Sunday, December 31, 2023
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL)
1:00 PM EST Indianapolis Colts Premium Pick YouWager
Play Title: Mike's Sunday Lone Howler
Play Selected: Money Line: -190
Rating: 8* (WIN)
Analysis: These 2 met last season in Las Vegas with the Colts getting the 25-20 win. The big decisions in this one looks @ Colts' WR Michael Pittman (should be a go after sitting out the Atlanta game due to being in concussion protocol after receiving a rendered cheap shot from Pittsburgh's Damontae Kazee who the NFL suspended for the season's remainder. On the Las Vegas side, it's a BIG dynamic NOT to have RB Josh Jacobs (quad injury) in the lineup for a roadie. I'm questioning the Raiders' incentives (currently rank #11 in the AFC) since to make the playoffs they'll need Indianapolis, Houston, Pittsburgh & Cincinnati to lose down the stretch while they must beat both Indy & Denver. It's a TALL task for the Silver & Black with that "rookie on the road" QB Aidan O'Connell who didn't complete a pass for the last 3 quarters @ Kansas City. The "Boys From The Desert" rank 29th of 32 in total offense. On the flip side, the Horseshoes are 8th in the NFL in offensive YPP (Yard Per Point) & get to take on new HC Antonio Pierce & his squad feeling fat & happy after getting 2 defensive TD's in upsetting the Chiefs on the road last week. After KC, they've gone a putrid 1-6 ATS the past 7. Their last 3 non-divisional travellers saw Vegas lose to Miami 20-13, to Detroit 26-14 & to Chicago 30-12. My bottom line says Colts' HC Shane Steichen will be ready for blitz packages & edge rushes by DE Maxx Crosby (13 1/2 sacks) & should employ a healthy RB now in Jonathan Taylor into the running & passing game. As far as getting to the QB, the Indy pass rush holds the edge generating 47 sacks this season to the Raiders 36. This will be a good one but I feel the home team has looked solid @ home of late in wins over 2 potential playoff teams in Pittsburgh 30-13 & Tampa Bay 27-20. We're rollin' into Lucas Oil Stadium in Indiana to play the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS on the ML -190 for 8 Stars as my Sunday Lone Howler!
Thursday, December 28, 2023
New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -7.5/100 Cleveland Browns Rating: 8* Mike's Thursday Earlybird Advantage (WIN)
To say "First Energy Flacco" is in the groove is an understatement. Even though he comes with turnovers, the Browns have consistently moved the ball through the air where WR Amari Cooper looks on the same page in a hurry with his new QB. Cleveland is now facing a BELOW average squad @ home where their average win sits @ around 8 PPG. To me, that screams HIGHER value than the ML where we'll be playing this game when you put heavy weight on the already-eliminated NY Jets having to face the #1 team in total defense in the NFL on a short week. Having said that, New York is already scoring an anemic 6 PPG their past 3 roadies. Crunching the numbers reveal Cleveland being 6-1 ATS @ home on Thursdays & a take-me-back-to-the-window 5-1 versus the number before a divisional road tilt. The Jets chime in @ a ticket-ripping 0-5 spreadwise when appearing on Thursday night. While the New York defense is ranked 3rd in total "D", it's that SAME defense that's ranked a distant 26th in YPP (Yards Per Point). Even though the Browns "D" will most likely be in prevent in the later stages of this game, I can't see high motivation on the NY defensive side & this includes CB sauce gardner who'll most likely draw the assignment on the excellent route-running Cooper. It's ironic that it was this same Joe Flacco who QB'd the Jets in Week 2 of last season when he threw for 4 TD's (2 in the final 2 minutes) for a thrilling 31-30 upset win as 6-point dogs @ this same venue. HC Kevin Stefanski (who should get HC of the Year considering his team's multiple injuries) reaches double-digit wins for the 2nd time in his 4th season since his inaugural season when he took over for Freddie Kitchens guided them to a 6-10 SU campaign.
My bottom line says we seriously have to take into account Joe Flacco's incentives & his ability to successfully STRETCH the field. Weak-armed Jets' backup Trevor Siemian will have way more than he can chew going up against a defense yielding an absurd 13 PPG @ home. Let's jet to First Energy Stadium in Ohio to play the CLEVELAND BROWNS on the ML for 8 Stars @ -330!
