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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 15 Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 15 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek     Date: Dec 19, 2023
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Sunday, December 17, 2023 Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -3/-125 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 8* Mike's Prime-Time Playoff Ticket Puncher (WIN) Before we start pointing out the Ravens OTHER prime-timer on deck on Christmas night in San Francisco, keep in mind THIS game is an all-important AFC game with playoff ramifications attached. Why? Because Baltimore is just 6-3 in-conference with Jacksonville right behind @ 6-4 AND 2 games behind. The Black & Purple Gang know they face the NFL's hardest schedule down this stretch of 4 games so THIS is a BIGGER game than next week's inter-conference tilt. By the way, HC John Harbaugh doesn't need too much bulletin board material since these same Jaguars (close to the same scenario @ + 3 1/2) upset them 28-27 in Week 11 @ this venue last season. QB Lamar Jackson (16/6 TD/INT ratio, 2,934 passing yards plus 644 rushing yards & 5 more TD's) & RB Gus Edwards (605 yards rushing & 10 TD's) each fumbled it away then & still almost won outright. Their "D" sacked the then-healthy Lawrence 4 times.This season's rendition with new OC Todd Monken is much BETTER compared to Jacksonville's offense which is NOT clicking on all cylinders (Jags 2-4 SU & ATS @ home this season). They have QB Trevor Lawrence forced to play with a high-ankle sprain & face his 3rd consecutive & physical AFC North team (with 2 banged-up offensive tackles). They lost to Cincinnati in OT 34-31 (versus backup QB Jake Browning) before losing to Cleveland 31-27 last week with the old veteran QB Joe Flacco threading their "D" for 389 passing yards. What sets these 2 teams apart is their defenses. The Black Birds rank 2nd in total defense under 9-yr DC Mike Macdonald pressure 3-4 scheme AND lead the NFL in sacks with 49. Jaguars' DC Mike Caldwell's runs the same scheme but has a "D" ranked just 24th overall (26th versus the pass) & are a way back 26th ranked in sacks with 27. My bottom line says things should be tougher for the home team's offense since their leading in yards WR Christian Kirk is on injured reserve which forces WR Calvin Ridley to be outside more & out of the slot. They've lost key momentum down the stretch going 2-3 SU their last 5. On the flip side, I look for Jackson to isolate his talented wideouts versus replacements or a banged up secondary since CB's Tyson Campbell & Tre Herndon didn't even play last week. I love rookie RB Keaton Mitchell giving the Ravens an added dynamic besides dangerous WR's Zay Flowers (64 catches for a team-leading 673 receiving yards) & Odell Beckham, Jr. (505 yards in receptions). In the numbers reveal the Jags just 6-12 ATS as a non-divisional home dog as well as a no-show-@-the-window 0-4 versus the number off an away game versus an opponent off a home game. Baltimore is 5-1 spreadwise as back-to-back favorites & are a jalapeno-like 7-0 before a Monday night prime-timer. I look for the Ravens' "O" to find a way (ranked 6th overall, 3rd in YPP-Yards Per Point & 1st in the NFL in rushing) to get the "W" in a sharp-lined contest. Here's where we're going. We're trekking to EverBank Stadium in Florida to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS (buying to + 3 1/2 @ -290) for 8 Stars as my Prime-Time Playoff Ticket Puncher! NOTES: The Ravens did what I expected them to do with some surprises! They rushed the ball 42 times for 251 yards & controlled the clock for 34:19 (an 8.5-minute time of possession advantage). They incorporated their 2nd-year TE out of Coastal Carolina in Isaiah Likely into the offense who caught 5 passes for 70 yards since the Jacksonville secondary over-concentrated on taking away rookie WR Zay Flowers (Boston College) most of the game. Their defense shut down Jaguars' RB Travis Etienne by holding him to 31 yards & thus, made them one-dimensional. I'm still gauging how HC John Harbaugh will be approaching the 49ers game on MNF (Christmas) this week since there's a good chance they'll be facing them again in the Super Bowl. Stay tuned! Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 27-1 for 96% + 18,900 NET UNITS of PROFIT (1st in NET UNITS @ Vegastopdogs) Mike's CFB/NFL Combined Record: 41-6 for 87% + 21,430 NET UNITS - career-high Mike's Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlays Private Plays: 11-2 for a career high 85% + 4,060 NET UNITS off a 3-Teamer with Chicago, Baltimore & Seattle. Mike's ALL-Football Overall Record: + 25,490 NET UNITS (career-high)
 


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