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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 18 Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 18 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Jan 10, 2022
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Sunday, January 09, 2022 Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (NFL) 1:00 PM EST Minnesota Vikings Premium Pick MyBookie Play Title: Mike's Line Mover Smart Play Play Selected: Money Line: -250 Rating: 8* (WIN) Analysis: The odds-makers realize they've made a mistake by over-compensating by pushing this line in Chicago's direction early on. Now they're forced to drive back toward the original line knowing that QB Justin Fields has been placed in COVID protocol. Good luck to the sportsbooks with netting dollar 1 on this one! This game is one between 2 eliminated teams (Bears @ 6-10 & Vikings @ 7-9) that both look to make changes with their head coaches & front-office personnel. Da Bears have won back-to-back weeks but it's not enough from preventing them from missing the playoffs for the 9th time in 11 years. Zimmer & Co. will be missing the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years. What stands out for me is Minnesota's QB Kirk Cousins had a week to rest in COVID protocol & should be raring to go for this home finale. He's likely to surpass 4,000 passing yards for the 6th time in 10 years (3,971 passing yards with a 30/7 TD/INT ratio) & will have his best deep threat on the field with WR Justin Jefferson (103 receptions for 1,509 receiving yards). This game could be just as ugly as the 1st meeting back in Week 15 when the Vikes were 17-9 winners @ Soldier Field under the Monday night lights. Despite the Bears out-gaining Minnesota 370-193 & having a 24-13 1st down edge, their 4 turnovers (3 fumbles) were hard to overcome. Cousins was also missing WR Adam Thielen like he also does this week. Minnesota rushed the ball 33 times for 132 yards which also seems to be the formula for this one. Let's get into some analytical GEMS! The first thing we need to consider is how certain teams perform the last 3 weeks in same-season rematches. The Purple People Eaters (after winning the 1st meeting) have a failing spread record @ 5-8-1 for 38.5% but show a quite different story in the SU column going a profitable 9-5 for 64.3%. Chicago comes in a perfect 0-4 ATS versus the NFC North & a no-show 1-8 versus the number AFTER allowing 250 total yards or less in their previous games. HC Matt Nagy (who actually drafted Mitchell Trubisky over Pat Mahomes?) is just 11-23 as an underdog since coming to Chi-Town & 7-13 as a road dog. On the flip side, the Vikes are a strong 28-13 ATS after being held under 90 rushing yards in their previous game & 8-1 @ home after Green Bay. They also come in a ticket-cashing 43-20 versus the number following an ATS loss 7 are 6-0 ATS off a divisional road loss. What is really eye-catching is HC Mike Zimmer whose been solid as a favorite going 52-21 SU & 36-13 SU @ home. My bottom line looks @ that key column of turnover differential. Chicago comes in with a horrible -11 in that category while Minny chimes in with a very strong +7. It's hard to take a Bears' squadron that's ranked 28th in total offense & are 32nd (an NFL worst) @ protecting the QB (whether it's Nick Foles or Andy Dalton). The Bears over-achieved last week versus the N.Y. Giants while the Vikings under-achieved versus the Packers. Look for a swing back this week as we roll to U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to play the MINNESOTA VIKINGS on the ML as my 8* Line Mover Smart Play! NOTES: While it looked ugly early on with the Vikes spotting Chicago an early 14-0 lead. Trailing 14-3, Minnesota made their halftime adjustments as Kirk Cousins (250 passing yards & no INT's) threw 3 2nd-half TD's along with CB Patrick Peterson returning a late INT 66 yards for the TD on route to a 21-point 4th-quarter & 31-17 win. As predicted, Andy Dalton & the Bears lost the turnover war again 2-0 despite an amazing +13-minutes time of possession advantage. We'll take the win & the 16-0 run to end the season. All week I was hearing how my Colts were going to destroy Jacksonville. I told them I was very nervous. Why? Because the last 6 years away from Indianapolis (now 7), Jacksonville has out-scored Indy by a lopsided 208 to 104 margin. With the Steelers' win, the Colts are off to the golf courses. I'll be back next for Wild Card Weekend where we'll have 6 games (2 Saturday, 3 Sunday & 1 Monday) with AFC & NFC 7 seeds playing @ the #2 seeds, #6 seeds tangling with the #3 seeds while #5 seeds will be taking on the #4 seeds. In closing, it's nice to hear some Vegas personalities say I can't win playing ML's & buy points. What they REALLY mean is the average bettor can't do it. I've proved for 2 consecutive regular seasons that (if you're good enough) you CAN hit over the 60% number & show a consistent profit in the NFL (over the long haul)! Mike's NFL Record Last 11 Weeks: 20-1 for a surreal 95% (16-0 Last 16 bucking 65,536 to 1 odds) Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL Overall Regular Season Record: 31-10 for a career best 76% Mike's NFL Overall Record Last 2 Regular Seasons (35 weeks): 63-22 for a career-high 74% Thanks to all my Mocanaqua, Northwest, Vegas, Atlantic City, C-House, Facebook Followers & VegasTopDogs.com subscribers who trusted my analytical process & were along for my NFL plays the past 2 championship seasons!
 


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Winning Streaks
- Rob Vinciletti: NCAAF 23-12-2 (66% for +$11930)
- Matt Fargo: NFL 16-5 (77% for +$10550)
- Rob Vinciletti: NFL 16-5-2 (77% for +$10450)
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- Chase Diamond: NFL 12-3-1 (80% for +$8700)
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