Sunday, February 05, 2017 New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 6:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -146 New England Patriots Pick Title: 9 STAR Super Bowl X's & O's Full Advantage Smart Play+10 Props Win Click Here to View Pick Analysis This Super Bowl may look suspenseful but I feel there is 1 clear-cut winner. HC Bill Belichick has proven time and time again that he can stop ANY potent offense. Overall, this has also panned out over the past 16 Super Bowls where the team with the best DEFENSE has won it 14 times! If Belichick can devise a game plan (with 2 weeks prep) against the "greatest show on turf" with Kurt Warner & Marshall Faulk & beat them (20-17 Pats in 2002) with a then-green Tom Brady, what can he do now with an experienced Brady versus Atlanta now? In addition, DC Matt Patricia & Belichick have watched opponents score 15.6 PPG against their "D" & those numbers have held true to form in the AFC playoffs with Houston scoring 13 & Pittsburgh 17 for a 15 PPG allowed average. In the words of Tom Brady, "Our defense became way more difficult to penetrate & complete passes during the 2nd half of the season.." That tells me they're peaking right now. I'm not saying the Falcons will be held to 15 points, but I am saying they will be held under their projected margin (a bonus prop play) for this game. Remember, Belichick (a defensive coach for the Giants) shut down the gun-slinging Jim Kelly of Buffalo who was pretty successful @ generating points with a very high-octane offense as well. How was he successful? He was successful by knowing when to strategically insert dime packages that should considerably disrupt the Dirty Birds' offensive flow along with QB Matt Ryan's timing. What Belichick wants is to guess right when Atlanta has to pass since the dime makes his defense susceptible versus the run. The facts remain that Safety Devin McCourty is arguably a Top-3 safety in the NFL & when you combine him with CB's Malcolm Butler & Logan Ryan, you have quite an aggressive blanket to try to burn. The Falcons beat 2 teams with major flaws & a weak running game, the Green Bay Packers & Seattle Seahawks. New England doesn't have major flaws. Brady comes in severely motivated. Not only does he want to be handed the Super Bowl trophy by Commissioner Roger Goddell, but he wants to win 1 last super bowl for his mom Galynn whose been dealing with major health issues the past 2 years. Beating the Falcons isn't anything new as Tom Terrific has a 4-0 lifetime record with a 9/1 TD/INT ratio versus Atlanta. Whether or not HC Dan Quinn admits it, even though his "D" improved , he has a VERY GREEN back seven with 5 players in their 1st or second year. They rank 27th of 32 in points allowed, 26th on 3rd-down defense & dead last in the red-zone defense. With the exception of the NFL sack leader Vic Beasley & Dwight Freeney, it's going to be hard to generate a pass rush on Brady on a consistent basis. He just knows when to get rid of the ball. If you play him Cover-2, he will beat you (ala Pittsburgh) with his 2-beater passing routes no matter who the receiver. If you load the box, he's smart enough to quick-read & call the short to intermediate routes. Tom Brady & Co. have big-game pedigree as this will be the 7th Super Bowl teaming up with his HC (whose in his 10th as a coach overall). He now takes on a defense that's not only missing CB Desmond Trufant (best cover man in the secondary) but they also are minus the team's 2nd-best pass rusher in DE Adrian Clayborn. My bottom line says the Patriots can successfully play a slower tempo by combining to throw shorter routes to Julian Edelman & Co. with timely power running by LeGarrette Blount. I don't see a Cover-3 "D" working if Dan Quinn chooses to actually stay that route. It only works up against defenses which Matt Ryan shreds consistently & builds a sizable lead. Remember that Quinn (as Seattle's DC) with one of the TOP defenses in the century LOST to Brady a few years back. It's awful difficult to throw something @ Brady he hasn't seen or game-planned for. He's still a student of the game as proven by keeping close contacts with Charlie Weis-ex OC @ New England. I look for Brady to run his career record to 8-0 SU & ATS in the state of Texas. Throw meaningless statistics out the window since this game will be decided by the better X's & O's! Let's go to NRG Stadium in Houston for Super Bowl LI to plat the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS as my 9 Star Super Bowl X's & O's Full Advantage Smart Play! 10 Prop Bets For SERIOUS BETTORS----1) Longest FG OVER 45 1/2 Yards -130-----2) Will there be a 2-point conversion attempted-YES +140-----3) Total Points By Atlanta UNDER 28 -110----- 4) Falcons score 1st but Falcons lose game PAYOFF 4/1 ! ----- 5) Will either team score in final 2 minutes of 1st half YES -330----- 6) No Safety -900----- 7) Defensive or Special Teams TD? NO -200-----8) Will there be OT NO -1100----- 9) Longest lead by either team UNDER 16 1/2 +100----- 10) Will there be a roughing the passer penalty? NO -150. It was an up and down day with prop bets due to OT & a defensive TD, but we cashed yet again on the Super Bowl Side running the overall Super Bowl Side Record to 33-10! It was a tale of 2 halves with Tom Brady throwing a very rare Pick-6 after badly misreading coverages ( a rare thing to behold). It didn't help when LeGarrette Blount fumbled away a scoring drive that swung momentum heavily into Atlanta's favor. However, whether Bill Belichick wanted to admit it or not, I felt DC Matt Patricia made some key adjustments in creating better pressure on Dirty Birds' QB Matt Ryan. Remember, New England out-gained Atlanta by OVER 200 yards & held an amazing 40-21 minute edge in time of possession. Without the 1st-half Blount-er (pun intended) & Brady's terrible read, there would NOT have been OT & the Patriots would have hoisted the trophy in Goddell's face much sooner. Speaking of hoisting the trophy, did anyone notice when Goddell shook Brady's hand, Tom Terrific held on to his hand a few seconds longer & whispered a few words to him before letting go. Many people are speculating what was exchanged during that quick moment. For the TRUEST ANSWER, I have to go to the movie, "Major League" for the most accurate of quotes. I feel the same thing Manager Lou Brown said to his Center Fielder Willie Mays Hayes after his inning-ending hot dog basket catch. Brady uttered those same ending words, "Don't ever f'n do it again!" At any rate, it was an overall disappointing NFL season for us (despite hitting both GOY's) as we hit a decade low 52.2% including all the bad totals plays (these are sucker bets & we won't go there next year). But basketball is KING once again as we're having another hot NBA season (perfect thus far) but need to pick it up a few notches by the NCAA tournament for college baskets. Hang in there as we will once again rule winter sports (see last season's NHL-NBA-NCAABB) just in time for MLB to kick in by late April (we gauge teams during the early going more than putting up blind hunches). I hope you enjoyed our CFB season (hit an amazing 60% this season) & will be back next year as we've always came back BIG off an off NFL year. Continued success to all faithful readers, Mike Handzelek
 

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