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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 4 Analysis/Review

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 4 Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Oct 3, 2023
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Monday, October 02, 2023 Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants (NFL) - 8:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -2.5/-120 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 8* Mike's 3rd Leg - NFL 3-Team Plus Money Parlay (WIN) I saw 3 teams that stuck out this weekend & this is the 3rd & final one. Skipping back to last year, we saw a 6-1 hotter than a pistol Giants' squad riding a 4-game winning streak into Seattle & came away 14-point losers, 27-13. The lone TD came when NY recovered a muffed punt on the Seattle 2 & took it in shortly after. Hey, that's when New York was clicking on all cylinders. NOW, we get a banged up G-Men team (RB Saquon Barkley is listed as doubtful with a high ankle sprain-backup Matt Breida gets the start & having LT Andrew Thomas & LG Ben Bredeson banged up) who could easily be 0-3 SU if not for a miracle second-half comeback @ Arizona. In 12 quarters (144 minutes of action), the Giants have trailed in all except for 19 seconds. As a result of the Barkley & offensive line injuries, Seattle DC Clint Hurtt will be freed up to run many different looks @ attacking QB Daniel Jones (2/4 TD/INT ratio) to collapse the pocket (including a spy back on him) from a variety of gaps. The flip side of the coin looks promising for Seahawks' QB Geno Smith (4/1 TD/INT ratio who got snubbed by the Jets earlier in his career) who will have many different playmakers @ his disposal that include RB Kenneth Walker (204 rushing yards, 4 TD's & 73 more receiving yards), WR D.K. Metcalf (234 yards receiving, 1 TD) & Tyler Lockett (103 yards in receptions, 2 TD's). If the Giants expect to compete, they have to generate pressure on Smith using LB Kayvon Thibodeaux & other edge rushers in DC Wink Martindale's blitz packages. My bottom line says it's going to be super-hard for New York (32nd in Defensive Yards Per Point), 31st in scoring @ 14 PPG, 30th in points allowed @ 33 PPG to separate from a Pete Carroll coached squad that's 4th in scoring @ 29 PPG. When NY was clicking last season, their first 6 wins were ALL ONE-SCORE affairs which is pointing us in ONE direction. That's forcing Big Blue not only to win but win by double-digits. Scheduling advantage Seattle since they have a bye week on deck while NY has to face 2 AFC high-octane offenses with Miami & Buffalo. Because Seattle has scored 74 points the past 2 weeks, their output should be low which makes this a recipe for an ugly game. Nevertheless, we'll go to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ to play 8 Stars on the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (buying to +8 @ -455) as the 3rd Leg -NFL 3-Team Plus Money Parlay already teamed with Carolina + 10 1/2 @ -275 & the Los Angeles Rams + 7 1/2 @ -355 for a nifty +117 payback! Sunday, October 01, 2023 Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +4.5/-110 Carolina Panthers Rating: 8* Mike's Earlybird 1st Leg - 3 Team NFL Plus Money Parlay (WIN off the BUY) There's many things pointing into the direction of the Carolina side. One thing is the lack of clock management by Minnesota HC Kevin (cloned from Rams' HC Sean McVay) O'Connell. I also feel that Panthers' beast-mode OLB Brian Burns (team sack leader) should have the upper hand on penetrating into the backfield versus the Vikings' LT Christian Darrisaw. This is a classic battle of a one-dimensional Minny-ha-ha squad (O'Connell's play selection is close to 75% pass, 25% run?) versus a Top 10 pass defense (3-4 alignment) under the direction of 16-year NFL vet & DC Ejiro Evero. Familiarity is KING as Evero also coached with O'Connell when he was calling the plays for the LA Rams. C'mon, we have the opportunity to take a home underdog with the better defense (Panthers' allow .4 yards per play than Minny) versus a team ranked 31st in rushing? When on the road, rushing is usually a pre-requisite for success. I'm also banking on the Cats' starting rookie QB Bryce Young again who'll be out to prove he belongs to getting a grasp on the offense HC Frank Reich. To be successful, Carolina has to run the ball. With Young in there, they've averaged 127 YPG on the ground. With Andy Dalton last week, that