Sunday, January 01, 2017 Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -240 Philadelphia Eagles Pick Title: 9 Star NFC East Super Bowl Play (Win) Super Bowl Play? Yep, it's Philadelphia's Super Bowl. They will play it as such. I've been to see this rivalry several times live. The Eagles ALWAYS take great pride in beating the Cowpokes no matter the situation. Now that they're getting some key personnel back in the lineup (most importantly RT Lane Johnson who looks funky fresh off his 10-game suspension last week). Note that Philly is 4-1 SU WITH Johnson in the lineup! Dallas will be looking "as usual" in the 1st half for this one. But what back-up QB Tony Romo (who MIGHT play for 1 or 2 series') & the very familiar to Philadelphia 3rd-string QB Mark Sanchez (who might be playing for a back-up role if Romo is dealt in the off-season) will have looks to be more hand-offs than not. Remember, RB Ezekiel Elliott is the FRANCHISE! How many minutes HE will play CAN'T be many. Whether the Cowboys jet out to a lead or not, QB Carson Wentz HAS the tools & is 5-2 SU @ home with wins to his credit over MANY a playoff team such as Pittsburgh (34-3) & Atlanta (24-15). They also beat a then-hot 5-0 SU Minnesota team coming off 2 weeks rest (21-10). Their chemistry isn't too different from when they had Dallas on the ropes (when it meant something to them) before getting edged 29-23 @ AT&T Stadium in Arlington. The Green & Black have excellent special teams & will shine today. SIDE NOTE: ---There's extensive research this week so let's be patient & expect results with turnovers leaning in our direction. You won't see cheap over & under picks because hours of research only gets confusing. Many handicappers choose this route (check & see) but never this one. ---Because of line changes, here's the play. Let's go to Lincoln Financial Field in the "City of Brotherly Love" to play the Philadelphia Eagles on the ML as my 9 Star NFC East Super Bowl Play! Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -117 Baltimore Ravens Pick Title: 9 Star AFC North Pride Battle Royale (Loss) Both of these teams come in playing for pride. This is especially true about Baltimore whose playoff hopes were crushed by a furious Steelers' comeback in the waning minutes last Sunday. I understand that HC Marvin Lewis could be playing for his job. But having key offensive components are a totally different matter. Last week's Cincinnati game told us a whole lot. They played good enough to win against Houston but somehow K Randy Bullock's potential game-winning FG sailed wide right at the final gun for yet another 12-10 near-miss. I like the edge that Baltimore WR Stephen Smith, Sr.(should be matched up with CB Adam "Pac-Man" Jones) will be playing his final game in a Ravens' uniform & should get some targets down the field. My bottom line says that up-and-coming Ravens' RB Kenneth Dixon (4.3 YPC) will be the BEST runner on the field & rates the edge over Cincinnati's RB Jeremy Hill. The Bengals have been experimenting with their offensive line & their RB & WR positions. This should play right into the hands of DC Dean Pees & one of the best run defenses (2nd only to Dallas) in the NFL. The dagger has to be QB Andy Dalton having been sacked 40 times coming in & now having to face Terrell Suggs (team sack leader with 8) & an aggressive 3-4 defensive scheme. Let's go Paul Brown Stadium to play the team with the stronger pride in the BALTIMORE RAVENS as my 9 Star AFC North Pride Battle Royale! Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -202 Indianapolis Colts Pick Title: 9 Star AFC South Pride Survivor (Win) While the Colts have largely been a disappointment in Indy this season, there's one thing in which they HAVE BEEN consistent. Ever since the 2010 inception of divisional teams ending their regular season against a divisional opponent, Indianapolis has gone a stellar 5-1 SU that includes a perfect 4-0 SU record under HC Chuck Pagano. They've out-scored their divisional opponents (Tennessee, Jacksonville & Houston) by a decisive 115 to 60 margin (29-15 average score). The Jaguars' QB Blake Bortles & Co. have turned the ball over 27 times (3rd worst in the AFC) & are a BIG -16 turnover ratio (2nd worst in the NFL). They take on a revenge-minded Colts' team (coming off a loss to Oakland) that has NOT lost back-to-back games SU since the Weeks 1 & 2 this season. Remember that 3-12 SU Jacksonville can pick as high as second in the 2017 NFL draft but as low as 6th depending on today's results. My bottom line for this contest rests on another important intangible. The 35-year-old & 14-year veteran OLB Robert Mathis will be playing his final game so look for the Indy 3-4 defensive scheme to play their "A" game in this season finale. I believe Luck takes this game personally & will find a way to deliver a consolation prize for the home faithful. He also wants to keep his personal record of NO losing seasons since he & Pagano hooked up as QB/HC for the Horseshoes intact. Let's sharpen our handicapping tools &take off to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to play the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS to end 8-8 SU as my 9 Star AFC South Survivor! New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-110 New Orleans