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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 18 Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 18 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Jan 10, 2023
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Sunday, January 08, 2023 New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -16/-110 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Headliner Moneyliner (WIN off buy) This is a game to earn that all-important bye for the 1st week of the NFC Playoffs. I expect a lift from back-in-the-lineup QB Jalen Hurts that backup Gardner Minshew just can't give. Yes, the running game won't be the same without key cog Right-OT Lane Johnson. However, NY Giants HC Brian Daboll made it crystal clear that QB Tyrod Taylor will be utilized to the fullest in resting QB Daniel Jones as well as RB Saquon Barkley. NY has nothing to play for as they're locked in to the NFC's #6 seed with a most-likely Wild Card game @ Minnesota next week. My bottom line looks @ the Philly pass rush has been swarming as they come in with a BIG head of steam having sacked opposing QB's 6 or more times for 5 games straight (longest streak in the Super Bowl era). The oddsmakers continue to up the line so bettors put some money on the depleted Giants but the spread has no value when you get up toward 17. Since the Eagles are 10-2 ATS as home chalk, the ML is the only way to go straight up in teasers. Remember, you'd have to go back to 2013 under then-HC Chip Kelly to find a Giants' win (15 to 7 that year) in Philadelphia. The streak of another new winner for the NFC East title each season remains intact. That's the ONLY play here! We'll go to Lincoln Financial Field to lay the BIG juice on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES on the ML as my 8 Star NFL Headliner Moneyliner! Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9/-110 Cincinnati Bengals Rating: 9* Mike's Divisional Revenger (WIN) The Week 5 meeting saw Baltimore utilize the leg of K Justin Tucker to the fullest as he kicked 4 FG's (last one a 43-yd'er as time expired) in a 19-17 Ravens' nail-biter win. For this one, the best Maryland's team has to offer is a banged up with a shoulder/wrist injuries Tyler Huntley under center, or if he can't go it will be undrafted rookie Anthony Brown. Since Cincinnati has covered their past 5, I feel the line will continue to inflate. Joe Burrow & Co. is still fresh off playing less than a quarter of their cancelled game with Buffalo (they led 7-3). Baltimore has struggled without the services of QB Lamar Jackson going 4-7 SU overall including 2-5 within the AFC North (beat Pittsburgh twice). Their past 5 contests have seen the Purple & Black score less than 12 PPG. Without Lamar, they've scored just 4 TD's in 19 quarters. My bottom line says Cincinnati is playing in ticked-off mode due to the way the NFL is handling game venues for possible playoff scenarios. With the Ravens' struggling on field turf, versus winning teams & against the AFC North versus the spread, the higher probability to cash points directly @ the moneyline. I look for receivers Tee Higgins & Tyler Boyd to play with extreme emotion. Let's go to Paycor Stadium in Ohio to play the CINCINNATI BENGALS for the W on the ML & in 7-point teasers as my 9 Star Divisional Revenger! Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6/-110 Los Angeles Rams Rating: 8* Mike's 8 Star Best 2023-24 Auditioning Play (WIN) Whose really playing to earn a roster spot somewhere next season? It's none other than LA Rams' QB Baker Mayfield. He gets to play a Seattle squad that hasn't played the part in the 2nd half of the season as they come in just 2-5 SU as well as 2-5 speadwise over their past 7. Gone are the days of the real 12th man since they've gone a non-convincing 1-4 both SU & against the number their past 5 @ Lumen Field. The 1st meeting saw Geno Smith throw a late TD pass in LA for a 27-23 comeback win over the Rams with John Wolford under center. My bottom line says Mayfield (currently has the best QBR so of the 4 Rams' QB's) who was thrusted in the lineup hurriedly is still 2-2 SU, completed 67% of his passes & turns in a decent 4/1 TD/INT ratio. My bottom line says there's something about the NY Jets (HC Pete Carroll's former employer). The last 6 times immediately after Jets' affairs, the Seahawks carry a perfect 0-6 spread mark. Don't think 11-year veteran ILB Bobby Wagner of the LA Rams isn't sharing all of Carroll's tricks of the trade with his teammates on both sides of the ball. Here's where we're going. This game is meaningful since Seattle (with a win) sneaks in the playoffs with a Green Bay loss. But the Hawks' 27th-rank in overall defense makes it hard to lay any significant number versus a team looking for revenge with a QB auditioning for a job next season. Let's go to Lumen Field in Washington to play the LOS ANGELES RAMS (buying to + 11 1/2) as my 8 Star Best 2023-24 Auditioning Play! Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-110 Washington Commanders Rating: 8* NFC East Super Bowl Play (WIN) Forget about HC Ron Rivera not knowing his team was eliminated after their loss to Cleveland last week. The bigger question has to be if 3rd-string & 5th-round rookie QB Sam Howell (led the NFL in passing with 547 yards in the pre-season) is smart enough to do hot reads on the blitzing Dallas "D". We're also throwing out that 1st meeting 25-10 loss to the Cowboys because Carson Wentz was under center (They're 6-1-1 without him SU). Why he was thrown into an elimination game was a head scratcher last week. However, I do believe owner Dan Snyder was stupid for allowing a new mascot called "Major Tuddy" (a pig in Commanders' gear but inspired by the 80's attire) to penetrate the ranks. As a result, original Hog members of the team like John Riggins, Joe Jacoby, Mark May, Fred Dean & others have filed a lawsuit against Snyder to reclaim the rightful ownership of the Hogs' brand & receive a federal trademark. Stay tuned for those results. My bottom line says Washington will play their Super Bowl right here against a team that realistically knows their chances of taking the division are slim & none. Numbers reveal that the Commanders are a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking triple revenge. This blends in nicely as Dallas posts a habitually-lacking 7-18 SU & 6-19 spreadwise numbers in away season finales. Their last 9 games in the month of January have ended with them going just 1-8 ATS. Hey, DC Jack Del Rio's "D" is #1 in the NFL in 1st downs yielded per game (17.3) & are far from slouches. I just don't see the motivation for 4 quarters on the Cowboys' side. We'll gladly go to FedEx Field in Landover, MD to play the WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (buying to a key + 11 1/2) as my 8 Star NFC East Super Bowl Play! Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-110 Cleveland Browns Rating: 8* Mike's AFC Battle Royale ATS Survivor (LOSS) Let's face it. These 2 teams hate each other! Whatever kicked in for Cleveland in the 2nd half last week (out-scored Washington 21-3), QB Deshaun Watson finally looked like the QB the Browns were looking for in leading them in a positive direction. I'm not recommending a ML Dog play (Cleveland beat Pittsburgh 29-17 back in Week 3) since it was 34 years since the Browns last swept the Steelers. The big question is: "Is Cleveland motivated enough to play 4 good quarters?" The answer is "yes" since RB Nick Chubb is still alive for the rushing title as well as DE Myles Garrett looking to add on to his freakish sack numbers (45+ the past 3 seasons). My bottom line says the "Boys On The Lake" are built to control the clock (36-24 in minutes advantage in the 1st meeting) as they rushed 38 times for 171 yards. Numbers show that the Steelers are just 2-6 versus the number after allowing less than than 15 points in their previous game. The facts remain that Watson is 3-2 SU as a starter, Cleveland has beaten Pitt 3 out of their last 5 SU & the Browns' defense has limited opponents to 10 PPG over the last 3. Here's where we're going. Let's roll to Acrisure Stadium in Pennsylvania for the 143rd meeting of this series to play the CLEVELAND BROWNS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) in this rivalry as my 8 Star Battle Royale ATS Survivor! Saturday, January 07, 2023 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 9.5/-110 Las Vegas Raiders Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Pure Systems Smart Play (LOSS) This series goes WAY back to the 63' (when the Dallas Texans franchise moved to KC) when the Oakland Raiders (HC Al Davis--QB Tom Flores) nipped the Kansas City Chiefs (HC Hank Stramm-QB Len Dawson) 10-7 @ the band-boxed Frank Youell Field in Oakland. They meet for the 128th time here with KC winning the 1st battle royale 30-29 @ home back in Week 5 (LV led 20-10 @ the half). The important thing to remember is talented KC QB Pat Mahomes will play anywhere whether a #1 seed or a #3 seed. Winning this game is important but not @ risking key playmakers for the playoff drive. Is this a time to look @ a ML dog play? With the Chiefs having that knack to just get the W's, I'd say not based on Las Vegas being 2-14 SU their last 16. What we need to focus on is the oddsmakers continue to over-price the Chiefs? In their past 6 AFC West battles, KC brings in a perfect 6-0 SU record but also a perfect 0-6 ATS mark-winning outright by 4,3,1,3 ,6 & 3-point margins. Those records are kind of ironic since its ALSO the Raiders who are a perfect 6-0 versus the number when playing a winning team. Many have asked, "Why did newly-inserted/former Baylor & Auburn product & QB Jarrett Stidham look so sharp (23-for-34, 365 passing yards,3 TD's) versus San Francisco's #1 defense last week?" Because he learned the system well by spending a few recent seasons under NE HC Bill Belichick & then OC/now LV HC Josh McDaniels with the Patriots. Stidham has 3 healthy receivers now with the red-hot WR Davante Adams, WR Hunter Renfrow & TE Darren Waller. It would be nice if LV RB Josh Jacobs reconsiders & plays. But if not, McDaniels ALSO has capable RB Brandon Bolden waiting in the wings who ALSO spent 8 seasons with New England. Now let's grasp the systems! Since winning the Super Bowl, Andy "The Walrus" Reid & Co. has gone a staggering 2-27-1 spreadwise in 1-score games. If those 1-scorers were against avenging opponents, KC has gone a no-show 0-18-1 versus the number. The final one states: Take any NFL divisional home underdog in its final regular season game IF they were a playoff team last season AND if they're seeking revenge from a 60% or better winning foe. This is the 18th time this system kicks in for the past 32 seasons & it has gone a take-me-back-to-the-window 15-2 (88%) ATS. With Las Vegas also being a nice 10-3 spreadwise their last 13 divisional home games, I think we have more than something brewing! Let's go to Allegiant Stadium in Nevada to play the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (buying to a strategic + 11 1/2) as my 8 Star NFL Pure Systems Smart Play! NOTES: Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 40-29 for 58% Mike's NFL Overall Record Last 3 Seasons: 119-57 for a VegasTopDogs Best 68%
 


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