Playoff Scenarios: The following is a Playbook rendition of the different team-by-team scenarios after the possibility of tumultuous Week 18 results:
AFC- #1 Seed Clinched
BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-3) #1 Seed
Won AFC North, has a lone 1st-Round bye & homefield advantage through playoffs
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6)
Won AFC West - locked in as the #3 Seed
CLEVELAND BROWNS (11-5)
1st Wild Card position - locked in as the #5 Seed
These other positions are to be determined as follows:
BUFFALO BILLS (10-6), currently the #6 seed clinch AFC East Division title with:
1) Bills win
Buffalo clinches a playoff berth with:
1) Bills tie OR
2) Steelers loss or tie OR
3) Jaguars loss or tie OR
4) Texans-Colts tie
HOUSTON TEXANS (9-7) win AFC South title with:
1) Texans win + Jaguars loss or tie
Houston clinches a playoff berth with:
1) Texans win OR
2) Texans tie + Jaguars loss + Steelers loss or tie
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-7), currently the #7 seed win AFC South title with:
1) Colts win + Jaguars loss or toe OR
2) Colts tie + Jaguars loss
Indianapolis clinches a playoff berth with:
1) Colts win OR
2) Colts tie or Steelers loss or tie
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-7), currently the #4 seed win AFC South title with:
1) Jaguars win OR
2) Jaguars tie + Texans/Colts tie
Jacksonville clinches a playoff berth with:
1) Jaguars tie + Steelers loss or tie OR
2) Steelers loss + Broncos loss or tie + Texans/Colts game
does NOT end in a tie
MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-5) win AFC East title with:
1) Dolphins win or tie
Dolphins are currently AFC #2 Seed & have clinched a playoff berth
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7) clinch a playoff berth with:
1) Steelers win + Buffalo loss OR
2) Steelers win + Jaguars loss or tie OR
3) Steelers win + Texans/Colts tie OR
4) Steelers tie + Jaguars loss + Texans/Colts game does NOT
end in a tie OR
5) Jaguars loss + Broncos win + Texans/Colts game does NOT
end in a tie
NFC- #1 Seed Clinched
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (12-4) #1 Seed
Won NFC West, has a lone 1st Round bye & homefield advantage throughout playoffs
DETROIT LIONS (11-5) Clinched a playoff berth, currently #3 Seed but
can be #2 with a win & Dallas loss or tie
LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-7) Clinched a playoff berth, currently the #6 Seed
These other positions are to be determined as follows:
ATLANTA FALCONS (7-9) wins NFC South title with:
1) Falcons win + Buccaneers loss
DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5) Clinched playoff berth, currently the #2 Seed
Cowboys win the NFC East title with:
1) Cowboys win OR
2) Cowboys tie + Eagles tie OR
3) Eagles loss
GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8), currently the #7 Seed clinch a playoff berth with:
1) Packers win OR
2) Packers tie + Seahawks loss or tie + Saints loss or tie OR
3) Packers tie + Seahawks loss + Bucs loss OR
4) Packers tie + Seahawks tie + Buccaneers loss or tie OR
5) Vikings loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss OR
6) Vikings loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Saints loss
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-9) clinch playoff berth with:
1) Vikings win + Packers loss + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss OR
2) Vikings win + Packers loss + Seahawks loss + Saints loss
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-8) clinches the NFC South title with:
1) Saints win + Buccaneers loss or tie OR
2) Saints tie + Buccaneers loss
New Orleans clinches a playoff berth with:
1) Saints win + Seahawks loss or tie + Packers loss or tir OR
2) Saints tie with Seahawks loss + Packers loss
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Clinched playoff berth, currently the #5 Seed
Philadelphia wins the NFC East title with:
1) Eagles win + Cowboys loss or tie OR
2) Eagles tie + Cowboys loss
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-8) clinch a playoff berth with:
1) Seahawks win + Packers loss or tie OR
2) Seahawks win + Packers loss + Buccaneers loss or tie OR
3) SEahawks tie + Packers loss + Saints loss or tie
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-8), currently the #4 Seed win the NFC South title with:
1) Buccaneers win OR
2) Buccaneers tie + saints loss or tie
Tampa Bay clinches a playoff berth with:
1) Buccaneers win + Seahawks loss + Packers loss or tie
Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 29-2 for 94% +17,860 NET UNITS of PROFIT
Mike's CFB/NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 45-9-1 for 83% + 19,350 NET UNITS
Mike's Private Plays Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlays: 12-3 for 80% +4,080 NET UNITS
Mike's All-Football Record: + 23,430 NET UNITS of PROFIT
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