Saints Pick Title: 9 Star Slight Line Mover (Win) It certainly looks like this Atlanta squad is annihilating everything that's put on their schedule. But this game is much more about pride than playoff positioning. Both of these defenses aren't too great with the Falcons being rated 23rd & New Orleans chiming in @ 25th. Many accolades have been thrown to QB Matt Ryan whose 4,613 passing yards is ONLY 2nd in the NFC to QB Drew Brees (4,858 passing yards) his opponent for today. With NO ranked 1st & Atlanta 2nd in offense, there's not much that separated these 2. Even though the Falcons DID handle the Saints 45-32 in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome earlier in Week 3, WR Julio Jones comes in NOT @ 100% with a toe injury. My bottom line looks at the defensive side of the ball where the New Orleans "D" has significantly improved since DT Sheldon Rankins & WLB Dannell Ellerbee are healthy once again. These team will trade punches all afternoon. HC Sean Payton has WON his last 3 divisional finales by beating Atlanta on the road 20-17 last season, besting Tampa Bay 23-20 on the road 2 years ago & rocking the Buccaneers @ home 42-17 in 2013. Look for him to have a solid game plan to end their season 8-8 SU & on a positive note. Remember also that Saints' RB Mark Ingram gets a $100,000 bonus IF he rushes for 1,000 yards (needs 60 versus Atlanta). Let's go down for the Georgia Dome's finale to play the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (buying to +8 1/2 @ -130 with 2-point conversions a factor here) as my 9 Star Slight Line Mover! Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -152 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick Title: 8 Star Headliner Moneyliner (Win) There's not much guess work for this pick. I do know hands down that I'd rather have QB Jameis Winston's consistent effort over the herky-jerky attitude you get from QB Cam Newton. I also believe that the Buccaneers have IMPROVED GREATLY since that 17-14 outright win @ Carolina in Week 5. I believe this will be a little bit of a repeat for the Panthers (currently 6-9) who also finished 6-10 in 2011 when they fell to New Orleans in a non-significant finale. Even though there's too many things that have to happen for the Buccaneers to get in (They have to win & Washington tie coupled with a Green Bay loss--THEN Tampa Bay clinches a strength of victory tiebreaker over the Packers IF Tennessee beats Houston, Indianapolis wins over Jacksonville, Dallas holds on @ Philadelphia & San Francisco upsets Seattle ALL happen). Even though that's a very long-shot scenario, the Buccaneers will come to play. The way they've shutdown New Orleans (11 points!) & Seattle (5 points) in consecutive home starts, I more than love their chances against playing out their season Carolina. Let's go Raymond James Stadium to play the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS as my 8 Star Headliner Moneyliner! Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -145 Tennessee Titans Pick Title: 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week (Win) I feel that HC Bill O'Brien isn't a fool. He wants to head into the playoffs (Oh no! Could they be possibly playing KC @ home again?) healthy & ready. I don't believe their 5-0 SU record in the division will matter much to a team that's already lost DRE J.J. Watt. The MUSHES will eager to take Houston after Mariota went down last week. My bottom line says the Titans have a Top 10 offense that can run the ball (3rd in the NFL) & that trumps ANYTHING savage & Co. can muster in a meaningless game. Let's go to Nissan Stadium in Nashville to play the TENNESSEE TITANS as my 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -11.0/-107 Seattle Seahawks Pick Title: 8 Star Later Games Bargain (Loss) Whether or not a playoff game or position is on the line, the Seahawks have dominated the 49ers in their new stadium. They've out-scored them 39-6 the past 2 seasons. The Seattle "D" will be in a baddest of moods & should take out their frustrations on lamed duck HC Chip Kelly who will probably pull gadget plays & unorthodox maneuvers sporadically throughout. HC Pete Carroll may be lucky to move up the ladder with a "W" & some help so look for a focused effort despite the lack of RB's. Let's make way to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara to play the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (buying to -9 1/2 @ -157) as my 8 Star Later Games Bargain! NOTES: The only way a handicapper has a glimpse of a chance to win in NFL Week 17 is by having a no short-cut extensive research plan with all tweaks included. We were highly successful but was disappointed in Baltimore. Rex Burkhead 115 rushing yards? The highly-rated Ravens' rush "D" gets burned for 153 total yards rushing? In addition, I thought Flacco was unfocused for the most part. He lacked hot reads for the majority AND killed his teams' chances @ the "W" throwing those 2 INT's. Scratching head @ Seattle who dominated offensively (100+ yard edge on offense AND generated 2 TO's on "D" yet won by 2??? Get ready! Playoffs are just around the corner with 4 games this coming weekend. Week 17 record: 5-2 71% 2016-17 NFL Overall Record: 53-45 54% & going up!
 

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