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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 6 Analysis/Review/Quick Notes

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 6 Analysis/Review/Quick Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Oct 19, 2023
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Monday, October 16, 2023 Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -1.5/-110 Dallas Cowboys Rating: 8* 3rd Leg 3-Team NFL Parlay (WIN) + 800 units Since both of the other legs will already be in the books, this opens the realm of possibilities & EDGES that will be created before this game is even played. The Dallas game plan is basic. Give the ball to RB Tony Pollard (averaging a dependable 4.2 YPR with 340 yards & 2 TD's) & then expose the worst defensive pass defense in the NFL (yielding a whopping 300 YPG) in the Chargers. There will be no over-reaction here after the Cowboys were more than humbled by the best team & defense in the NFL with the San Francisco 49ers. Dallas stays on the west coast in Cali for a 2nd week but with a very bad taste in their mouths from that 42-10 drubbing (their worst defeat in 10 years).Yes, Los Angeles is off their bye week & should have RB Austin Ekeler back in the backfield. However, I'm a defensive guy & DC Dan Quinn has been the MASTER over the long haul & will be out to prove he can best his "D" over new Chargers' OC Kellen Moore who called plays for the Cowboys the past 4 seasons before taking the duties from Jason Garrett. My bottom line says Dallas should control the line of scrimmage & Quinn should apply pressure on an injured Herbert (fractured left finger in the Las Vegas game 2 weeks ago) throughout. Remember, America's Team has sprung back nicely after their last 11 losses where they've come back to go a perfect 8-0 ATS. Dallas has a defense not only ranked 5th overall in total defense but is only 2nd to Cleveland as the best in the NFL in passing defense. In the numbers also reveals the Cowboys being 5-0 SU & ATS when travelling on Monday night when coming off a loss of 14 or more. When they have a roadie AND coming off an away game, they're a take-me-to-the-window 9-1 SU & ATS IF they're off a loss. For those thinking Los Angeles does well off a bye in prime time Monday-nighters, think again! They've gone just 1-4 SU & spreadwise their past 5 instances & that total goes to a worse 1-5-1 versus the number when @ home in a non-divisional game with a team off a SU loss. I just feel it's going to be hard for a Dallas squad to lay 2 eggs in a row & lose by double-digits. Let's get set to travel to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to play the DALLAS COWBOYS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my Last Leg/3 Team Parlay with Baltimore + 7 1/2 & Atlanta + 7 1/2 @ a nifty -124! Sunday, October 15, 2023 Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -1.5/-110 Atlanta Falcons Rating: 8* Mike's 2nd Leg NFL 3-Team Parlay (LOSS by 1/2 POINT) -400 X 8 Stars -3200 units The Commanders CLEARLY have defensive issues that were evident in falling behind the Bears 27-3 @ the half last Thursday. 25-year veteran DC Jack Del Rio is having a tough time with his personnel in stopping the run (ranking 23rd & falling) & is 25th in total "D" for a team that hasn't had a winning season since they called themselves Redskins. It doesn't seem like HC Ron Rivera has a firm grasp on significant issues that must be corrected in order to seriously compete for a NFC Wild Card. The Commies' "D" ranks LAST in the NFL in yielding plays for 25+ yards with 16. It's tough to back a team that's allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt & 4.8 yards per rush. I love the fact that Atlanta is home here & coming in with revenge for a 19-13 loss to Washington @ rainy FedEx Field last November. However, these teams have came along way since that day which saw a Marcus Mariota vs. Taylor Heinicke matchup. When we look @ the Falcons defense, they've given up a super-low 10.6 PPG over their past 3 & rank 7th in total defense & 7th against the run. DC Ryan Nielsen has his hybrid 3-4 scheme humming since they've held their last 4 opponents to a season-low or 2nd-low yardage output. This "D" is SALIVATING this week as they get to face Sam "rookie on the road" Howell whose been sacked an NFL-high 29 times along with throwing 6 INT's. Let's crunch some numbers! The Commanders aren't doing well "In The Stats" ITS dropping the past 4 in total