Monday, January 02, 2017 Iowa vs. Florida (NCAAF) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-110 Iowa Pick Title: 9 Star Barking Out Loud Dogger Loss Click Here to View Pick Analysis It's true that Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz already received his incentive bonuses for a bowl birth & 8-wins or better season, but it's not going to put him or his team in a passive mode. The Hawkeyes have built some serious momentum coming into this by knocking off both No. 3 Michigan 14-13 & then annihilating No. 16 Nebraska 40-10 @ Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. Besides Iowa's 3-0 SU/ATS coming in, they have a KILLER defense where DC Phil Parker's 4-3 defensive scheme has thrived. Down the stretch, that "D" has limited opponents to less than 8 PPG. Looking @ the coaching matchup, we find a successful Kirk Ferentz @ 8-5 ATS in bowls with Florida HC Jim McElwain failing ATS in both appearances. Even though the Gators' "D" & the Black & Gold both give up an identical 17.9 PPG this season, the Orange & Blue had an easier schedule of FBS opponents facing teams with a winning percentage of .492. On the flip side of that coin, we find Iowa facing a much tougher schedule as teams won @ a .556 clip. My bottom line clearly points out that teams with dueling QB's (Florida had Luke Del Rio (Oakland Raiders' HC Jack Del Rio's son) starting 6 games & current starter & Purdue transfer Austin Appleby also starting 6, there's hasn't been too much continuity built. That's clearly apparent when you look @ their pedestrian 16/13 TD/INT ratio numbers. On the ground, Iowa has out-rushed by 548 total yards playing a tougher schedule & has put up 23 rushing TD's compared to the Gators' 11. The Hawkeye running tandem of LeShun Daniels (1,013 rushing yards, 5.1 YPR, 10 TD's) & Akrum Wadley (966 rushing yards, 6.6 YPR, 10 TD's) have the upper hand in the trenches. I like the fact that 3-year man & Iowa QB C.J. Beathard (forced QB Jake Rudock to transfer to Michigan after the 14' season-led Michigan to a 10-win season in 15') has limited his mistakes turning in a 17/7 TD/INT ratio. The dagger for us is this. Teams that lose their conference championships have come back on a BIG downer of late. The past 2 bowl seasons have seen ALL 10 TEAMS losing their conference championship proceed to also lose their following bowl game SU. Before we make the pick, know that Florida DC has already bolted to Temple AND distraction #2 that some Gators declared early for the NFL draft adds fuel to our fire. Let's make tracks down to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa for the Outback Bowl to play the IOWA HAWKEYES (buying to + 3 1/2 @ -150) with some pasta saved for the ML as my 9 Star Barking Out Loud Dogger! Auburn vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 8:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-110 Auburn Pick Title: 10 Star College Bowl Game Of The Year Loss Click Here to View Pick Analysis While this game doesn't compare to the College Game Of The Year, it is still a 300-unit play. The last 2 years have seen the Oklahoma Sooners come into the bowl season with high aspirations only to leave disappointed after losing 40-6 & 37-17 to Clemson in the Russell Athletic & Orange Bowls. It's really hard to put any money on HC Bob Stoops (18th year @ OU) whose 8-9 SU in bowls. More importantly, he's been responsible for 5 of 6 of the worst losses (all occuring under his watch since 2005) in the Boomer Sooners' 49 bowl appearances. QB Baker Mayfield has been here for 2 of them & enters this game with a 38/8 TD/INT ratio. Look for new DC Kevin Steele (who took over for Will Muschamp this year & has a Top 20 "D" that's also 5th in the FBS in points allowed with just 15.6 PPG) to employ defensive schemes to contain Oklahoma's top WR in Dede Westbrook (74 receptions, 1,465 receiving yards, 19.8 YPC, 16 TD's). The Tigers have also faced a much tougher schedule with their FBS only opponents having a .590 winning percentage compared to Oklahoma's much softer schedule of opponents who had a .541 winning percentage. While 2-time National Championship game entry Clemson went wire-to-wire before beating Auburn 19-13, Oklahoma lost by 3 TD's (45-24) to an Ohio State Buckeyes' team that was just shut out 31-0 by Clemson. In addition, Tigers' HC Gus Malzahn (4th year there) is 2-1 ATS/1-2 SU in bowls & has been in every bowl game. Besides last season's lopsided 31-10 win over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl, Auburn narrowly lost to 17th-ranked Wisconsin 34-31 in OT in 2014's Outback Bowl AND also in 2013's BCS Championship game to #1-ranked Florida State by that identical 34-31 score. My bottom line says that momentum will return to the Tigers again since both QB Sean White (9/3 TD/INT ratio, missed starting 3 games) & top running back Kamryn Pettway (1,123 rushing yards, 6.1 YPR, 7 TD's, missed 3 games) are back 100% coming off injuries. When both were healthy in October, the Tigers averaged 48 PPG that included wins by 24 @ Mississippi State & @ difficult Ole Miss by 11. (just ask Bama' how difficult it is --they trailed @ Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford most of the game before escaping with a 48-43 win there) The dagger for us has to be the fact that the SEC has covered on a strong & consistent basis OVER the weaker Big 12 in 14 out of the last 16 tries (14-2 ATS)! Add on the Sooners 2-6 ATS favorite record in bowls & it seals it. Remember that OU's Mayfield clearly has numbers & enough talent but deeper homework ALSO reveals his past showing struggling performances versus strong defenses in non-conference play. Ball control means loads as we'll take the team with #6 best rushing offense in the country & better "D". The AUBURN TIGERS (buying to + 3 1/2 @ -150) are my 10 Star College Bowl Game Of The Year down @ the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans for this year's Sugar Bowl! NOTES: We came out on the short end of the stick on our best bowl for the 1st time in 5 years & 1st time in NFL/CFB in 3 years (3 GOY each year). QB's in both games unprepared in chalk room forcing balls in MANY tight areas. Crappy way to end the year but good bowl record nevertheless. Last Weekend Bowls: 0-2 Overall Bowl Record: 9-6 60% 2016-17 CFB Overall Record: 43-28 60.1%
 

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