Sunday, February 11, 2024 San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 6:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -125 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 8* Mike's Super Bowl Side With Superior Winning Props (Loss on Side, 8-2 Props = 8-3, +1,100 Net Units) Kudos to the Chiefs for winning the AFC Championship! However, the "Walrus" stops here! Yes, Andy Reid & Pat Mahomes SEEM to have the upper hand in coaching & QB/underdog-type angles. But that's NOT what matters AFTER a whole 2 WEEK lay off on the way to the SUPER BOWL. You need to examine things from ALL angles. Besides the bone-headed turnovers, I'm still puzzled as how new Baltimore OC Todd Monken decides he's going to abandon the run while only down 7-0? With 4 fresh running backs, he fell for the bait of KC defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo as his defensive alignments dictated a "pass" look. I don't think San Francisco HC & offensive guru Kyle Shanahan will be making that same mistake. Why? Because the 49ers have a BEVY of offensive firepower the Chiefs DON'T have. San Francisco has a team that plays DOWN to their competition. But when they played teams that really mattered with the line hovering around a FG (versus Dallas & Philadelphia), they won by a combined 84-29 count. They're well aware of Spagnuolo's disguised coverages. They know his bread n' butter comes from pressure on drop-backs (31.7% blitz packages) that's set around his CB speed featuring Trent McDuffie & L'Jarius Sneed. That is unlike most NFL teams who center packages around LB's & safeties. I believe this game will be won in the trenches. San Francisco can beat you MANY ways. They are the KING of misdirection & motion on offense. They always have that dual-threat coming from RB Christian McCaffrey, the dangerous seam routes of TE George Kittle, the breakaway threat of slotman Deebo Samuel, the knack of WR Brendon Aiyuk to fall into the open space of the secondary. The X-factor NOBODY is talking about has to be FB Kyle Juszczyk who is an excellent blocking back & has 33 yards in receptions in 2 playoff games. NOT having a 100% healthy DE in Charles Omenihu will prove to be a tough thing to overcome in the long run on the defensive line. My bottom line says the 49ers have better running backs, both lines in the trenches AND linebackers to win it in the end. Getting embarrassed by KC a few seasons ago & losing 4 Super Bowl's ago adds tremendous fuel for the fire. The Chiefs' Pat Mahomes is a proven commodity who has nothing MAJOR to prove except in adding to his legacy. Yes, that's important. However, that's not enough to get over the hump against QB Brock Purdy (looking to become the 2nd Super Bowl winning QB with the Number 13 -- Kurt Warner did it in 2000 @ the Georgia Dome with the St. Louis Rams beating Tennessee 23-16) who has many chips @ his disposal. 6 out of 7 of KC's playoff TD's in 3 games were scored by just 2 Chiefs' players: TE Travis Kelce & RB Isiah Pacheco. Their offense has habitually stalled in the 2nd half throughout the season with Reid's slow-tempo pace (In fact, 2 Second-Half OVERS in 20 games). Crunching the numbers (as well as every media personnel on TV) show Mahomes is 13-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career as well as the team with better SU record being on a 1-15 ATS skid. But here's what they DIDN'T show you! SF HC Kyle Shanahan, when coming off a tandem of SU wins & facing an opponent off a SU underdog win, has gone a PERFECT 7-0 ATS. Let's now look into what Purdy's young career reveals. When the so-called "Mr. Irrelevant" is favored by fewer than 4 points ATS, he sits @ an unblemished 7-0 both SU & versus the number. In addition, when Brock faced teams making the NFC playoffs this season, he finished with a perfect 6-0 SU record. Know that NFL 2023-24 favorites of - 1 1/2 are 19-11 SU. If the line swells to -3, those chalkers sit 37-15 SU this season. After tailing the losers throughout the season, almost EVERY of those targeted cappers are on the Kansas City side. We're staying SHARP as we invade Allegiant Stadium in Nevada to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS on the ML -125 for 8 Stars. (Loss - 1,000) We're playing what's given us while laying extra juice on some. Let's get into my official proposition bets where EVERYONE should shop around to get the play & the best numbers. PROP 1 BET: Will there be a Punt Return For a TD? -- Bet NO. (WIn- 2 Stars +200) PROP 2 BET: Will There Be an OT? -- Bet NO. (Loss- 2 Stars -2,200) PROP 3 BET: Will both teams score 35+ points? -- Bet NO. (Won- +500) PROP 4 BET: Will There Be A Punt Blocked? -- Bet NO. (Won- +500) PROP 5 BET: Will There Be a Successful Onside Kick? -- Bet NO. (Won- +500) PROP 6 Bet: Kyle Juszczyk 0.5 Total Receptions -- Bet OVER. (Won- +1,000) PROP 7 Bet: Kansas City/Harrison Butker 1.5 FG's Made -- Bet OVER. (Won- +1,000) PROP 8 BET: Total Alternate Rushing Yards by Christian McCaffrey -- BET UNDER 114 1/2. (Won- +1,000) PROP 9 BET: Total Alternate Receiving Yards By Jauan Jennings -- Bet UNDER 29.5. (Loss -1,400) PROP 10 BET: Brandon Aiyuk Alternate Total Receptions -- Bet UNDER 5 1/2. (Won- +1,000) Parlay these bets when permissible in 2-4 bet plays. You should have 11 total plays with the top side play included versus the numbers in all. Here's my UN-official not against the record FREE plays: 1st TD Scorer: Noah Gray: +3500 30 for $1,080. L-30 Brock Purdy: +2800 20 for $580. L-20 Marquez Valdes-Scantling: +2800 20 for $580. L-20 Alternate O/U: UNDER 51.5 -186. W+500 Alternate ATS: SF - 9 1/2 +260.L-200 Deebo Samuel MVP: +3500 L-30 (All Free Play went +200 Net Units) Notes: Separate article Mike Handzelek's Final 2023-24 NFL Overall Record: 41-7 for 85% +18,630 NET UNITS of PROFIT #1 @ Vegastopdogs.com Mike's Final 2023-24 CFB Overall Record: 16-7-1 for 69% + 1,490 NET UNITS Mike's CFB/NFL Combined Overall Record: 57-14-1 for 80% + 20,120 NET UNITS Mike's Private Play Parlays (3-4+ Teams) 13-5 for 72% +4,610 NET UNITS Mike's Final Overall Football: +24,730 NET UNITS of PROFIT #1 @ Vegastopdogs.com