Saturday, August 31, 2024 Miami Florida vs. Florida (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2.5/-105 Florida Rating: 8* Mike's First CFB Play Of Season (LOSS) Before we get started, let's remember that last season's success was sealed by very selective & effective handicapping that strictly takes into account coaching changes (head & assistants) as well as the revolving carousels on each of the 134 teams created by the pandemic-driven, omnipresent transfer portal. We'll keep an eye on new coaches like Kalen DeBoer (ex-Washington HC) who took over for Nick Saban @ Alabama & Mike Elko (ex-Duke HC) whose taken over the reigns Texas A&M replacing Jimbo Fisher. Now, let's head down to 'The Swamp" for an intrastate battle between the always-hyped Hurricanes & their overrated Miami native/HC Mario Cristobal (he's actually paid $8M a season?) versus Florida & their HC Billy Napier whose team plays the toughest schedule in the country. Having said that, it's PARAMOUNT that he gets off to a great start since he'll be a TD or more underdog throughout 5 straight November games versus the juggernaut schedule of Georgia, @ Texas, LSU, Ole Miss & @ Florida State. Last time here in 08', Miami lost 26-3. But while many give a quick rebuttal to point out that Miami snatching ex-Washington State QB Cam Ward (67% completions & a 25/7 TD/INT ratio) should solve some of their recent woes, nobody is paying attention to Florida's Graham Mertz who completed 73% of his passes & finished with a 20/3 TD/INT ratio. In addition, they ALSO landed their highest overall recruit in 9 seasons with 5-star QB D.J. Langway out of Willis HS in Texas. My bottom line points out Napier is a better-performing HC in this spot than Cristobal (one of the worst ATS HC's in CFB). Let's look @ some overwhelming numbers. Napier's an amazing 11-2 SU/ATS as an underdog of fewer than 5 points as a HC. In this same exact scenario (location/ATS) 2 seasons ago, the Gators upset Utah 29-26. Last season @ Gainesville, they also beat Tennessee 29-16 in September. I'm expecting #29 K Trey Smack to play a key role down the stretch (nailed a 54-yard FG last season). The dagger for us in this game has to be Florida's home opener record against non-conference opponents. Since 1980, the Chop Shop has gone a near-perfect 37-0-1 SU. Here's where we're going. We're wearing the hip boots & invading Gainesville's Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to play the FLORIDA GATORS (buying to a key + 4 1/2 @ -155 for 8 Stars as my First CFB Play Of The Season! Notes: Forthcoming Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 CFB Overall Record: 0-1 for -1,240 Net Units
 

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