Sunday, January 07, 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3.5/-120 Tennessee Titans Rating: 9* Mike's Strongest Play On The Board (WIN) There's more than a few reasons WHY Tennessee is the right side. We have a motivated HC in Mike Vrabel (maybe showcasing himself for the the Patriots' job) whose 7-4 SU versus Jacksonville & should finally have QB Ryan Tannehill (82-73 SU as an NFL starter) under center for a possible swan song. He gets to take on a team who looks like they're in freefall the past 5 weeks (1-4 SU & do we really hold the Carolina win as having any weight?) with a dinged-up QB in Trevor Lawrence (shoulder injury). In addition, playmaking WR Christian Kirk is also banged up as well with a core muscle injury. Let's examine how the Titans have played @ home. They're 4-3 SU (true home games) with all losses by 3 including 2 of them in OT. Remember, Lawrence (whose just 20-29 SU as an NFL starter) had a career 4 TD day in meeting 1 in Florida's warm weather when he was 100% healthy. But what sets this game apart for me is the pass rush. DL Denico Autry (11 1/2 sacks) & OLB Harold Landry (10 1/2 sacks) will definitely be harder to stop than Jacksonville top sack man Josh Allen (16 1/2 sacks). In sack percentage, Jax ranks a back-of-the-pack 27th while Nashville's Finest chimes in @ 8th. Now let's get into some very SERIOUS numbers! For starters, the 9-7 SU Jaguars have been outgained by their opponents by 91 yards this season. Let's get back to Mike Vrabel. Since taking over the Tennessee job, he's a perfect 7-0 ATS against opponents coming off a double-digit win when the Titans are seeking revenge. Since the beginning of their franchise, Jacksonville is a no-show-@-the-window 2-17 SU in road finales. If the game total is @ 43 or less (currently 41 1/2), they've gone a perfect storm 0-11 SU! In the past 11 times these same Jags sit a ticket-ripping 2-9 versus the number when travelling versus .400 or worse foes. My bottom line says Doug Pederson's squad DOESN'T play up to expectations in Nashville posting a 2-6 spread mark. The last 4 weeks has seen this team get outscored 44-16 in the first half alone. It's tough to win ball games when faced with a big halftime deficit. I feel it's going to be tough for the Jags to win on the road by double-digits again (2 weeks in a row) even if the playoffs are on the line. While both teams have been struck hard with an injury bug, there's no denying the home team performs excellent in the home underdog role going 65% ATS over their last 20 (13-7) & that Vrabel EMBRACES the role of spoiler! We're off to Nissan Stadium in Nashville to play the TENNESSEE TITANS (buying to + 8 1/2 @ -220) as my 9 Star Strongest Play On The Board! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 30-2 for 94% +18,760 NET UNITS of PROFIT Mike's 2023-24 CFB Final Overall Seasonal Record: 16-7-1 for 69% + 1,490 NET UNITS of PROFIT Mike's Combined NFL/CFB Overall Record: 46-9-1 for 83% + 20,250 NET UNITS of PROFIT Mike's Private Plays Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlays: 12-4 for 75% + 3,810 NET UNITS of PROFIT Mike's ALL-FOOTBALL: +24,060 NET UNITS of PROFIT