Play Loss Click Here to View Pick Analysis The Green Bay Packers are a team nobody wants to play right now. That might be true except with the Giants. They've proven more than once that they can go into the hostile environment of Lambeau Field & silence the crowd. They did in OT in 2008 pulling out a 23-20 win with a 47-yard Lawrence Tynes FG AND once again in 2012 with a convincing 37-20 win spear-headed by a 37-yard Hail Mary touchdown to Hakeem Nicks on the final play of the first half. What you have to remember here is this: the New York secondary was decimated by injuries in that earlier 23-16 regular season loss @ Lambeau. The Packers had every reason to blowout New York (but couldn't) even with the 2-week preparation for the G-Men off their bye week. For me, this game shows 2 stout run defenses that pretty much even themselves out. But the difference here has to be the Giants having the better secondary. Green Bay has make-shifted safeties into cornerbacks with more than a few injuries. Those specific injuries to CB's Damarious Randall & Quinten Rollins should give Eli "the playoff Rambeau of Labeau" Manning enough time to create mismatches away from Ha-Ha Clinton Dix who leads the team with 5 INT's. Look for rookie WR Sterling Shepherd to be the X-Factor in this game since most of the attention will be shifted for WR's Odell Beckham, Jr. & Victor Cruz. The G-Men also have another sensation rookie (didn't play in the 1st game this season) in RB Paul Perkins who was instrumental in a 146-yard rushing day for NY when they knocked off the Redskins' playoff hopes last week. There's no doubt that the hottest QB is Aaron "Mr. Discount Double Check" Rodgers. Whether or not he was having a hot hand or not, Manning has covered both playoff games here AND this season's regular season loss. My bottom line says knowing Manning's 8-1 SU & ATS mark in the last 9 of the post-season as well as New York's 15-3 ATS mark since 1984 during games this time of year, it makes it hard to make a strong case for the Green & Yellow. Let's look @ the coaches. An important factor to be mixed in on our side has to be the pupil (Ben McAdoo) knowing the mentor (Mike McCarthy) very well since spending 8 years as a Packers' assistant (2 years as Rodgers' QB coach). Forget the Giants' players & "Boat Gate" since this that was a day & NOT anything more. up against a defense that can't crack the Top 20, I love our chances. The spread earlier in the season was 7 1/2 & that's where we're playing it- @ my early line. Remember since the post-milennium, playoff underdogs of + 7 1/2 have been a consistent money-earner going 26-19 ATS. Let's take the edge BACK as we go to Lambeau Field to play the NEW YORK GIANTS (buying to + 7 1/2 -183) as my 9 Star Impervious Buyout Smart Play! Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 1:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 46.0/-110 Under Pick Title: 8 Star Totals Play Win Click Here to View Pick Analysis I believe Pittsburgh's defense will come in MORE than juiced up here. Even with Miami scoring 2nd half points, I look for the total to stay UNDER. Having said that, I ALSO believe the Dolphins' "D" can limit the Steelers' scores once the early adrenalin has lifted. Miami held Seattle to 12 in front of the 12th man earlier so they are ALSO capable of holding Pittsburgh to 24 or less. For an OVER to hit, the Fish must score 24 or more. I don't think that's going to happen. This is NOT the Bills or Jets where Dolphins' 2nd-string QB Matt Moore put up 34-spots. Many occasions in past wild-card games I've found teams that end the season with OVERS tend to turn the defenses up more than a notch come playoff time. Let's go Heinz Field in Pittsburgh to play the UNDER (buying to 47 1/2) as my 8 Star Totals Play! Saturday, January 07, 2017 Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 4:35 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 37.0/-104 Over Pick Title: 9 Star Totals Play Win Click Here to View Pick Analysis I'm not an advocate of playing totals in the regular season. However, the playoffs always show an all-out, full playbook of features to give a true indication of the number. I believe there will be defensive points here as well as turnovers to set up easy points during this AFC Wild card battle. These 2 earlier met in Mexico where you'll get OTHER reasons why I like one of these sides. As long as multiple LONG drives aren't killed by TO's or missed FG's, we should cash this play even with back-up QB's in place. Let's go to NRG Stadium in Houston to play OVER the total (buying to 36 1/2 @ -124) as my 9 Star Totals Play! Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 4:35 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -195 Houston Texans Pick Title: 10 Star Strongest Play On The Board Win Click Here to View Pick Analysis The mantra has always been that the NFL is a quarterback's league. I also believe the BEST QB in today's game is the $72 million free-agent bust the Texans have in QB Brock Osweiler who faces a 27th-ranked defense. Even though the numbers don't show an overwhelming advantage, the sometimes called "Brick" Osweiler has the experience and enough tools to put up enough points on the board to make things very uncomfortable for Oakland (their "D" ranks dead last in sacks per pass play in the NFL) to play catch-up. I saw more PANIC than HOPE @ HC Jack Del Rio's press conferences. This was especially true when asked questions about his starting QB. That QB will be none other be a rookie on the road making his start in Connor Cook who was drafted out of Michigan State. He's a VERY GREEN 3rd-stringer who won't be playing a backed-off secondary whose team is playing with a double-digit lead. OC Bill Musgrave has to put in a simplified offense in order for Cook to grasp anything on this short of a notice. The only problem with that can be summed up in 2 words -- ROMEO CRENNEL. Houston DC Romeo Crennel is a MASTER at making a sub-par or green QB look silly. He can quickly turn a rookie QB's debut into a nightmare. His 3-4 defensive scheme (responsible for their 1st-ranked in the NFL in defensive yards allowed) has multiple looks that can easily confuse a normal QB's (see talented Andrew Luck's results) hot reads since he'll attack you from multiple gaps (similar to Mike Zimmer's pressure attacks) using his LB's to quickly attack during carefully disguised blitzes & stunts. Houston has a top-rated defense & will load the box on RB Latavius Murray & force the rookie to beat them. On the flip side, I believe Brock Osweiler knows his role & will let his the defense dictate his successes. Patience is all he needs to gradually pull away from the mistake-prone Raiders. Look for Oakland's heavy turnover ratio advantage (+16 on year-tied for 1st) to take on a horrible turnaround. Texans' HC Bill O'Brien & staff will be heavily motivated, not only for the ugly press conference questions last week, but also for the laser-pointers in his players' faces during their 27-20 loss to Oakland earlier in the regular season @ Aztec Stadium (1st game there since 2005) in Mexico City. If you remember, the now-injured Derek Carr had to engineer to late drives just to pull that game out. I don't see a 3rd-stringer doing that here. My bottom line says the Texans will be eager to erase that bitter 30-0 shutout loss to Kansas City here in last year's wild-card round. There's very strong numbers that support our cause. Houston's a very strong 7-1 SU @ home (beat KC 19-12, beat Detroit 20-13 --their only loss was when they came up flat versus San Diego 21-13 in late November) for a reason & take on a Raider Nation team that's seen the host go 6-0-2 ATS in Silver & Black games. O'Brien is an incredible 18-2 SU in the favorite role besides being 8-1 SU following a loss. In addition, since 1999 I've found that regular-season loss avenging teams have cashed tickets @ the window in 25 of 37 tries (3 ties not counted) when playing @ home during the wild-card round. Since it will be super-hard for Cook to have enough time to consistently hit his 2 talented WR's in Amari Cooper & Michael Crabtree), the Texans are clearly the right side. DEFENSE wins playoff games, especially here! After this one, they might be re-naming the Raiders' QB Connor Cooked as we confidently go to NRG Stadium to play the HOUSTON TEXANS as my 10 Star Strongest Play On The Board! Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 9.0/-120 Detroit Lions Pick Title: 9 Star Public Missed Perception Play Of The Week Loss Click Here to View Pick Analysis I'm kind of sick & tired of all the hype centered around Detroit QB Matthew Stafford's injured finger. It's not a MAJOR factor here. This team CLEARLY looked in look-ahead mode versus Dallas 2 weeks ago (see our analysis & review winner from that game). They also entered last week's NFC North showdown with Green Bay already having clinched a playoff spot. So WHO would the Lions rather play in the opening round? They NO DOUBT match up BETTER with the Seahawks & NOT the Giants (see how Caldwell's offense was shut down 17-6 by them 3 weeks ago) who have a tough secondary to create space against right now. Yes, and that's what they have. I seriously believe that this season's rendition of the Seattle Seahawks are OVER-RATED! A very similar team came up to the "12th Man" earlier (the Miami Dolphins) & found a way to hang with Russell Wilson & Co. before getting edged by a 12-10 count. Remember, that