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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 8 Analysis/Review/Quick Notes

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 8 Analysis/Review/Quick Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Nov 2, 2023
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Sunday, October 29, 2023 Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) - 8:20 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9.5/-110 Los Angeles Chargers Rating: 6* Mike's Later Game (WIN) While MANY are taking the Chargers not being good in the role of BIG favorite (0-3-1 ATS), I'm not a fan of playing EXACT numbers unless there's an over-whelming edge. I'm ALSO not a fan of comparing scores. Yes, the Chargers just edged the Raiders 24-17 while the Bears manhandled Las Vegas last week 30-12. It appears Bears' opening day QB Justin Fields will remain out with a thumb injury 1 more week. This gives away once again for the unsung, undrafted rookie sensation out of Shepherd U. Tyson Bagent (see more article on him for Week 7) who played great versus the Raiders going 21-for-29 for 150 yards. He's the 1st Bears' QB to win his 1st NFL start since Craig Krenzel did it 19 seasons ago. But let's not get TOO far ahead of this situation. What we DO have is a DESPERATE Chargers team in MUST-WIN mode @ 2-4 SU taking on a 2nd-year HC in Matt Eberflus whose overall SU record thus far is 5-19. While Los Angeles may not have the most intelligent HC in the world in Brandon Staley (21-20 SU in 3 seasons overall), they DO HAVE a slinging QB in Justin Herbert, a dual-threat tandem of RB's featuring Austin Ekeler & Joshua Kelley plus an excellent WR duo in Keenan Allen & Joshua Palmer (check status). Herbert has to be on the attack versus a Chicago secondary NOT @ full strength. last time they were off a double loss, they responded well in Week 3 with a 28-24 win @ Minnesota (now 5-1 ATS under Staley off consecutive SU losses). My bottom line points DIRECTLY to the rookie on the road theory where we look for a green QB on the road facing a tough defense. The Chargers' defense come in with 22 sacks (rank 7th) matches up nicely as Chicago QB's have been sacked 27 times (rank 30th) thus far. Crunching the numbers further show Da Bears are not only 0-5 SU & ATS off a SU win but are a no-show-at-the-window 0-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit SU win. Other number show the Monsters from the Midway are just 1-5 ATS before New Orleans & just 1-5 versus the number versus the AFC West. The turnover tells an ADVANTAGE L.A. as they hold a +5 to -3 edge in that category. The DAGGER for us has to be L.A. DC Derrick Ansley 3-4 scheme (rank 8th is sack %) should get penetration on a weaker Bears' O-Line with team sack-leader & OLB Khalil Mack (7 sacks), OLB Joey Bosa (3 sacks) & Morgan Fox (5 sacks). While the Chargers' "D" is a mediocre 15th in YPP (Yards Per Point), Chicago's defense ranks a near-last 30th in that category. Let's jet into SoFi Stadium in Inglewood for this Sunday Night prime-timer to play the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (buying to -2 @ -360) for 6 Stars & in a 2-Teamer with the Seattle Seahawks + 4 1/2 off the buy @ a nifty -143 odds. Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-110 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 7* Mike's Inter-Conference Game of the Week (WIN) There's many thing to take into account here including turnovers. The Brownies come in @ an un-impressive -6 ratio compared to Seattle's +1. While it looks like Cleveland's QB will be P.J. Walker (zero TD's & 3 INT's in 2 weeks), let's NOT rule out HC Kevin Stefanski taking a chance with the mobile rookie out of UCLA in Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Let's also not forget this team went 7-10 SU with RB Nick Chubb last season. Another high-end stat we have to take into account is HOW the Browns' defense has performed on the road. Yes, they're ranked # 1 in total defense & #1 versus the pass in the NFL. However, their 2 lone road games has told quite a different story. They've faced a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 31st in total "O" & 28th rushing but lost 26-22. Last week, they took on a Colts' squad who gashed them for another 38 & should have lost if not given the high end of judgment calls. So now Cleveland goes on the road in back-to-back weeks (they're also 0-5-2 ATS in that situation) & travels cross-country with a defense giving up 32 PPG. There's NO DOUBT that HC Pete Carroll will know where the best edge-rusher in the NFL will be in DE Myles Garrett (leads team with 7.5 sacks). I love the fact that the Seahawks "O" had a flat "D" game turning it over 3 times versus division rival Arizona last week. They've shown to flip the switch the following week on an offense in the Top 10 of the NFL scoring 24 PPG. The Seattle defense is on the upswing as they've given up FEWER than 250 total yards in their last 3 in giving up a stingy 10 PPG. They sit 4th in yards per play & relinquish 87 yards on the ground per game ranking 6th in the NFL. Yes, it's tough to lose edge-rusher Uchenna Nwosu for the season last week (Frank Clark was just signed), but the Hawks' secondary looks like the best of the NFC. My bottom line says the Browns' defense on the road is giving up a TD 75% of the time when their opponent reaches the red zone. That's NOT an indication for a team who looks to get separation for a comfortable "W". One more intangible that will hurt the Browns' "D" is playing on an off-surface fast track. They struggled against QB Gardner Minshew & Indianapolis on it last week giving up 456 total yards. Let's move it on up to the pacific northwest to Lumen Field in Washington to play the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (buying to + 4 1/2 @ -380) as my 7 Star Inter-Conference Game of the Week. We'll also grab them for the 1st leg & put them with the Los Angeles Chargers buying to -2 @ a nifty payback of -143! QUICK NOTES: Week 8 saw a near-flawless Joe Borrow dissect the Niners defense for 400 yards on the way to a convincing 31-17 win @ SF! We also witnessed a confused Kansas City offense (just 275 total yards) with Pat Mahomes turning it over 5 times in a stunning 24-9 Broncos' win in Denver (1st win over KC since 2015!). Cee Dee Lamb looked un-coverable in the Cowboys' 43-20 victory over the Rams in Texas (Stafford injures thumb). It looked liked the Vikes were turning their season around but suddenly their QB Kirk Cousins tears his Achilles & is lost for the season in a 24-10 road win in Green Bay. In a battle of stone age offenses, how about the Jets 13-10 OT win over the Giants. For those who watched, both teams combined for a record 24 punts. It looked like an NFL game when the Orange/Newark Tornadoes fielded teams back in 1929-30. At any rate, let's keep a keen eye on matchups this coming weekend. They'll be a lot of in-experienced or rusty QB's on the field. This past Sunday saw Tommy DeVito, Brett Rypien, Taylor Heinicke, Tyson Bagent, Will Levis & Mitchell Trubisky get a fair share of playing time. It was ANOTHER excellent week as I pushed the season record to 20-1 covering the number by a combined 23 1/2 points in 2 games. Stay tuned as I'll be selecting ONLY sharp lines @ key numbers. You won't see this too much elsewhere because it's a newer concept ahead of the curve. My motivation will stay sharp because of the bashers, haters & faders who motivate me to the hilt. Expect success & no backing down until they show respect for the process. So far, negativity & skepticism still rein despite the thousands ahead. That's ok by me. Let's see where it takes us for NFL Week 9! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 20-1 for 95% +13,400 units Mike's CFB/NFL Combined Record: 30-4 for 88% + 15,830 units Mike's Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlays Private Plays: 6-2 for 75% + 2,125 units Mike's Overall Total Units Record: + 17,955 units
 


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