yardage. Their lone advantage was @ FedEx versus an offensively-challenged Arizona team that's ranked 29th in passing "O". Let's take into account Falcons' QB Desmond Ridder who racked up 329 passing yards, wasn't sacked & engineered a game-winning drive last week versus Houston. Ridder has a decent ground game for balance with rookie sensation Bijan Robinson gashing defenses for 5.4 yards a pop this season as well as snagging down 21 receptions for 146 yards & 2 TD's. Ridder is also a nifty 5-0 SU @ home in since starting for the Dirty Birds. The DAGGER for us has to be looking @ Ridder's SU overall CFB & NFL career when @ home. Since the start of his Cincinnati Bearcats' career til' now, he sits a take-me-back-to-the-window 28-0 SU! Here's where we'll play the 2nd Leg. in game 2 of a 3-Team Parlay, we'll play 8 Stars on the ATLANTA FALCONS (buying to + 7 1/2) teamed with Baltimore + 7 1/2 & Dallas + 7 1/2 for a decent -124 payback! Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 9:30 AM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -5.5/-110 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 8* Mike's Earlybird Special 3-Team Parlay (WIN) +800 units The Ravens aren't as bad as they've played the past few weeks. Things are going to change with this change of venue. Baltimore knows Tennessee tries to pass on early downs & uses play action in hope of alleviating pressure off of a challenged offensive line (28th in protection the QB/sack rate). The Ravens' "D" should find a way to stifle the inconsistent Tennessee offense (24th in total offense & 26th in scoring). Other issues for the Titans have to be their defensive front that were gashed for 193 yards @ 5.6 yards per attempt by AFC South Division rival Indianapolis. Injuries to DL personnel like NT Teair Tart & DTJeffrey Simmons will make things difficult to stop dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson this time around. I'm looking for the Purple & Black defense to dictate here as they're ranked a strong 2nd in total "D" & 2nd in defensive scoring in the NFL. face it, this ravens' squad isn't that far away from actually being 5-0 despite offensive backfield issues. Let's go to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS buying to + 7 1/2 along with the Atlanta Falcons (buying to + 7 1/2) & the Dallas Cowboys (buying to + 7 1/2 on MNF) @ -124 for an NFL 3-Team Parlay! QUICK NOTES: It's tough to lose a game when the team you've played on wins the 1st downs war 25 to 13 while out-gaining their opponent 402 to 193. Nevertheless, if HC Arthur "No common sense" Smith decides to go for 2 down 8 instead of kicking the PAT. The idea is to WAIT for the opposing defense to be exhausted after a TD drive THEN go for 2 to win it IF that's the strategy. So we lose the game by a 1/2-point & the 15-game winning streak to start the season comes crashing to an end. Anew streak started with Dallas on Monday so it didn't take long to start another one. The Customer-Driven Question of the Day involves the Lions who have w on 13 out of their last 16 games SU over the last 2 seasons overlapped. The Question: When was the last time Detroit was close to being this good over that same stretch? Answer: Detroit's 1960-61 team of HC George Wilson. Wilson was also the 1st coach of the expansion Miami Dolphins in 1966. This team was super-talented & this was overwhelmingly true on the defensive side of the ball. They played @ Briggs Stadium (re-named Tiger Stadium, it was on Michigan Avenue & they shared the facility with the Detroit Tigers) & one of their main defensive coaches was none other than HOF'er Don Shula, who coached the only modern era undefeated NFL team from start to finish. The team was LOADED with other HOF'ers as well. There was DT Alex Karras (Iowa), key cog & MLB Joe Schmidt (Pitt),LCB Richard "Night Train" Lane (Western Nebraska CC), RCB Dick LeBeau (Ohio State) & FS Yale Lary (Texas A&M) who all dominated & stepped it up for a team lacking offensive firepower. A tremendous thanks to all friends, family, subscribers, co-workers, guys from Northwest, King's & the County who believe in the process! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 16-1 for 94% + 10,600 units Mike's CFB & NFL Combined Seasonal Record: 24-3 for 89% + 13,250 units Mike's NFL Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlays Private Plays: 5-1 for 83% + 2,025 units 2023-24 Grand Total: + 15,275 units

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