was when Seattle had their "main cog" of the defense present in S Earl Thomas. Now, their defense is clearly more vulnerable @ stopping the pass as also indicated in a 25-23 win over hapless San Francisco last week AND in revenge-mode 2 weeks ago when under .500 Arizona came to this field & left with a 34-31 win. The blueprints have been laid for each team to attack the other's weakness. John Q. Public & the MUSHES will be all over the home team here that also comes into this losing their last 4 post-season games ATS. My bottom line says that Seattle QB Russell Wilson has never lost a home playoff game. However, asking him to cover double-digits is a whole different matter versus OC Jim Bob Cooter "O" who beat both Minnesota (22-16 in OT) & outscored No. 1 offense New Orleans (28-13) on the road. I'm sure Cooter will design a game plan that will exploit newly-inserted S Steven Terrell (in Thomas's spot) using receivers WR's Golden Tate (very familiar with Seattle), Marvin Jones & Anquan Boldin. The different complexion taken by the Seahawks losing 3 skilled-position players in WR Tyler Lockett, RB C.J. Procise & S Earl Thomas has clearly shown. Their 10-5-1 SU record is majorly padded by being a very weak division where they even lost to weak-sister Los Angeles this season. I'm not saying Detroit's in line to get 2 SU playoff wins in a row ( last done by the talented Tobin Rote in 57' when they won it all), but they have the talent to play even-up WITH a cutting-edge game plan that Cooter has delivered in the past. I love HC Caldewell in the dog role as well so let's motor to CenturyLink Field to grab the Motor City Madmen, the DETROIT LIONS (buying to + 10 1/2 -170) as my 9 Star Public Missed Perception Play Of The Week! Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Total: 44.0/-103 Over Pick Title: 8 Star Saturday Night Late Total Loss Click Here to View Pick Analysis There's really not much to this than what I've said in my sides write-up. Safety Earl Thomas won't be quarterbacking the secondary & changing defenses accordingly. This was prevalent since he went down to injury. Seattle has given up 57 points the last 2 weeks heading in. Detroit is lacking on this side of the ball as well as. Despite the weather forecast, I'm sticking to my guns anticipating this to be a 23-20 (worst scenario) or 34-24 (best scenario) result that would BOTH end in our favor. There might be more runs to feel out the defenses early on. However, look for a more open playbook on both sidelines once the X's & O's start flying from the press boxes. Let's go to CenturyLink Field in possibly snowy Seattle to play the OVER (buying to 42 1/2 -153) as my 8 Star Saturday Night Late Total! KEY NOTES ADDRESSED: It was nice to hit a big 10 Star. However, getting a 4-4 finish left me disappointed. When the Seahawks' WR (Richardson) pushes off to get open for a TD without a flag, I knew the play would come back to haunt us (It did when they covered with another late TD). Then it was Miami QB Matt Moore getting a helmet tackle (yep, no call or ejection) on the verge of FG range. As a result, Pittsburgh covers by under a TD as haunt #2. Finally, the epitome was how badly disciplined the Giants actually is. It wasn't enough that WR's stole the attention with "Boat Gate" all week. They come out in practice in sub-degree (with wind chill) temperatures with no shirts. Anyone who played knows what that does (compared to if it was in the 30's to 40's). The nervous system AND coordination SUFFERS IMMENSELY if subjected to these temps especially if trying to catch long passes coming @ you like a b-b. In addition, the G-Men refused to let the opening kickoff go out-of-bounds resulting in excellent field position @ their own 40. they field the kick & get pinned @ the 3 leading to Green Bay's 1st points. The last play before the half sees Aaron Rodgers complete his 3rd Hail Mary TD resulting in a 14-6 halftime lead. Why did this happen? Because rookie CB out of Ohio State Eli apple decide to attempt to bat the ball or claim an INT INSTEAD of PLAYING THE MAN pushing WR Randall Cobb (who was already close to the end line) out of bounds simultaneous to contacting the ball (needs BOTH feet in bounds). Since New York scored a TD first in the 2nd half, that could have changed the confidence level & complexion of the game. At any rate, the inability of a Giants' ground game & numerous dropped passes resulted in defensive exhaustion that made Rodgers look like a savior by games' end. A looking-like 7-1 weekend ended @ 4-4. Get ready for the EYE OF THE TIGER this weekend! Wild-card Weekend: 4-4 50% 10 Stars: 1-0 100% 2016-17 NFL Overall Record: 55-47 54%
 

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