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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 5 Analysis/Review

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 5 Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Oct 8, 2023
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Sunday, October 08, 2023 Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) 1:00 PM EDT Atlanta Falcons Premium Pick YouWager Play Title: Mike's 1st Leg NFL Parlay Play Selected: Point Spread: -2.5/-110 Rating: 8* (WIN) Analysis: Here we have a deliberate offense under the direction of OC Dave Ragone that's centered around a power running game that features premier RB & rookie out of Texas Bijan Robinson. Robinson is a dual threat whether running the football (53 rushes for 318 yards) or catching it out of the backfield (19 receptions for 134 yards & 1 TD). Besides having Robinson, the Falcons have another excellent runner for the 1-2 punch in Tyler Algeier whose been hitting the hole with authority (45 rushes for 145 yards & 2 TD's, 6 catches for 32 yards). QB Desmond Ridder hasn't dazzled but has 2 dependable TE's to hit in 12-personnel formations with Kyle Pitts (11 catches for 121 yards) & Jonnu Smith (15 snags for 179 yards). While Ridder has performed miserably on the road, his home SU record sits @ 4-0. This squad comes in healthy (everyone practiced Wednesday) & gets a Houston team off a physical game (5 injuries) with Pittsburgh where they played flawless versus a un-focused Steelers' team seeing hated Baltimore just ahead. On the flip side, Houston rookie QB C.J. Stroud has looked excellent through the air with 1,212 passing yards (2nd to Cam Newton) through 4 games & should get a share of hookups with wideout Nico Collins (22 catches for 428 yards & 3 TD's). However, they've faced the 22nd & 26th best pass defense in Jacksonville & Pittsburgh the last 2 games they've won. They now take on a much improved Falcons' "D" under DC Ryan Nielsen. They'll dress up in an aggressive 3-4 alignment that ranks 5th versus the pass & 7th in total defense. I believe we're getting value on the home team here as we get them off a 3 TO game in London in which they still limited the Jaguars to 23 points. I also LOVE to play against the "rookie on the road" & this onw fits the mold. Many prognosticators will over-react after last week. In reality, it's @ Atlanta ON THE ROAD is where they've struggled. They remain WINLESS since Week 3 last year (0-8 SU)! My bottom line says Houston doesn't have a good run defense which should take tremendous pressure off Ridder in a game where it should be nip n' tuck throughout. We'll gladly go to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia to play the ATLANTA FALCONS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) for 8 Stars as my 1st Leg NFL Parlay teamed with Detroit ML -480 & the New York Jets + 14 1/2 -770 for a -132 play as a 3-Teamer Parlay! Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) 1:00 PM EDT Detroit Lions Premium Pick YouWager Play Title: Mike's 2nd Leg NFL 3-Team Parlay Play Selected: Point Spread: -9.5/-110 Rating: 9* (WIN) Analysis: While Carolina's coaches were very familiar with what Minnesota was going to throw @ the last week, that won't be the case here! The Panthers' rookie out of Alabama QB Bryce Young ranks 30th with a dismal 75 passer rating (a 2/2 TD/INT ratio) & NOW gets to take on an Aaron Glenn circle the wagons "D" that's registered 12 sacks in the last 2 weeks, ranks 4th in defensive yards per play, 1st against the run & are 4th in total "D". The 3-1 SU & NFC North-leading Detroit squad takes on a struggling Carolina offense ranking both 25th in total offense & 25th in yards per point. Do the Lions really take the foot off the gas here? I don't think so since this will be the ONLY time they'll be in front of the home fans in a 4-week stretch. They're CLEARLY the healthier team who take on an 0-4 SU squad (only 1 of 164 teams made the playoffs with that kind of start-Bobby Ross' 92' SD Chargers) that has multiple defensive injuries (rank 26th versus the run), a weak offensive line (rank 23rd in protecting the QB-yielded 14 sacks) & struggle to run the ball (rank 22nd). The Lions' "D" have the chance to get creative in coverage unleashing both DT Alim McNeill & DE Aidan Hutchinson (combined for 5 1/2 sacks) on another "rookie on the road" QB. Speaking of QB's, Detroit has one of the best with Jared Goff (1,029 passing yards, a 6/3 TD/INT ratio & has completed passes @ a high 69.5% clip) who has many playmakers @ his disposal with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (26 receptions for 331 yards & 2 TD's), rookie TE out of Iowa Sam LaPorta (22 catches for 242 yards & 1 TD) & dependable RB's David Montgomery (252 yards rushing, 5 TD's) & Jahmyr Gibbs (179 yards rushing, 70 yards receiving). My bottom line says having the addition of 2-year wideout Jameson Williams (1st game this season & coming off a 4-game suspension) is ANOTHER major plus for Detroit who now has a full arsenal to throw @ the Black Cats. There's also the matter of sweet revenge. Yes, it was these same Panthers who KNOCKED the Lions out of the playoff hunt last December @ Carolina by a 37-23 margin. In the numbers show Detroit has been a covering MACHINE going 12-2 ATS their last 14 & a lights-out 15-5 their last 20 spreadwise in Michigan. The Black cats don't have Luke Kuechly roaming the middle anymore & it shows considering they've yielded at least 130+ rushing yards in each game thus far. Let's go to Ford Field to play 9 Stars on the DETROIT LIONS (on the ML @ -480) as my 2nd Leg NFL 3-team parlay with Atlanta + 7 1/2 -345 & the NY Jets + 14 1/2 -770 @ a payback of -132. New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) 4:25 PM EDT New York Jets Premium Pick YouWager Play Title: Mike's 3rd Leg NFL 3-Team Parlay Play Selected: Point Spread: +2.5/-105 Rating: 8* (WIN) Analysis: Many have targeted this game as a battle of wits or bad blood with Denver HC Sean Payton (1-3 SU with his new team) facing off with Jets' OC Nathaniel Hackett (who was freshly fired by Denver as HC last season, also 1-3 SU with his new team & was ripped back in July by Payton publicly as one of the worst coaching jobs done in Denver). It's also a battle of the Wilson's with Denver QB Russell Wilson (9/2 TD/INT ratio) against the upstart New York signal-called Zach Wilson (4/4 TD/INT ratio). What I just CAN'T get past is the Broncos' defense that's ranked LAST (32nd) in total defense & against the run (yielding a whopping 176 YPG-5.6 YPR on the ground-521 yards the past 2 weeks!). On the flip side, the Jets have an under-achieving offense that's going to break out soon. 2nd-year man out of Ohio State Garrett Wilson (a 3rd Wilson in this game with 21 catches for 225 yards & 2 TD's) should make his presence felt along with a ground n' pound running game led by Breece Hall (210 rushing yards, 42 receiving yards) along with journeyman Dalvin Cook (74 rushing & 44 receiving yards) & Michael Carter. They now take on a defense that's allowing their opponents to complete 78.1% of their passes with an opponent QB rating of an absurdly-high 152.3. Let's face it, the Broncos had to come from 21 points behind just to get their lone victory of the season. They also haven't faced 1 quality defense in 4 games. My bottom line says when the Jets get a lead, I feel Russell Wilson is prone to mistakes if forcing it down the field versus New York's dynamic duo corners of Sauce Gardner & D.J. Reed. Remember, Zach Wilson DOESN'T have to face the #1 & #2 sack percentage defenses of Dallas & Buffalo he's already faced! This is a GIGANTIC drop down in class from what the 3rd-year man out of BYU has faced. In the numbers show these SAME Broncos are a ticket-ripping 1-14 versus the number as chalk if they were ALSO a favorite in their previous game. If playing against that situation, opposing teams are also a take-me-back-to-the-window 12-0 versus the number if Denver has at least 1 SU loss on the season. With Broncos' top RB Jevone Williams getting a banged up hip injury versus Chicago, they look to be a little on-dimensional here. Let's go to Empower Field @ Mile High to play the NEW YORK JETS for 8 Stars @ + 14 1/2 -770 for the 3rd leg of the parlay AND a little pasta sprinkled on the ML! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 14-0 for 100% + 12,200 units NFL/CFB Combined Overall Record: 21-2 for 91% +14,050 units + NFL Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlays - Private Plays - 5-0 for 100% +2,100 units
 


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