plummeted to 44. The Panthers' offense will get a badly-needed BOOST with Young back (10.2 YPR) teaming up with former Penn Stater Miles Sanders (team-leader with 139 yards rushing along with 68 receiving). My bottom line says we'll also look @ the game between these 2 like 0-3 desperate teams versus Minnesota 2 seasons ago. Like the 28-27 barnburner won by the Vikes the previous year, this one went to OT before the Purple People Eaters outlasted them again 34-28. In the numbers show Carolina is a solid 5-1 as a home dog in this series while the Purple Gang chimes in @ a no-show 1-6 versus the number versus NFC South teams. Added to the motivation, we'll ALSO see ex-Vikings WR catching passes for the Panthers & OUT to prove he can burn some DB's like premier wideout Justin Jefferson does for Minnesota now. Despite Jefferson's outstanding 458 yards in receptions this year, he's caught just 1 TD pass. Look for the Black Cats to use CB's CJ Henderson & Donte Jackson off & on him to limit a clump of big plays. I further the Vikings are just getting into the bad habit of CREATING encounters too tough to overcome in the end. Here's where we'll go for the Earlybird. We're jetting to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to play the CAROLINA PANTHERS for 8 Stars (buying to + 10 1/2 @ -275 for my 1st Leg - 3 Team NFL Plus Money Parlay teamed up with the Los Angeles Rams @ + 71/2 -335 & the Seattle Seahawks +8 @ -455 for an excellent payback of +117! Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +0/-110 Los Angeles Rams Rating: 9* 2nd Leg 3-Team NFL Plus Money Parlay (WIN) Being a Colts' fan, I know (even the great Peyton Manning) this squad always have trouble facing a 3-4 defensive scheme. Guess what? Here's comes All-Pro DT Aaron Donald running right @ rookie QB Anthony Richardson (will play with successfully passing concussion protocol) who also comes in with just 1/2 sack this season. I'm expecting a breakout game from him considering Indianapolis is a HUGE dropdown in talent from already facing the likes of the familiar offenses of the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers & the always tough Cincinnati Bengals. Remember, these 2 met on this field just 2 seasons ago with the Rams on the high end of a 27-24 decision as 4-point favorites. While Richardson is the speedier & more flashy QB for the Horseshoes, he's ALSO prone to mistakes (still without key cog & RB Jonathan Taylor) AND just had his starting C Ryan Kelly in concussion protocol last week in their physical game with the Baltimore Ravens. Both teams are coming in from different angles with Indianapolis feeling fat & happy on top of the AFC South all alone @ 2-1. Los Angeles is a different story since they're 1-2 (two 1-score losses) & have the Philadelphia Eagles immediately on deck. With 2 more losses, HC Sean McVay knows the season is pretty much over in the new "Black N' Blue" Division of the NFC West. Let's move on to point out some pretty clear numbers that speak for themselves. The Rams rank 3rd on offense & 6th on defense after facing a brutal 3-game schedule to open the season. The Colts with a softer schedule after 3 games rank 20th on offense & 23rd on defense. Here's a key system. Indianapolis has gone just 5-10 Su 7 ATS versus non-divisional teams when following consecutive underdog wins. System #2 looks @ the Shoes' again who are a ticket-ripping 0-8-1 ATS @ home when coming off consecutive wins both SU & ATS. The DAGGER for us has to be Rams' HC McVay is a take-me-to-the-window 5-0 career versus the number when traveling & coming off a SU loss versus a squad coming off a SU win as an underdog. My bottom line says LA still has the better skill position players than Indy with QB Matthew Stafford, WR's Puka Nacua (rookie sensation out of BYU with 266 receiving yards) & Tutu Atwell (196 yards receiving) & RB Kyren Williams (104 yards rushing & 4 total TD's). Here's where we're going in this game. We're invade Lucas Oil Stadium in Indiana to play the LOS ANGELES RAMS for 9 Stars (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -335) as my 2 Leg 3-Team NFL Plus Money Parlay teamed with Carolina + 10 1/2 -275 & Seattle +8 @ -455 for a nifty +117 payback! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Record: 11-0 for 100% +9700 units NFL/CFB Combined Overall Record: 17-2 for 89% +10650 units + NFL Hi-Roller 3/4 + Team Parlays -Private Plays 4-0 for 100% +1700 units

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