Sunday, September 24, 2023 Denver Broncos vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6/-110 Miami Dolphins Rating: 8* Mike's Earlybird & 1st Leg of Parlay Selection (WIN) Don't ready too much into the Jayson waddle injury on the Miami side here. This game will be dictated in the trenches. This is especially true on defense where the Broncos "D" (ranked 21st versus the pass) will try (and I do mean try) for 4 quarters to position their defensive backs in areas INSIDE the numbers forcing Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa to mostly force plays outside to WR Tyreek Hill & other wideouts. CB Pat Surtain II will have his hands full up against Hill. I feel Tagovailoa is experienced enough to smartly spread the ball around whether its stretching out TE Durham Smythe or RB Raheem Mostert. On the flip side, we have an aged QB Russell Wilson trying to get the ball to WR's Courtland Sutton & when in Jerry Jeudy. I look for DC Vic Fangio to show multiple looks with his 3-4 alignment & disguise pressure coming from the outside. In 2 games, 8 different Dolphins' defenders have already figured in the sack total. There's no doubt that Denver has played right around the number thus far under new HC Sean Payton. However, it's simply hard to BACK a team that's lost an NFL record 9 straight games after leading at the half as well as losing their last 11 true road games in a row. It's tough to win consistently when your leading rusher is Russell Wilson. Remember, Miami's DC Fangio was Denver's HC the past 3 seasons & just got the axe. No matter what was said in his press conference, he's looking to embarrass his former team who pretty much blamed him for their lack of success. Fangio has been a gamer ever since he left his comfy confines of Dunmore High School back in 81' where he was DC under the legendary Jack Menzes. There's 2 other things to take into account. This will be the ONLY home game for Miami in their first 4 weeks of the regular season. Denver's last trip (just before Fangio & with Vance Joseph) to South Beach saw them leave after getting pasted 35-9 as 2-point road favorites. My bottom line says it's hard to play the Broncos' side who continue to commit unforced turnovers. They face a Miami squad that's #1 in total offense & is scoring 30 PPG. The Dolphins' "D" is 9th in sacks & the Broncos' offense is bottom tier in protection (22nd). With taking rushing into account & sack pressures, that's already 3 of 5 key areas where W's usually take place. In closing, let's look @ Miami HC Mike McDaniel. So how did he fare his 1st 3 regular season games last season? He went 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS & his team put up 83 points versus the likes of defenses like New England, Baltimore & Buffalo. Let's storm into Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens to play 8 Stars on the MIAMI DOLPHINS (buying to a key -1) as my Earlybird & 1st Leg of a 2-Team Parlay Selection! Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -5/-110 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 8* Mike's Later Game Gem + 2nd leg of 2-Team Parlay (WIN) I'm not sure if 0-2 SU Carolina has recovered from trading away their best wideout D.J. Moore) now with the Chicago Bears. But is rookie QB & #1 overall draft pick out of Alabama Bryce Young the answer either? We won't find out today because it looks like veteran journeyman & QB Andy The Red Rifle" Dalton gets the nod versus a weaker Seattle passing "D" instead of the rookie (out with an ankle injury) whose amassed just 299 passing yards & a 2/2 TD/INT ratio in 2 career starts. Today, it's tough to ignore a 1-1 SU Seattle squad whose 28-11 ATS their last 39 home games & is facing a rebuilding Panthers' team in the beginning phase traveling cross-country on a short week after their Monday night defeat to the New Orleans Saints 20-17 which wasn't as close as the score indicated. Seahawks' HC Pere Carroll doesn't have to remind his troops what happened last season in Game 13 when they came out on the short end of a 30-24 score as 3 1/2-point home favorites. Carroll's squad had a slow start against the Lions but rallied for 30 2nd half/OT points & a 37-31 win. QB Geno Smith has a 3/0 TD/INT ratio & is consistently hooking up with WR Tyler Lockett (10 receptions for 69 yards & 2 TD's), WR DK Metcalf (9 receptions, 122 yards & 1 TD) & is getting good balance from RB Kenneth Walker, III (107 rushing yards & 2 TD's). My bottom line says even though the Carolina "D" appeared it didn't miss their best CB Jaycee Horn (out indefinitely with a hamstring injury suffered in Week 1 @ Atlanta. In addition, top sacker & OLB Brian Burns won't be @ 100% but will be playing with ankle injury. Look for Carroll to push the pace & force a one-dimensional Carolina offense to keep pace. DE's Dre'mont Jones & Mario Edwards, Jr. need to keep pace with NT Jarran Reed's success on the interior front line for this one to turn into a blow out. Let's roll into Lumen Field in Washington to play the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (buying to -1) & to complete the 2-Team Parlay Later Game Gem for a nifty +111 payback! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 8-0 100% +7200 units NFL/CFB Combined Overall Record: 13-2 for 87% +7350 units NFL Hi-Roller 3/4+Team Parlays Private Plays: 3-0 for 100% +1050 units