Sunday, December 24, 2023 New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7/-120 Denver Broncos Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Sunday Strongest Play On The Board (LOSS) On the surface, this looks like a scary number since we have a conservative Denver offense going up against an excellent Belichick' rushing defense (ranked 2nd in the NFL). However, we DON'T base picks on only 1 aspect of the game. The 3-11 SU Patriots also rank a mediocre 16th versus the pass & are a distant 29th out of 32 in sacks. There's many OTHER things to take into account when TRULY handicapping this game correctly. You CAN'T dismiss it being bounce back time after the drubbing the Broncos took @ the hands of Detroit 42-17 on Saturday. You also can't dismiss Denver excited to be home since this is their 1st game @ Mile High in 4 weeks (coming off a brutal 3-game road trip in just 16 days). The past 8 weeks has saw an Orange Crush "D" not give up over 22 points with the exception of last week (went 6-2 SU). They now entertain a Pats' squad that's making a cross-country trip into the high altitude with a 2nd-string QB in Bailey Zappe & a banged-up offensive line. Yes, they still have RB's Ezekiel Elliott (522 rushing yards & 2 TD's) & possibly leading-rusher Rhamondre Stevenson (619 yards & 4 TD's--check status with an ankle injury). But this offense has been anemic all-season long scoring points @ an NFL-worst 13.3 PPG, ranking 28th overall in total "O" & a distant 25th on the ground. They've dropped 6 out of their last 7, are 2-7 SU the past 9 roadies& are just off their in-season Super Bowl game, a 27-17 loss @ Gillette Stadium versus Kansas City. In the 4th quarter of the season (Games 13 thru 17), NE has gone 2-7 ATS as dogs & also 2-7 versus the number off an non-divisional SU loss. It's tough to take the Tea Men seriously when the league flexes them OFF a MNF game while also having the distraction of dealing with rumors of this being Belichick's NE swan song in 2 more weeks in their home game with the NY Jets. One stat that isn't quite apparent is the stat of offensive YPP (Yards Per Point). While the 7-7 SU & playoff-alive Denver offense looks mediocre, they rank 6th in the NFL in YPP while New England chimes in @ last in the league. QB Russell Wilson still scrambles pretty well & has 2 good RB's out of the backfield as well with Javonte Williams & Jaleel McLaughlin. My bottom line says HC Sean Payton gets his Wild Horses motivated for this one (in must-win mode) knowing they also have a favorable schedule of the Chargers & Raiders up ahead in the coming weeks. It's another advantage for the Orange & Blue WR Courtland Sutton (58 receptions for 770 receiving yards & 10 TD's) to clearly be the most dangerous playmaker on the field. Crunching the numbers reveal the Eastern Seaboarders being BIG no-shows-@-the-window going 1-11 SU & ATS when faced with a NON-divisional tilt. Furthermore, Zappe looked like he was unraveling (1 fumble & 1 INT) after injuries took their toll on his offensive line versus Kansas City. Since Denver is an awesome 6-1 SU when winning the turnover war, it's an advantage to have a Broncos' team on your side that's EVEN in turnover differential facing an opponent that's @ a -9. In the long run, we have a gassed-out NE squad facing a team with EXTRA-rest. To me, that's a recipe for DISASTER with the given intangibles! Let's go to Empower Field @ Mile High to play the DENVER BRONCOS -330 on the ML for 8 Stars as my NFL Sunday Strongest Play On The Board! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Record: 27-2 for 93% Good for +16,260 NET UNITS CFB/NFL Overall Record: 41-8 for 84% + 17,390 NET UNITS of PROFIT Mike's Private Plays Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlays: 12-2 for a surreal 86% Good for +4,280 NET UNITS with a 4-Team Teaser Winner on Atlanta, Denver, Dallas & Green Bay. Mike's Overall All-Football: +21,670 NET UNITS of PROFIT